Welcome to The Playbook for Week 2, which kicks off on Thursday night with a game between the Lions and Bills.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
Additionally, we have folded our Shadow Reports into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we're able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best fantasy guidance each week.
If you want a more detailed look at some of this data, be sure to check out the weekly Shadow Reports: WR vs. CB Cheat Sheet. You can also take a look at the latest analysis of each team's strength of schedule as it stands at the start of the season.
All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense.
DFS values in the charts below (and their relative quality) are provided only for Sunday's main slate, which is why there are no values for any games scheduled on days other than Sunday.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
DET-BUF | CAR-ATL | NO-BAL | MIN-CHI | CIN-HOU | PIT-NE | GB-NYJ | CLE-TB
PHI-TEN | JAX-DEN | LV-LAC| SEA-ARI| WAS-DAL | MIA-SF| IND-KC | NYG-LAR
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills
Projected score: Bills 29, Lions 27
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Jahmyr Gibbs, James Cook III, Amon-Ra St. Brown, DJ Moore, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta
Fantasy scoop: Dalton Kincaid exploded for 130 yards on six targets in Week 1 and, while the production is terrific, the most notable stats pertain to his usage. Kincaid played on 77% of offensive snaps (his highest since Week 9 of 2024) and ran a route on 71% of the team's passing plays (highest since Week 6 of 2024).
We've seen big games from Kincaid before -- he scored 14-plus points six times last season, after all -- but the 2023 first-round pick has yet to emerge as a consistent fantasy option. Of course, if his Week 1 usage holds, he certainly can deliver TE1 fantasy numbers in Buffalo's offense. He's a fringe starting option against a Detroit defense that allowed a 7-87-2 receiving line to New Orleans tight ends last week.
Over/under: 56.2 (Highest)
Win probability: Bills 56% (14th highest)
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
Projected score: Falcons 23, Panthers 22
Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Tetairoa McMillan
Fantasy scoop: Jalen Coker exploded for eight catches, 138 yards and two touchdowns on a team-high nine targets against the Bears on Sunday. Coker was Carolina's clear No. 2 target, as he and McMillan were the only Panthers to clear five targets. Coker is now firmly on the fantasy radar, but boom/bust production is likely.
Of the 22 career games in which he's played over 50% of Carolina's snaps, Coker has reached 14.0 fantasy points eight times but has been held under 8.0 points 12 times. On the plus side, he's now produced 16-plus fantasy points in three straight games tracing back to last season. Consider Coker to be a fringe WR3 against Atlanta.
Over/under: 44.5 (12th highest)
Win probability: Falcons 54% (Lowest)
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
Projected score: Bears 27, Vikings 23
Lineup locks: Caleb Williams, Aaron Jones Sr., D'Andre Swift, Justin Jefferson, Luther Burden III, Rome Odunze, Colston Loveland
Fantasy scoop: The Bears scored eight offensive touchdowns in Week 1, yet Burden (9.5 points), Odunze (7.2) and Loveland (0.0) were all fantasy disappointments. Do not fret! Loveland (team-high 25 routes), Burden (second with 21) and Odunze (fourth with 18), who was limited early after being questionable to play, remained the core of the passing game -- and that will translate to production in future weeks.
Kalif Raymond was the star of the passing game (8-84-0 on nine targets) but does not make for a particularly appealing waiver add. The 32-year-old receiver is a career depth player who has yet to finish any season with more than 652 scrimmage yards -- he's been held under 300 in both of the last two seasons. Raymond will hit for the occasional big play here or there, but he's too far down the totem pole in Chicago when everyone is healthy. Expect Raymond, who has 10 touchdowns in as many seasons, to disappear from the fantasy radar in short order.
Over/under: 51 (4th highest)
Win probability: Bears 64% (12th highest)
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tennessee Titans
Projected score: Eagles 25, Titans 16
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith
Fantasy scoop: The Eagles' new-look WR room was on display on Sunday, and the usage was as follows: Smith (50 snaps, 25 routes, six targets), Dontayvion Wicks (48 snaps, 24 routes, four targets), Makai Lemon (35 snaps, 23 routes, four targets), Darius Cooper (eight snaps, one route, zero targets) and Hollywood Brown (zero snaps).
