Expected fantasy points (xFP) strip away player talent and efficiency and focus solely on opportunity.
FORP -- fantasy points over replacement player -- is the difference between a player's actual fantasy point total (FF points) and his xFP (expected total).
Running back adjustments are made as follows:
Rushing attempts: No change
Rushing yardage: Rush attempts multiplied by a rusher's expected yardage based on position, in-box defenders and rush direction
Rushing touchdowns: Rushing xTD
Targets: No change
Receptions: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected catch rate based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving yardage: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected yardage based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving touchdowns: Receiving xTD
Two-point conversions: xTD multiplied by the league average two-point rate
Fumbles lost: Touches multiplied by the league average rate
Return touchdowns: Excluded due to extreme rareness and randomness
Here is the 2026 xFP leaderboard for running backs:
2026 xFP & xTD leaderboards 2026 xFP: Running backs (incl. adjusted stats) Rk. Player xFP Actual FORP G Ru Yd Ru TD Rec Re Yd Re TD 1. Jahmyr Gibbs , DET 170 171 1 6 592 8 32 246 1 2. Ashton Jeanty , LV 147 122 -25 7 452 5 34 290 2 3. Christian McCaffrey , SF 142 144 2 7 355 7 33 272 1 4. Kenneth Walker III , KC 138 148 10 6 522 7 20 150 2 5. Jonathan Taylor , IND 137 138 0 7 635 6 21 148 0 6. D'Andre Swift , CHI 137 123 -14 7 526 8 21 138 0 7. Derrick Henry , BAL 134 123 -11 7 655 9 10 68 0 8. Javonte Williams , DAL 133 131 -2 7 478 9 18 132 0 9. Bijan Robinson , ATL 132 146 14 7 588 4 27 184 0 10. Kyren Williams , LAR 129 137 8 7 408 4 32 262 2 11. Bucky Irving , TB 107 110 2 7 531 3 18 123 1 12. Tony Pollard , TEN 102 88 -14 7 490 5 12 92 0 13. Jaylen Warren , PIT 98 120 21 7 447 1 26 185 1 14. James Cook III , BUF 98 114 16 6 501 4 12 80 0 15. Chase Brown , CIN 95 75 -20 6 361 2 26 187 1 16. Chuba Hubbard , CAR 93 108 15 6 433 3 15 99 1 17. Quinshon Judkins , CLE 88 80 -8 6 397 2 18 114 1 18. Emanuel Wilson , SEA 86 75 -11 7 481 4 6 53 0 19. Bhayshul Tuten , JAC 85 88 3 6 437 3 12 77 1 20. Aaron Jones Sr. , MIN 80 74 -6 6 452 1 15 107 0 21. Rhamondre Stevenson , NE 78 87 8 7 333 2 19 142 0 22. J.K. Dobbins , DEN 76 58 -18 7 384 4 8 59 0 23. Braelon Allen , NYJ 75 76 1 7 396 2 15 106 0 24. Woody Marks , HOU 75 63 -12 7 339 3 14 103 0 25. Ollie Gordon II , MIA 74 65 -8 6 302 5 7 43 0 26. Cam Skattebo , NYG 73 70 -2 7 426 2 10 75 0 27. Omarion Hampton , LAC 66 58 -9 6 346 3 9 56 0 28. MarShawn