In our recent 10-team points mock draft, the first round leaned heavily toward point guards and big men. Four point guards came off the board, along with three power forwards and two centers. Anthony Edwards was the only shooting guard selected, and no small forwards were taken. The first small forward didn't go until Amen Thompson at No. 13 overall, followed by Scottie Barnes and Cooper Flagg later in the second round.
By the middle of the draft, the board looked much different. Round 6 alone featured four small forwards: Caleb Wilson, Brandon Miller, Franz Wagner and Trey Murphy III. That tells you a lot about this year's player pool. Point guards and big men are prominent near the top, while much of the wing depth shows up later. That doesn't mean you have to force a small forward early, but you should know where each position starts to thin out.
Point guard gives you more room to wait. My third tier alone includes Tyrese Maxey, Jalen Brunson, Trae Young, Josh Giddey, Devin Booker, Tyrese Haliburton, James Harden, LaMelo Ball and Jamal Murray. If several of those players are still available, there may be no reason to reach for the position.
Small forward is different. The position has useful depth later, but the top options disappear quickly. Power forward also has a large middle group, while center is more concentrated near the top, with Nikola Jokic in his own tier and Victor Wembanyama right behind him.
This is where the board starts to matter more than the rankings. A straight ranking tells you who I value more. Tiers tell you where the drop-offs are. If several point guards remain in the same tier but only one small forward is left before a drop, that should factor into your pick. The same applies when a position has enough depth to let you wait another round.
The tiers below are based on our preseason projections and show where we see the biggest breaks at each position. The idea is simple: know where you can wait and where waiting too long could cost you.
Point guard
Thoughts on PGs:
Gilgeous-Alexander is projected for 31.3 PPG, 6.4 APG and 1.7 SPG, while Doncic is projected for 33.0 PPG, 8.9 APG and 8.5 RPG. Gilgeous-Alexander has the stronger durability track record, while Doncic brings elite production across points, rebounds and assists.
Cunningham stands alone in Tier 2. He finished sixth in fantasy points per game last season and is projected for 24.6 PPG and 9.8 APG.
The depth starts in Tier 3 with Maxey, Brunson, Young, Giddey, Booker and Haliburton. Haliburton could outperform this group if he returns to form after missing last season.
Harden, Ball and Murray make up Tier 4 and give managers another strong group if they wait at the position. Ball brings plenty of upside in Minnesota, while Harden and Murray remain reliable fantasy options.
There are also a few younger guards worth watching later, including Harper and Acuff Jr.
Point guard is deep enough that managers who miss the top two tiers should still have plenty of options later in the draft.
Shooting guard
Thoughts on SGs:
Edwards remains the top shooting guard and is projected for 30.3 PPG after setting career highs in scoring and field goal percentage last season. LaMelo Ball's arrival could help Edwards get cleaner looks without changing his role as Minnesota's primary scorer.
Mitchell is close behind him in the projections. Harden could lower some of his shot volume, but his playmaking should also create easier scoring chances.
White, Reaves and Bane make up Tier 2. White brings strong all-around production, Reaves is now the clear No. 2 option behind Doncic, and Bane remains one of the safer scoring options at the position.
Alexander-Walker, Daniels and Murray form Tier 3. They offer different paths to production, with Daniels standing out for his all-around contributions.
Edgecombe shined as a rookie but has a crowded roster with the 76ers in Year 2, while the promising Peterson is another later-round name to watch.
There is enough depth at shooting guard that managers who miss the top tier should still be able to find value in the middle rounds.
Small forward
Thoughts on SFs:
Barnes, Thompson and Flagg make up Tier 1 and give the positoin three high-end options near the top of the projections. Barnes and Thompson bring more all-around production, while Flagg has a chance to take another step in Year 2.
Irving's return should allow Flagg to play more often in a role that fits his game after Dallas used him at point guard at times last season.
Avdija and Leonard make up Tier 2. Avdija is coming off career highs in scoring and assists, while Leonard still produces at a high level when healthy.
Tier 3 is where the depth of the position stands out. Knueppel, Brown, LeBron James, Bridges and Michael Porter Jr. give managers several starting-caliber options without having to reach earlier.
Wilson and Dybantsa are two rookies worth targeting later. Wilson is projected for 17.9 PPG and 8.1 RPG, while Dybantsa is projected for 20.1 PPG and could lead the rookie class in scoring.
Small forward still has enough depth in the middle tiers that managers don't have to force the position early.
Power forward
Thoughts on PFs:
Antetokounmpo and Johnson make up Tier 1. Giannis is projected for 32.1 PPG, 11.4 RPG and 6.3 APG in his first season with Miami, while Johnson is coming off 22.5 PPG, 10.3 RPG and 7.9 APG after becoming the centerpiece of Atlanta's offense.
Tatum stands alone in Tier 2 and gives managers another reliable high-end option before the position opens up in the next group.
Durant and Siakam make up Tier 3. Durant remains one of the league's top scorers, while Haliburton's return should help Siakam get easier looks.
Williams and Mobley make up Tier 4 and are close enough in the projections that managers should not need to reach.
Tier 5 includes Banchero, Randle, Markkanen and Williamson. Randle should have a larger role in Brooklyn, while Williamson still has plenty of upside when healthy. New Orleans' crowded frontcourt could make his role less predictable.
Boozer is the rookie to watch. He is projected for 18.5 PPG and 7.9 RPG and should have a major role right away in Memphis.
Power forward still has useful depth. If you miss Giannis, Johnson or Tatum, there are several options available in the next few tiers.
Center
Thoughts on Cs:
Jokic gets his own tier. He has led fantasy basketball in points for six straight seasons and is projected for 28.3 PPG, 12.7 RPG and 10.1 APG. He remains ahead of the rest of the position.
Wembanyama stands alone in Tier 2. He is projected for 26.3 PPG, 12.2 RPG and 3.5 BPG and has the per-game production to challenge Jokic. The concern is availability after he missed 54 games over the last two seasons.
Sabonis stands alone in Tier 3 after averaging roughly 19 points, 13 rebounds and 7 assists per game over his previous three full seasons.
Sengun and Towns make up Tier 4, while Duren, Davis and Adebayo form Tier 5. Duren is coming off a big jump in production at age 22, while Davis could outperform this group if he stays healthy.
Allen, Reid and Okongwu make up Tier 6 and give managers another group of reliable options before the position opens up. Tier 7 has several players with similar projected value but very different profiles. Clingan, Kessler, Gobert, Holmgren, Embiid, Sarr, Zubac and Jackson all bring different combinations of upside, role security and injury risk.
Kessler is expected to be healthy after shoulder surgery limited him to five games last season, and his move to the Lakers should put him in a favorable spot next to Doncic.
Embiid has a much higher per-game ceiling than the rest of Tier 7, but his availability makes him harder to trust.
Ware is another later-round name to watch. He averaged nearly a double-double in roughly 22 MPG last season and could take on a larger role in Milwaukee.
Final thoughts
Managers don't need to force many positions early. Point guard and shooting guard are deep, while small forward and power forward offer more options than they did last year. Center is different at the top, with Jokic, Wembanyama and Sabonis each occupying their own tier before the position opens up. That is where tiers help. Pay attention to where the drop-offs are and where you can afford to wait.