Wicks hit for a long touchdown in the win, but with Hurts attempting only 25 passes, the unit's overall production wasn't very impressive (a combined 8-121-1 receiving line). Smith remains a lineup lock as the clear No. 1 receiver, whereas Wicks and Lemon are playing enough that they'll likely cancel each other out as potential flex options. Both should be on benches against the Titans.
Over/under: 40.9 (14th highest)
Win probability: Eagles 80% (5th highest)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots
Projected score: Patriots 22, Steelers 18
Lineup lock: Rhamondre Stevenson
Fantasy scoop: A.J. Brown (high ankle sprain) was placed on IR, which opens the door for additional work for New England's other receivers. In Week 1, DeMario Douglas paced the group in routes (29) and targets (seven), with Mack Hollins (19 routes, five targets), Romeo Doubs (25 routes, three targets) and Kyle Williams (seven routes, zero targets) also involved. Doubs was held without a single catch in his Patriots debut, but his pricey offseason signing suggests he'll replace Brown as Drake Maye's top perimeter target. The ex-Packer is your best bet if you're looking for a Week 2 flex option from this group.
Over/under: 40.3 (15th highest)
Win probability: Patriots 67% (10th highest)
Green Bay Packers @ New York Jets
Projected score: Packers 23, Jets 22
Lineup locks: Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Christian Watson, Tucker Kraft
Fantasy scoop: It was a two-headed committee in the Green Bay backfield in Week 1. Veteran Chris Brooks paced the backfield in snaps (37) but was held to seven carries for 29 yards and totaled just one target on nine routes. Much-hyped MarShawn Lloyd played on 30 snaps but turned 13 carries into only 37 yards (2.8 YPC). He was a nonfactor in passing situations (six routes, one target). Granted, the Packers were dealing with a good Vikings defense, but Lloyd and Brooks combining for 6.6 fantasy points on 20 touches is a sign that neither is an ideal fantasy start. Lloyd is the preferred choice if you need a flex.
Over/under: 45.3 (11th highest)
Win probability: Packers 56% (15th highest)
Cleveland Browns @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected score: Buccaneers 24, Browns 15
Lineup locks: Bucky Irving, Emeka Egbuka
Fantasy scoop: The Cleveland offense struggled in Week 1 and is now without a single lineup lock here in Week 2. Quinshon Judkins (12 carries for 33 yards, 17 yards on two targets) and Harold Fannin Jr. (21 yards on three targets) barely made a mark in the season opener and both have fallen to "borderline starter" territory. Denzel Boston (24 routes, four targets), KC Concepcion (15 routes, five targets, three carries) and Jerry Jeudy (20 routes, four targets) were all involved at wide receiver. However, unless one emerges as a clear No. 1, none will make for a reliable WR3/flex option.
Over/under: 38.7 (Lowest)
Win probability: Buccaneers 82% (2nd highest)
New Orleans Saints @ Baltimore Ravens
Projected score: Ravens 27, Saints 19
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Chris Olave, Zay Flowers
Fantasy scoop: Travis Etienne Jr. doesn't quite make the lineup-lock list after underwhelming Week 1 usage. The ex-Jaguar was utilized in a three-headed committee and racked up nine carries and nine targets on 50 snaps (21 routes). Kendre Miller handled nine carries on 26 snaps (zero targets on four routes) and CJ Donaldson came out of nowhere to handle two carries and two targets on 14 snaps (five routes).
Etienne's total of 18 opportunities is inflated by an overtime game that afforded the New Orleans offense 86 snaps. He handled a healthy 17% target share but only 39% of the designed runs. He totaled 78 yards on his 16 touches. Etienne's usage did increase as the game went on, which is a good sign, but it's now fair to wonder how involved Alvin Kamara will be when he returns (perhaps this week). Etienne remains a fringe RB2, but he'll need more work in the running game if he's going to provide consistent fantasy value.