Lloyd , GB 64 49 -14 7 238 2 13 93 1 29. Alvin Kamara , NO 62 66 4 6 190 1 21 150 0 30. Tyler Allgeier , ARI 62 48 -14 7 261 2 14 101 0 31. RJ Harvey , DEN 61 67 7 6 107 1 24 155 1 32. Kendre Miller , NO 61 39 -22 6 244 3 11 69 0 33. Jeremiyah Love , ARI 60 51 -9 5 293 1 11 90 1 34. Blake Corum , LAR 56 70 13 7 270 1 12 89 0 35. Kyle Monangai , CHI 56 59 4 4 273 3 4 31 0 36. George Holani , SEA 54 36 -19 7 168 3 11 76 0 37. Jacory Croskey-Merritt , WAS 49 45 -4 5 311 1 5 34 0 38. Rachaad White , WAS 49 49 0 5 168 1 13 90 1 39. David Montgomery , HOU 48 46 -3 5 220 2 6 47 0 40. Breece Hall , NYJ 47 43 -4 3 221 2 9 57 0 41. Kaelon Black , SF 46 31 -16 7 244 2 4 31 0 42. Keaton Mitchell , LAC 45 37 -8 6 171 0 13 79 1 43. Kenny Gainwell , TB 45 39 -6 7 148 0 13 95 1 44. Dameon Pierce , PHI 44 30 -14 3 166 2 8 61 0 45. Rico Dowdle , PIT 41 33 -8 4 135 0 14 96 0 46. Brian Robinson Jr. , ATL 41 53 13 6 242 1 5 39 0 47. Saquon Barkley , PHI 40 38 -2 5 194 1 7 48 0 48. Travis Etienne Jr. , NO 40 31 -9 3 140 1 11 72 0 49. De'Von Achane , MIA 38 25 -13 3 154 1 8 82 0 50. Samaje Perine , CIN 36 38 2 6 139 1 7 62 0 51. Justice Hill , BAL 35 35 1 7 97 0 14 87 0 52. TreVeyon Henderson , NE 34 34 -1 6 229 0 6 41 0 53. Tyjae Spears , TEN 33 27 -6 6 88 0 14 93 0 54. Mike Washington Jr. , LV 33 30 -3 7 178 1 5 43 0 55. Roschon Johnson , CHI 32 28 -4 7 99 1 7 62 1 56. Kimani Vidal , LAC 30 34 4 6 96 0 8 70 1 57. Bam Knight , ARI 30 24 -5 7 109 1 5 46 0 58. Pierre Strong Jr. , GB 29 17 -12 3 71 1 9 55 0 59. Jadarian Price , SEA 29 14 -15 3 129 1 4 50 0 60. Will Shipley , PHI 28 20 -8 5 88 1 6 50 0 61. Chris Rodriguez Jr. , JAC 27 30 3 6 170 1 1 10 0 62. Emmett Johnson , KC 25 26 1 6 84 0 9 57 0 63. Tyrone Tracy Jr. , NYG 25 32 7 7 90 1 5 40 0 64. Seth McGowan , IND 25 19 -6 7 138 1 4 29 0 65. Kyle Juszczyk , SF 24 28 3 6 0 0 8 82 1 66. Najee Harris , NYG 24 11 -13 5 133 2 1 7 0 67. Tank Bigsby , PHI 23 17 -6 4 123 1 4 20 0 68. Devin Singletary , NYG 22 34 11 4 82 0 7 46 0 69. Jordan Mason , MIN 22 19 -4 2 135 1 2 11 0 70. Corey Kiner , NE 22 17 -6 7 157 1 2 11 0 71. Tyler Goodson , DAL 22 10 -13 5 101 0 4 30 0 72. Josh Jacobs , GB 22 20 -2 1 51 1 5 46 1 73. Raheim Sanders , CLE 22 23 1 5 42 0 10 66 0 74. Chris Brooks , GB 20 12 -8 4 65 1 4 33 0 75. Kaleb Johnson , GB 19 10 -9 6 123 1 2 16 0 76. CJ Donaldson , NO 19 11 -8 7 66 1 4 36 0 77. Ty Johnson , BUF 19 28 9 4 9 0 10 72 0 78. Jonah Coleman , DEN 18 24 5 3 80 1 4 29 0 79. Sione Vaki , DET 16 15 -1 6 74 0 4 31 0 80. Sean Tucker , TB 15 20 5 5 60 2 0 0 0 81. Jaleel McLaughlin , CLE 15 19 4 6 54 0 5 35 0 82. Isaiah Davis , NYJ 14 15 1 7 47 0 5 32 0 83. Jaylen Wright , MIA 12 4 -9 5 88 0 1 6 0 84. Tyler Badie , DEN 12 17 5 5 27 0 5 38 0 85. Dylan Laube , LV 12 10 -2 7 24 1 4 24 0 86. Austin Ekeler , WAS 12 10 -2 3 40 0 4 26 0 87. AJ Dillon , CAR 11 7 -5 4 72 0 2 12 0 88. Jonathon Brooks , CAR 10 9 0 2 40 0 2 22 0 89. Ameer Abdullah , JAC 10 7 -3 6 46 0 2 17 0 90. LeQuint Allen , JAC 9 3 -6 6 5 0 3 25 0 91. Kaytron Allen , MIA 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 91. Kaytron Allen , WAS 8 4 -4 4 56 0 0 0 0 92. Audric Estime , CLE 8 8 0 1 38 1 0 0 0 93. Alec Ingold , LAC 8 7 -2 5 0 0 3 31 0 94. Hunter Luepke , DAL 8 7 -1 7 19 0 3 23 0 95. Velus Jones Jr. , SEA 7 4 -4 6 43 0 1 5 0 96. Ray Davis , BUF 7 8 1 6 23 0 3 18 0 97. Elijah Mitchell , PHI 7 6 -1 1 14 0 3 23 0 98. DeeJay Dallas , MIN 7 8 1 6 11 0 3 26 0 99. Dylan Sampson , CLE 7 11 4 2 27 0 2 17 0 100. Trevor Etienne , CAR 6 4 -2 2 31 0 2 11 0 101. Demond Claiborne , MIN 6 4 -2 4 27 0 2 11 0 102. Brady Russell , SEA 5 7 2 7 0 0 3 20 0 103. Jawhar Jordan , HOU 5 12 7 1 26 0 1 6 0 104. Jeremy McNichols , WAS 5 1 -3 1 23 0 0 0 0 105. Nicholas Singleton , TEN 4 1 -3 3 33 0 0 5 0 106. Ronnie Rivers , LAR 4 3 -1 2 24 0 1 6 0 107. Connor Heyward , LV 4 4 0 7 14 0 1 18 0 108. DJ Herman , MIA 4 3 -1 6 0 0 2 22 0 109. Patrick Ricard , NYG 4 1 -3 7 0 0 2 17 0 110. Andrew Beck , NYJ 4 0 -4 7 3 1 0 0 0 111. Jordan James , SF 4 4 1 5 19 0 1 6 0 112. Travis Homer , PIT 3 2 -2 6 20 0 0 0 0 113. Michael Carter , TEN 3 2 -1 2 14 0 1 6 0 114. Emari Demercado , DAL 3 2 -1 2 25 0 0 0 0 115. Khalil Herbert , ATL 3 4 1 1 10 0 1 5 0 116. Lan Larison , NE 3 3 0 1 0 0 2 10 0 117. Reggie Gilliam , NE 2 1 -1 4 0 0 1 10 0 118. Anthony Tyus III , CAR 2 8 6 4 14 0 0 0 0 119. Carson Steele , PHI 2 1 -1 2 0 0 1 10 0 120. Brashard Smith , KC 2 1 -1 5 0 0 1 6 0 121. Rasheen Ali , BAL 2 2 0 7 17 0 0 0 0 122. Michael Burton , CLE 2 0 -2 7 3 0 1 6 0 123. Lew Nichols III , PIT 2 1 -1 5 8 0 0 0 0 124. Adam Prentice , DEN 2 2 0 7 5 0 1 5 0 125. Max Bredeson , MIN 2 0 -2 6 0 0 1 6 0 126. Tahj Brooks , CIN 1 1 -1 6 12 0 0 0 0 127. Craig Reynolds , WAS 1 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 0 128. Frank Gore Jr. , BUF 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 0 129. Kalel Mullings , TEN 0 0 0 2 4 0 0 0 0 130. Jacob Saylors , DET 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 131. Kene Nwangwu , NYJ 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 132. Eli Heidenreich , PIT 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 133. Josh Williams , TB 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
