Plenty of intriguing storylines have emerged just one week into the 2026-27 NBA season.
The defending Eastern and Western Conference champions have been shaky to begin their title defenses. The reigning NBA champion New York Knicks started the season 0-3 amid ring night drama, while the San Antonio Spurs dropped games against the Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder before recording their first win against the Dallas Mavericks, who were without Rookie of the Year Cooper Flagg, on Saturday.
Their struggles have allowed other contenders to take center stage, such as Luka Doncic putting up 52 points against the Utah Jazz on Sunday en route to a 3-0 start for the Los Angeles Lakers. Injuries have already started to take their toll, too. The Detroit Pistons' Jalen Duren, the Orlando Magic's Jalen Suggs and the Thunder's Jalen Williams all suffered injuries during opening week that will sideline them, with Williams being stretchered off the court.
Our analysts looked at what has surprised them the most so far, some bold predictions for the rest of the season and which newcomer made the best first impression. Then, our reporters answered the biggest questions facing 12 title contenders based on ESPN's Basketball Power Index, which projects every team's chances of making the 2027 NBA Finals.
Let's break down the best and worst moments from opening week.
Note: BPI chances account for games through the morning on Monday, Oct. 26.
Jump to a contender question:
BOS | CLE | DEN | DET
HOU | LAL | MIN | NY
OKC | PHI | SA | TOR
What has surprised you most so far?
Bobby Marks: There is still a lot of basketball left this season, but Memphis has already stood out in the first week.
The Grizzlies followed their strong preseason (3-1) with regular-season wins at home against the Utah Jazz and on the road against the Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings. Memphis' 3-0 record after opening week is its best start since the 2017-18 season.
Early-season success can be attributed to guard Ty Jerome, who appeared in only 15 games last season, and highly touted rookie Cameron Boozer. In the first three games, Jerome has scored 45, 28 and 31 points. The 104 points trail only Ja Morant for the most points in Grizzlies history through the first three games. In the win at Sacramento, Boozer became the fifth player (Ben Simmons, Oscar Robertson, Elgin Baylor and Maurice Stokes) in NBA history with at least 10 rebounds and four assists in their first three games.
From a team perspective, Memphis is winning games on the boards and with extra possessions. The Grizzlies rank first in offensive rebound percentage, second in offensive rebounds and third in second-chance points.
Overall, it's a surprising start to the season for a team that ranked 24th in ESPN's Basketball Power Index before the season.
Ben Golliver: Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs didn't lose consecutive games after the All-Star break last season, so it was jarring to see them open this season with losses to the Thunder and Rockets.
Oklahoma City squeezed the life out of San Antonio's offense, holding Wembanyama to 1-of-13 (7.7%) shooting -- easily the worst shooting performance of his four-year career. Spurs coach Mitch Johnson also deployed a four-guard starting lineup that couldn't slow down Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or reliably convert when dared to shoot from outside.
Wembanyama found more success against Houston, but the 7-foot-4 center had a potential game-tying basket stuffed at the rim by 6-7 guard Amen Thompson. After blowing lead after lead to the Knicks in the 2026 NBA Finals, the Spurs' late-game offense and Wembanyama's decision-making in clutch situations will be scrutinized all season. The early returns have been concerning for a young team with championship aspirations.
Zach Kram: I initially planned to write my answer about Mario Hezonja, who has played a much larger role than expected in Cleveland. The former No. 5 pick averaged 9.5 points in 19.5 minutes in his first two games after a six-year absence from the NBA.
But then the Knicks lost at home against Orlando to fall to 0-3 after close defeats against Philadelphia and Boston. New York has lost as many games in a week as it did during the 2026 playoffs!
One rotten week shouldn't cause real concern about New York's longer-term chances to repeat; after all, the team was frustratingly inconsistent throughout last season, as well, before finally finding its rhythm in the playoffs.
But if you squint, there are a few early warning signs worth monitoring. Mikal Bridges is averaging only 3.3 PPG on 22% shooting, and the bench hasn't been as helpful as it was during the Knicks' title run. Those trends need to change for the Knicks to reclaim their place atop the Eastern Conference.
What's the one contract situation fans should keep a close eye on?
Marks: There are actually three players we should focus on.