Over/under: 46.6 (7th highest)
Win probability: Ravens 78% (7th highest)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans
Projected score: Texans 24, Bengals 22
Lineup locks: Chase Brown, David Montgomery, Ja'Marr Chase, Nico Collins, Tee Higgins
Fantasy scoop: Montgomery should be in lineups this week following his three-TD performance in Week 1, but beware that we likely just saw his best performance of the season. Montgomery (37 snaps, 20 carries, 12 routes, three targets) played on just one more snap than running mate Woody Marks (36 snaps, nine carries, 16 routes, one target). The three scores bailed out some rough efficiency, as he totaled only 60 yards on the 20 rushing attempts (3.0 YPC). Montgomery is the team's clear lead rusher and goal-line option, which will keep him in the RB2/flex mix, but it's unlikely he'll do much in the passing game. He hasn't cleared 36 catches in a season since 2021.
Over/under: 46.7 (6th highest)
Win probability: Texans 58% (13th highest)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos
Projected score: Broncos 25, Jaguars 21
Lineup locks: Jaylen Waddle, Courtland Sutton, Parker Washington
Fantasy scoop: The Jaguars backfield was a near-even split in Week 1, with Bhayshul Tuten (27 snaps, 15 carries, nine routes, one target) holding a slight edge over Chris Rodriguez Jr. (23 snaps, six carries, 10 routes, zero targets). Ameer Abdullah (five snaps, four carries, one route, one target) and LeQuint Allen Jr. (one snap, one route) were afterthoughts.
Tuten was easily the most productive back, totaling 88 yards on 16 touches, compared to 23 yards on six carries for Rodriguez. Rodriguez running more routes than Tuten is notable, though it's possible that work shifts to passing-down specialist Allen once he's 100% healthy. In the meantime (and especially in a tough matchup against Denver in Week 2), this is a backfield best avoided, with Tuten barely on the deep-league flex radar.
Over/under: 45.7 (9th highest)
Win probability: Broncos 66% (11th highest)
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers
Projected score: Chargers 28, Raiders 18
Lineup locks: Ashton Jeanty, Omarion Hampton, Ladd McConkey, Brock Bowers
Fantasy scoop: There was some question as to how the Chargers would distribute backfield touches this season and we got our first look at the dynamic in Week 1. Unsurprisingly, Hampton was the lead rusher, handling 12 of the team's 16 carries, but he played on only 57% of snaps and was held without a target on seven routes. Keaton Mitchell totaled four carries and zero targets on 16 snaps (10 routes), whereas Kimani Vidal had zero opportunities on four snaps.
Granted, the Chargers ran only 51 offensive snaps, but Hampton will require a moderate-or-better passing-game role in order to pay off his costly ADP. He remains a lineup lock, whereas Mitchell is an end-of-bench stash at best.
Over/under: 45.8 (8th highest)
Win probability: Chargers 81% (3rd highest)
Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys
Projected score: Cowboys 31, Commanders 23
Lineup locks: Dak Prescott, Jayden Daniels, Javonte Williams, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Terry McLaurin
Fantasy scoop: As expected, Washington operated a "backfield by committee" in Week 1, but one of the backs did stand above the rest. Jacory Croskey-Merritt turned 33 snaps into a 16-63-1 rushing line, whereas Rachaad White was limited to 7-22-0 rushing on 27 snaps and rookie Kaytron Allen went 4-16-0 on just seven snaps.
None of the trio was effective in the passing game (a combined -2 yards on three targets), though Croskey-Merritt and White each ran 14 routes. Croskey-Merritt's rushing effectiveness is nothing new (4.6 YPC as a rookie), but the boost in passing involvement is notable after he averaged only 6.7 routes and 0.8 targets per game as a rookie. Obviously, one target isn't going to cut it, but it's enough to make him a borderline flex option in deeper leagues in Week 2. White should remain on benches.
