Putting together a winning fantasy basketball roster starts with a great draft. And to have a great draft, you need to know which players to go after and which to avoid.
So which players will out-produce their average draft position (ADP) this season? Who will take their game to another level? And which players are the biggest risk to take a step backward?
Our fantasy basketball experts André Snellings, Eric Moody, Eric Karabell, Jim McCormick, Steve Alexander and Michael F. Florio offer their top sleepers, breakouts and busts for the 2026-27 NBA season.
Sleepers
Sleeper: A player who will far surpass his average draft position (ADP) in standard ESPN leagues.
Naz Reid, C/PF, Charlotte Hornets
Snellings: Reid was the NBA Sixth Man of the Year two seasons ago and had carved out a role with the Timberwolves as essentially a starter that had to come off the bench due to the depth of frontline talent in Minnesota. With his trade to the Hornets, Reid has the opportunity to show that he can produce even more as a full-time starter. Reid is an efficient scorer, a strong rebounder and defender, and one of the best 3-point shooting big men in the league. Particularly in category leagues, he is poised to return fantasy value far beyond where is selected in most drafts.
Alexander: Reid has always been one of my favorite under-the-radar players and he'll have new life this season, hopefully starting for the Hornets. I wish he was a better free throw shooter (72.8% for his career), but he only shot 1.6 of them per game last year, meaning the low volume won't hurt you too bad in that category. I expect all of his numbers to get a boost this year and he's played between 68 and 81 games in six straight seasons. The only concern is his usage rate while playing alongside Coby White, Kon Knueppel and Brandon Miller, but there should be enough to go around for Reid to eat.
Julius Randle, PF, Brooklyn Nets
Karabell: Randle's numbers and fantasy value fell quite a bit during two seasons with the Timberwolves, especially in rebounds, but there is little holding him back from high usage and big fantasy value with the barren Nets. Look at what Randle achieved statistically during his Knicks seasons, and expect a return to at least 24 PPG, 10 RPG and 5 APG for the other New York team, easily outproducing his tepid ADP, which always seemed out of line with his actual production.
Caleb Wilson, SF, Chicago Bulls
Florio: The No. 4 overall pick in this years NBA draft hit the ground running this summer. Wilson averaged 23.5 points, 7.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 2.5 blocks per game in the Summer League. That is after putting up similar numbers at North Carolina last year. He has apparently been turning heads in workouts with LeBron James, too. He will start at power forward on a Bulls team that has lots of opportunities up for grabs, both in terms of scoring and rebounding. Plus, with a current ADP of 96.3, he could be had in the double-digit rounds in some leagues. That is too much upside to pass at that price.
Anthony Black, PG/SG, Orlando Magic
McCormick: Black's career arc has been unique: once a lost lottery prospect, he took a clear step forward this past season. The big combo guard developed into a capable slasher who finished more than 70% of his attempts at the rim. With a growing playmaking repertoire and the potential to thrive in a better offensive scheme in Orlando, Black is primed to deliver value for fantasy managers.
Jaime Jaquez Jr., SF/SG, Milwaukee Bucks
Moody: Jaquez is worth keeping an eye on following his move to Milwaukee in the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade. He bounced back last season, averaging 15.4 PPG, 5.0 RPG and 4.7 APG in 28.3 minutes per game while shooting 50.7% from the floor. His improved ball-handling, shot creation and midrange game were a big part of that turnaround. Jaquez could start for the Bucks and should see more minutes alongside Tyler Herro. His ability to contribute in multiple areas gives him a chance to become a valuable fantasy contributor. I wouldn't be surprised if Jaquez sets career highs in multiple categories this season.
Breakouts
Breakout: A player who will leap into or close to the upper echelon of players at his position for the first time because of a dramatic increase in production compared with his previous seasons.
Walker Kessler, C, Los Angeles Lakers
Snellings: Kessler showed very strong per-minute and per-game stats in his last two seasons with the Jazz, averaging a solid double-double with more than three combined blocks and steals and shooting almost 70% from the field. However, injuries held him to only 63 of a possible 162 games in that span. This season, Kessler becomes the primary big man for a Lakers team featuring Luka Doncic. Doncic has made a career of making athletic big men look good on offense, and Kessler's defense and rebounding will be on full display. If he stays healthy, Kessler has top-40 potential in category leagues.
Cedric Coward, SF/SG, and Scotty Pippen Jr., PG/SG, Memphis Grizzlies
Karabell: Coward and Pippen should start at guard for a rebuilding franchise that will be vastly underrated on Opening Day. This team has exciting young talent! Coward averaged 13.6 PPG in only 25.8 MPG as a rookie, and he rebounds quite well for a guard and shoots well, too. He could average 20 PPG. Pippen, perhaps the starting point guard, boasts big upside for assists and steals. The Grizzlies have their young frontcourt with Cameron Boozer and Zach Edey, but this young backcourt, going far later in drafts, is quite underrated.
Brandon Miller, SF/SG, Charlotte Hornets
McCormick: The runway is paved for Miller's ascent; he'll be empowered with the playmaking and scoring opportunities set for a star. With usage set to spike and already elite shooting and fun defensive metrics on his side, Miller's run at prime Paul George production could begin as early as October.