The first two are Tyrese Maxey and Anthony Edwards. Both players are under contract for the next three seasons, but have significant financial implications for the future. If Maxey and Edwards are named MVP or All-NBA (there is also the criteria for Defensive Player of the Year), then either player is eligible to sign a four-year, $304 million supermax extension next summer, with the first year of the deal beginning in 2029-30.
Through the first week of the season, Maxey (28.8 PPG) and Edwards (28.7 PPG) rank in the top 10 in points per game. Maxey trails only Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic and Zach LaVine in minutes per game.
The other player to watch is LaVine. On an expiring $49 million contract, LaVine ranks third in points per game (29 PPG) for the winless Kings. If he has a strong season and Sacramento continues to sit at the bottom of the standings, will there be a trade market for him closer to the February deadline?
Because LaVine's salary is more than the $15 million non-tax midlevel exception, teams over the first and second apron are not allowed to sign him if he were bought out of his contract. That eliminates the Denver Nuggets, Warriors, Knicks, Magic, Minnesota Timberwolves, Thunder and Phoenix Suns from signing LaVine.
Which newcomer made the best first impression?
Golliver: LaMelo Ball has delivered a much-needed breath of fresh air to the Timberwolves, who appear happier and less burdened than during a string of frustrating postseason exits. Though Ball's scoring has been hit or miss, his presence as a creator has paid immediate dividends for franchise guard Edwards, who torched the Heat for 45 points in the season opener.
Despite his phenomenal talent, Edwards' turnover issues, streaky outside shooting and lack of stamina have contributed to Minnesota's past playoff struggles. Ball can help with all those issues. Edwards should be spared from some playmaking duties, benefit from higher-quality looks and encounter fewer double-teams thanks to Ball, who can make aggressive defenses pay with his range, driving ability and passing instincts.
Minnesota sacrificed frontcourt depth and physicality to acquire Ball, but forwards Jaden McDaniels and Jonathan Kuminga boast good athleticism and enough size to support center Rudy Gobert. Thanks largely to Ball's impact, the new-look Timberwolves have been significantly more watchable to open the new season.
What's a bold prediction you'd like to make after seeing a week of games?
Kram: Golden State will win fewer than 30 games. Coming off a 37-win campaign, the Warriors didn't have the highest expectations this season due to injuries and a quiet summer -- but they've failed to meet even that low bar in the early going. The Warriors are 0-3, and on Sunday, they started a lineup that looked like a group you'd see in the second half of a preseason game: Brandon Williams, Gui Santos, Will Richard, Yaxel Lendeborg and Graham Ike.
Lendeborg has been one of the best rookies so far, but the Warriors have little size, little scoring outside Stephen Curry -- and little chance of contending for a playoff spot.
More questions for contenders
Boston Celtics
BPI chances to make the Finals: 22.6%
Are the Celtics living well without Jaylen Brown?
This will be the perpetual question throughout the season and likely won't be settled until it's over. Don't worry, Brown isn't interested in letting the topic go anyway. Jayson Tatum is off to an uneven start: He has played one great game, one bad game and one average game, which was Monday night in a demolition of the Chicago Bulls.
Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla is leaning into depth, playing 11-man rotations and sticking to his philosophy of bombing away from 3-point range. So far, Paul George is making 50% of his long-range attempts, which will largely define how his season is viewed. He's overpaid, yes, but the Celtics didn't pay him, and they traded for him to be plugged in as a supporting piece, not a cornerstone. They also need Mitchell Robinson -- signed to be an elite offensive rebounder and good defender -- to fill a role, though he's off to a bit of a slow start.
There's no gray area when judging Payton Pritchard's start. Back to his sixth-man job full time, Pritchard is off to a strong start after recently signing a contract extension. He had 28 points against the Bulls, showing off his lightning-fast scoring ability, which is being counted on to fill some of the offensive void left by Brown's departure. -- Brian Windhorst
Cleveland Cavaliers
BPI chances to make the Finals: 5.5%
Is there anything different about this Cavs team?
The Cavs' first game of the season looked a lot like the last time we saw them. They led by 29 points on opening night against Philadelphia, primed to make a statement about being overlooked among the contenders in the East. And then ... Cleveland became the first team in league history to blow a 20-point lead after halftime on opening night.
It mirrored Cleveland's epic collapse during Game 1 of the conference finals -- when the Cavs were up 22 points against New York but collapsed down the stretch and got swept out of the playoffs. So, are the Cavs truly an under-the-radar contender? Or will they keep running into the same wall, despite winning at least 48 games in three of the past four seasons? -- Jamal Collier
Denver Nuggets
BPI chances to make the Finals: 3.2%
Where else can the Nuggets find some depth on the roster?