Over/under: 54.1 (2nd highest)
Win probability: Cowboys 79% (6th highest)
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
Projected score: Seahawks 26, Cardinals 17
Lineup locks: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Trey McBride
Fantasy scoop: Two running backs were selected in the first round of April's draft and the former Notre Dame duo will be on the field together this week in Arizona. No. 4 overall pick Jeremiyah Love was limited in his pro debut, totaling only 11 carries, 14 routes and four targets on 32 snaps. He played second fiddle to Tyler Allgeier (17 carries, 12 routes and two targets on 41 snaps) in rushing situations, but was ahead in passing situations. It's likely that Love's role will progressively grow moving forward, but in a tough matchup against Seattle, he's no more than a fringe top-20 fantasy back.
The same goes for Jadarian Price, who totaled 10 carries, 11 routes and two targets on 24 snaps in his pro debut. He split work with George Holani (eight carries, seven routes and one target on 21 snaps) but was effective, totaling 52 yards on his 10 rushing attempts. Price's role also may expand this week, but especially with Sam Darnold sidelined, expectations should certainly be limited.
Over/under: 43.7 (13th highest)
Win probability: Seahawks 80% (4th highest)
Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers
Projected score: 49ers 31, Dolphins 15
Lineup locks: Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, De'Von Achane, Mike Evans
Fantasy scoop: Miami is in search of a No. 1 receiver and Caleb Douglas made his case for the gig on Sunday. The third-round rookie soaked up seven targets (26% share) and led Miami in receptions (five) and yardage (94). That yardage number is sixth-highest among rookie receivers in Week 1 over the past decade, with only Hollywood Brown, Terry McLaurin, Puka Nacua, Ja'Marr Chase and A.J. Brown ahead of him.
Douglas (playing on 45 of the team's 50 snaps) and Malik Washington (49), who had a team-high eight targets, were the Dolphins' clear one-two punch at receiver, with no others clearing 50% of snaps. Douglas should be on rosters, but he's not yet on the flex radar in Miami's Malik Willis-led offense, especially this week against a 49ers defense that held Matthew Stafford to only 155 yards (and zero touchdowns) in Week 1.
Over/under: 45.6 (10th highest)
Win probability: 49ers 95% (Highest)
Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs
Projected score: Chiefs 26, Colts 20
Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Kenneth Walker III, Rashee Rice, Tyler Warren
Fantasy scoop: Alec Pierce was limited in Week 1, which was the expectation after offseason surgery cost him all of training camp and preseason. The good news is that, while Pierce was limited to 58% of snaps, he still ran 21 routes (only eight away from Josh Downs' team lead) and led the team in targets (six), air yards (52) and receiving yards (61).
Also as expected, Pierce's route tree was more diverse, as his 8.7 aDOT was over 10 full yards below his league-high marks in 2024 (21.6) and 2025 (18.8). We can expect fewer splash plays, but more consistent fantasy output from Pierce moving forward. However, he's still best viewed as a WR3/flex until he returns to an every-down role. That's especially the case this week against a Chiefs defense that held Denver's wide receivers to 55 yards on 15 targets on Monday.
Over/under: 46.7 (5th highest)
Win probability: Chiefs 70% (9th highest)
New York Giants @ Los Angeles Rams
Projected Score: Rams 30, Giants 22
Lineup locks: Jaxson Dart, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Malik Nabers, Davante Adams, Isaiah Likely
Fantasy scoop: The Giants' running back usage in Week 1 was as follows: Cam Skattebo played on 41 snaps, ran for 81 yards (one TD) on 18 carries and was held without a target on nine routes; Devin Singletary played on 25 snaps, ran for 16 yards on six carries and ran 18 routes, which resulted in a 4-22-1 receiving line on four targets.
The roles were clearly defined, with Skattebo operating as the primary rusher and Singletary as the passing-down specialist. The backfield dynamic could change this week (or soon) if Najee Harris is active ahead of Tyrone Tracy Jr. (two snaps, one fumble on Sunday), but Skattebo should at least be cemented as the team's primary early-down and goal-line option. That's enough to put him in the weekly RB2 discussion, but his upside will be severely capped if he doesn't see a few targets each game.
Over/under: 51.5 (3rd highest)
Win probability: Rams 76% (8th highest)