Week 10 betting preview: Analysis, best bets, TD predictions for Sunday

Wek 10 of the NFL season is already upon us. We've looked at the games, the odds and available props in hopes of trying to find the best value for bets.

Ben Solak leans on his expertise in player evaluation and the X's and O's to find edges, while Seth Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets, focusing mainly on defense. Matt Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts positive matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league. Also included are fantasy projection creator Mike Clay's top predicted anytime TD scorers.

Results will be tracked throughout the season, with flat one-unit wagers for each listed bet. Let's get into it.

Note: Odds by DraftKings and subject to change.

Jump to:
Bowen's favorite bets
Solak's plays | Walder's props
Clay's TD projections

Bowen's favorite bets

We'll start with our game pick this week with the Chiefs-Falcons matchup in Atlanta. Plus, I have multiple teasers for the Week 10 slate, and I'll add a player prop on a wide receiver who is creating explosive plays at a high rate.

Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons
1 p.m. ET on CBS; Line: KC -3, O/U: 46.5

The Chiefs added wide receiver Josh Downs at the trade deadline, giving Patrick Mahomes a slot target who can create numbers after the catch. The foot quickness is there to uncover. But I like the Chiefs to cover as a road favorite because of the run game with Kenneth Walker III and Steve Spagnuolo's defense. Walker is a difference-maker in Andy Reid's offense, averaging 23.1 touches and 130.5 scrimmage yards. He'll find daylight against an Atlanta defense giving up 4.4 yards per carry (22nd in the league), and Reid can use the heavy run action to influence linebackers on play-action concepts. Defensively, Spagnuolo's unit will mix late rotation, Cover 2 and pressure against a Falcons offense that is lacking passing rhythm right now. And quarterback Michael Penix Jr. has struggled against the blitz this season (48.4 QBR).

Two-team, 6.5-point teaser (-143): Cleveland Browns +11 vs. Houston Texans, San Francisco 49ers +3 at Dallas Cowboys

Deshaun Watson is expected back under center, and Cleveland will have enough answers in the pass game to make plays against the Texans' core zone schemes. The Browns will need more rushing efficiency from Quinshon Judkins, but I feel comfortable with the altered spread at home because of a Cleveland pass defense that matches up well with Houston. In the other matchup in this teaser, Kyle Shanahan can scheme up a Dallas defense that is giving up 26.8 points and 372.7 yards per game. Look for play-action early with Brock Purdy targeting the seams and deep in-breakers, while the 49ers' defense creates issues for Dak Prescott and the Cowboys' passing game.

Two team, 6.5-point teaser (-135): Minnesota Vikings +9.5 at Green Bay Packers, Buffalo Bills -2 at New York Jets

The trade for Kirk Cousins should create more volume and production for Justin Jefferson, and that will open more daylight for the Vikings' run game. But I'm taking Minnesota, with the spread being bumped to +9.5 points, because of Brian Flores' defense. I expect more zone pressure here because of the vertical ability of both Christian Watson and Matthew Golden, but the Vikings will look to create chaos for Jordan Love. I like the Bills in the other matchup. Coach Joe Brady will have pressure answers for Josh Allen to get the ball out (catch-and-run targets for DJ Moore and Khalil Shakir), and don't be surprised if the Bills lead with a run-heavy approach to control tempo.

Jameson Williams longest reception OVER 24.5 yards (-112)

Williams has had a reception of 24 or more yards in five straight games. With his vertical ability, plus the dynamic open-field speed he displays after the catch, I like Williams to hit the over against New England.

Solak's plays

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Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 at Cincinnati Bengals

I unsuccessfully faded the Bengals last week against the Falcons in Madrid, but I'm back again with them facing the Steelers, a franchise known for its strong performance as a small underdog under Mike Tomlin that might still retain a bit of that magic under Mike McCarthy.

I love the Steelers' potential to keep this game close because they have the sort of ball-control, run-heavy offense that can minimize the number of possessions Joe Burrow gets in this game. Since Week 3, when Pittsburgh rejiggered the right side of its offensive line, the Steelers are third in success rate and first in EPA on rushing snaps; no team has a higher explosive run rate, and it isn't close. When they faced the Bengals in Week 3, Jaylen Warren had 17 carries for 127 yards. Now, Rico Dowdle is back to help.