The Nuggets are paying a combined $187 million to their starting lineup, leaving little for the reserves. Those financial restraints led them to a summer trade of Peyton Watson to Cleveland for a draft pick and no players in return, creating a larger need on the wing.
DeMar DeRozan arrived on a veteran minimum contract and has been productive in his first week in Denver, scoring 25 combined in 52 minutes. But the first-week revelation has been Trevon Brazile, the rookie the Nuggets drafted No. 35 out of Arkansas. In a frantic overtime win over the New Orleans Pelicans, Brazile made a handful of spectacular plays down the stretch, including two huge putbacks, a crucial steal in the final minute of regulation, a pair of leaping blocks on attempted 3s and a massive corner 3 to seal it. Denver's decreased depth won't feel as drastic an issue if Brazile continues to pop. -- Anthony Slater
Detroit Pistons
BPI chances to make the Finals: 23.8%
How will the Pistons handle being without Jalen Duren and Ausar Thompson?
Thompson should be back sooner than Duren, and Thompson is critically important to Detroit's stingy defense as arguably the league's best wing defender. Ron Holland II and Javonte Green aren't Thompson, but they're active -- especially Holland.
Duren will be out for at least two weeks before his right hamstring strain is evaluated again. Remember, the Pistons no longer have Isaiah Stewart, whom they traded to Memphis in June. Paul Reed has earned a lot of confidence from coach J.B. Bickerstaff and held his own in his matchup against small-ball center LeBron James in Philadelphia on Sunday. The Pistons have looked more mature so far this season. -- Vincent Goodwill
Houston Rockets
BPI chances to make the Finals: 6.1%
Are the Rockets a title contender now that Fred VanVleet is back?
Absolutely. The Houston Rockets won 52 games last season without VanVleet, who suffered a season-ending torn ACL before the start of training camp. With VanVleet out, Houston employed a point guard-by-committee approach that sped up the development of Amen Thompson and Reed Sheppard while enhancing the skill sets of Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun and Tari Eason.
With VanVleet back in the fold, all those players can naturally slide back into defined roles. VanVleet won't play in back-to-backs during the early part of the season, but Houston smartly added veteran guard Marcus Smart in the offseason to fill the void along with a more developed Sheppard. -- Michael C. Wright
Los Angeles Lakers
BPI chances to make the Finals: 2.9%
Are the Lakers for real after this 3-0 start?
L.A. has the No. 1 offensive rating in the league through its first three games, scoring 125.9 points per 100 possessions. Luka Doncic is averaging 34.3 points, a tick above his 33.5 average last season that earned him his second scoring title. Austin Reaves is averaging 26.7 points, which would be a career high, on a ridiculous 60/60/90 shooting clip. Walker Kessler has made 23 of his first 28 shots and leads the league in field goal percentage (82.1%) and percentage of his points that come in the paint (92%). The Lakers' offense is humming better than an a cappella group.
But L.A.'s defense hasn't shown anything yet. The Lakers rank 16th in defensive rating, allowing 112.4 points per 100 possessions. Yes, that is an improvement from last season, when they allowed 115.5 per 100 possessions. But their wins this season have come against the Golden State Warriors, LA Clippers and Utah Jazz, who are a combined 3-8 to start the season. And the Lakers had to surge back from an 18-point deficit and rely on a 52-point night from Doncic after allowing the Jazz to score 47 in the first quarter. The Lakers' awesome offense won't be enough on its own to carry them as the competition stiffens. -- Dave McMenamin
Minnesota Timberwolves
BPI chances to make the Finals: 14.7%
What's the ceiling on the LaMelo Ball experiment?
The good vibes coming out of training camp have turned into positive results for the Timberwolves to start the season. Ball has been exactly what they've needed. Edwards looks primed for the best offensive season of his career, Ball's passing has made the offense more efficient and Minnesota hasn't had to sacrifice anything on the other end of the floor, leading the league in defensive efficiency entering Monday.