Kel'el Ware, C, Milwaukee Bucks
Alexander: Ware has the kind of fantasy skill set that we dream about, specializing in blocks, threes and field goal percentage, with the ability to rebound, score and steal the ball, as well. He also improved his free throw shooting from 68.7% his rookie year to 74% last season. And while his role is undefined in Milwaukee playing behind Myles Turner, I simply believe Ware is the better player at this point. Hopefully, Taylor Jenkins will have more trust in Ware than Erik Spoelstra did last season and will play him a consistent 25 minutes per game. If that happens, look out.
Dereck Lively II, C, Dallas Mavericks
Moody: Lively can breakout if he can finally stay healthy. Injuries have limited him to just 98 games over three seasons, including seven last year. As a rookie, Lively averaged 8.8 PPG, 6.9 RPG and 1.4 BPG in only 23.5 MPG while shooting 74.7% from the floor. The Duke product is an excellent rim protector and pick-and-roll finisher who could benefit from playing alongside Cooper Flagg and Kyrie Irving. He'll share center minutes with Daniel Gafford, but if he can stay on the court and earn a larger role, double-digit rebounds and multiple blocks per game are within reach. That kind of production could push him into the upper tier of fantasy centers.
Ace Bailey, SF/PF, Utah Jazz
Karabell: The No. 5 pick in the 2025 NBA draft showed out nicely as a rookie, averaging 18.5 PPG. That is even more impressive when you factor in that he got off to a slow start. Once he was injected into the starting lineup, he showed his scoring ability that made him such a coveted prospect. As the season progresses his usage steadily climbed, reaching 26% in the final two months. His points, assists and rebounds per game all increased as well. I expect his playing time, usage and production to all take another jump in year two. He should be the focal point and top scoring option on a young Jazz team that could surprise this season.
Busts
Bust: A player who is expected to be a solid starter in standard ESPN leagues but will fail to live up to those expectations this season.
LeBron James, SF/PF, Philadelphia 76ers
Snellings: This pick is the difference between NBA impact and fantasy impact. LeBron signing with the 76ers was one of the major moves of the offseason and seemingly puts the 76ers in position to contend. However, when all five 76ers starters are healthy, LeBron projects as the fourth or even fifth option on offense. He showed last season with the Lakers that he was willing to take a smaller role behind two elite producers in Doncic and Austin Reaves, and when they all played together LeBron's fantasy production was low. In Philadelphia, playing with Tyrese Maxey, Jaylen Brown, Joel Embiid and VJ Edgecombe it is hard to imagine LeBron producing fantasy stats anywhere near where his name recognition likely causes him to be drafted.
Florio: It pains me to have LeBron as a bust, but the truth is I am avoiding all the Sixers in fantasy this season. For a team with that much talent to work, everyone must sacrifice and take a step back volume wise. While there will be big games for James, I worry about consistency and what his usage will look like on a nightly basis. Plus, I suspect James (and Embiid) will have more rest days than fantasy managers can tolerate. While there are no signs of decline, he will soon be 42 years old. The Sixers will be fun to watch, but on someone else's fantasy team.
Ja Morant, PG, Portland Trail Blazers
Karabell: This isn't the first time Morant has been nominated as a fantasy bust, even as he finally comes at discount this year. After all, he has participated in 79 games over the past three seasons. It is difficult to help any team missing two-thirds of the games. Even if Morant plays in more than 62 games for the first time in six seasons, stop expecting big numbers. He averaged 19.5 PPG last season, only 3.3 RPG, and was an awful 3-point shooter. In addition, it is quite a crowded backcourt with Damian Lillard and Jrue Holiday, though Morant can solve that issue by missing half the games.
Anthony Davis, C/PF, Washington Wizards
Moody: Davis is a bust candidate at his current ADP. He averaged 20.4 PPG, 11.1 RPG and 1.7 BPG in just 20 games last season before being traded to Washington, where he never played. Injuries continue to be a problem. Davis has missed at least 14 games in 10 of his 14 NBA seasons and has played more than 60 games just once in the past four campaigns. Now he'll have to share usage with Trae Young and No. 1 overall pick AJ Dybantsa. Davis can still put up big numbers, but I'm not comfortable drafting him at his current ADP given his injury history and the changes in Washington.
Zion Williamson, PF/C, New Orleans Pelicans
Alexander: I've heard a lot of people talking about what a pleasant surprise Williamson was last season, but I'm just not feeling it. He played 62 games and averaged 21.0 points, but he didn't make a 3-pointer, and averaged just 5.7 rebounds and 0.5 blocks. The 62 games played represent the second-most he's played in six seasons, but I still don't trust him to play in more than 50 games this year. And even if he stays healthy and plays a full season, his fantasy game is weak and he'll continue to be overdrafted simply because of his name. Let someone else draft him.
Jakob Poeltl, C, Toronto Raptors
McCormick: Not only is his actual contract an albatross, it seems Poeltl's price in fantasy is also inflated. Drafted on average as the 26th center off the board, I'd clearly rather roster players such as Kel'el Ware, Derik Queen, Edey, and Nic Claxton, all of whom go later in drafts. There will be matchups that keep Poeltl off the floor in favor of Collin Murray-Boyles, further limiting the ceiling of a defensive specialist.