So far, so good, but how far can this carry the Wolves? They look like a legit contender in the West, where San Antonio has stumbled out of the gate with some offensive issues to clean up and Oklahoma City just lost one of its best players to a serious injury. Is it possible Edwards could continue on this trajectory and get into MVP conversations by season's end? Ball's first few games have opened the door to possibilities for this Wolves season. -- Collier
New York Knicks
BPI chances to make the Finals: 11.9%
Are the Knicks experiencing a championship hangover?
Whether it's contract extensions or championship rings, nothing has gone smoothly at 33rd and 8th in Manhattan. The Knicks, who ran through the playoffs, are 30th in offensive efficiency. They have had trouble building leads, let alone sustaining them, most recently blowing a 10-point fourth-quarter cushion to the Paolo Banchero-less Magic.
Hardly anyone for New York is playing up to standard, save for Karl-Anthony Towns. The Knicks are shooting 32% from 3 and 41% overall. Bridges is averaging 3.3 points on 21.7% shooting -- something he's likely to shake out of but still worth noting. Eventually, things will turn, but Mike Brown put it bluntly: "Our crap stinks, it does." -- Goodwill
Oklahoma City Thunder
BPI chances to make the Finals: 45.5%
How can the Thunder overcome another devastating injury?
Unfortunately, Oklahoma City has a lot of experience in adjusting to the absences of its core players. A fractured pelvis sidelined Chet Holmgren for three months in 2024-25, when the Thunder won 68 games and made a championship run after the 7-footer returned to the lineup following the trade deadline. A series of injuries limited Jalen Williams to only 33 games last season, and recurring hamstring issues sidelined him for most of the playoffs, a major factor in the Thunder failing to repeat.
Now, the Thunder will be without Williams again for the foreseeable future after he suffered a gruesome ankle injury. Even after the offseason departures of key role players Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins, Oklahoma City has one of the league's deepest rosters. But the Thunder lack big wings aside from Williams, and his defensive versatility will be especially missed. -- MacMahon
Philadelphia 76ers
BPI chances to make the Finals: 22.6%
Is it time to worry about the Sixers' front court depth?
Yes, but it seems that help is on the way. The Sixers' front court has been decimated to begin the season. They have two injured big men who haven't played a game: Dominick Barlow (back) and Tacko Fall (quad). Another two have missed time to start the season: Dean Wade, who missed the opening two games because of a left ankle sprain, and Jabari Walker, who exited the Sixers' third game because of a left knee injury and missed their last loss to the Pistons.
It means a lot of small-ball lineups with LeBron James playing center -- a role James isn't hoping to fill often -- and the Sixers being significantly outrebounded. They've been outrebounded in every game this season, and by an average of 19.5 over their past two outings. Joel Embiid and Adem Bona are currently the team's only healthy centers, but the Sixers are hoping Barlow, Walker and Fall return soon. -- Kris Rhim
San Antonio Spurs
BPI chances to make the Finals: 24.8%
Have the Spurs regressed from NBA Finals form?
Spurs coach Mitch Johnson made the gutsy call to push forward the evolution of a new starting lineup. Finals standout Dylan Harper joins last season's starting lineup, alongside fellow guards Stephon Castle and De'Aaron Fox. Johnson knew the three-guard lineup would create some growing pains.
"I understand the frustrations and the tension of it. But I do believe the players and staff have, whether it's put in the thought and time to feel comfortable about what we're committing to, and then also the patience to allow things to grow organically and how they need to be to get to where they want to get to in terms of on-the-job reps, on-the-job experience against the best teams in the world in this league," Johnson said. -- Wright
Toronto Raptors
BPI chances to make the Finals: 8.0%
What has Kawhi Leonard's early impact been on the Raptors?
The Kawhi experience is already in effect. He played in the first two games -- although not that well by his standards, especially shooting the ball -- and the Raptors won both games by a combined 53 points. (OK, this was because they destroyed the Bulls by 43 in the opener, and it warped everything.)
Anyway, Leonard was a late scratch Sunday because of swelling in his left knee. The Raptors were promptly blown out in Minnesota, with Scottie Barnes going 0-of-12 from the floor in a miserable night without Leonard.
It's worth pointing out that Leonard's knee issues have largely been on his right side, where he has had at least three surgeries. This latest issue is affecting his "good" knee. But the fact that Leonard is already missing time with a worrisome knee issue in the first week of the season is a developing story. And probably predictable. (Editor's note: Leonard is expected to miss weeks due to swelling in his left knee, sources told ESPN's Shams Charania.) -- Windhorst