The Steelers are also big on targeting the backs and tight ends in the passing game, which is where you want to go after this Bengals defense, and the lingering ankle injury to DJ Turner II also makes Cincinnati fairly weak in the secondary. It's a divisional game, and the Bengals are too hot and cold to trust with more than a field goal against a Steelers team off the bye.

Rico Dowdle receiving yards OVER 13.5 (-114)

Dowdle returned to the Steelers' lineup in Week 6 and had seven routes to Warren's 27 in that game against the Buccaneers. But he was targeted on four of those seven routes, and since then has 24 routes and six targets to Warren's 22 routes and six targets. The receiving volume has been fairly split since his return, and rightfully so -- Warren has been an exceptional between-the-tackles runner this season, and Dowdle has always been a capable pass catcher.

Yet, Warren is projected for 25.5 yards and 3.5 receptions, whereas Dowdle is at 13.5 and 2.5. Given how willingly Aaron Rodgers targets the backs and how poor the Bengals' linebackers are in coverage and at tackling in the open field, backfield receiving production should be a strong part of Pittsburgh's offensive approach, and Dowdle is the far cheaper option in what should be near a 50/50 opportunity split.

Keep an eye on this number live. If Warren starts out the first quarter taking most of the snaps on a couple of Pittsburgh three-and-outs, Dowdle's numbers will drop even more, and I'll start looking for live alts.

Tutu Atwell receiving yards OVER 30.5 (-109)

It's worth wondering just who it is that is going to catch passes for the Los Angeles Rams. Star wide receiver Puka Nacua -- who had 19 targets and 14 receptions on 43 routes last week against the Commanders -- joins Davante Adams and Jordan Whittington on the injured reserve bench. Tight end Terrance Ferguson is also probably out for Sunday's game at Arizona.

The two primary route runners behind Nacua at receiver last Sunday were Konata Mumpfield and Atwell, the latter of whom was targeted five times for two receptions and 16 yards. Atwell ended the day with 37 unrealized air yards -- that is to say, he had 53 air yards to the 16 receiving yards he actually produced. In back-to-back weeks, he has had at least 50 air yards on 17 and 20 routes, respectively. Given the thinness of the Rams' receiver room, 20 routes should be a floor projection for Atwell, as long as the Cardinals' offense can keep things competitive with Carson Beck under center. Even if they can't, Atwell's downfield usage can get us home on one big reception.

If you're looking to get really frisky in what should be a sleepy late afternoon game, Rams rookie receiver CJ Daniels to score a touchdown is +950. He's a big-framed receiver, which the Rams will need behind the smaller Mumpfield and Atwell. Worth a sprinkle!

Tre Tucker receiving yards OVER 25.5 (-115)

Speaking of unrealized air yards, Tucker is 13th among all receivers in unconnected air yards at 227. Tucker is tied for ninth in targets of at least 20 air yards but has only a 35.7% receptions rate, thanks in large part to six of those 14 targets landing inaccurate with quarterback Kirk Cousins. Cousins, for as good as he was at the helm of the Raiders' offense, lacks a deep-ball arm at this stage of his career.

With rookie Fernando Mendoza ready to start his first career game, I expect the Raiders' passing attack to become less incremental and a bit more vertical, which speaks to Tucker's game. Though the matchup against the Seattle Seahawks' defense is certainly an intimidating one for a green passer, Klint Kubiak is well suited to find space against this defense -- he saw it work for a whole season up close when he was the coordinator in Seattle last season. I'm confident he'll have a trick or two up his sleeve.

I wouldn't usually take a receiving over against this Seahawks defense that leads the league in yards per target allowed to opposing wideouts. But the number is too low for a primary receiver and can be reached on one big play. I'll be on alts as well for this bet, and we also will track 40-plus yards for a half unit at +194.

Geno Smith passing yards OVER 220.5 (-113)

The Buffalo Bills' defense has enjoyed two softer quarterback matchups after their bye. Against the Ravens, both Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley went down, forcing emergency third quarterback Joe Fagnano into the game. Against the Vikings, it was backup Carson Wentz.

Perhaps something seriously improved in the Bills' secondary post-bye -- and they are adding safety Amani Hooker, a nice deadline addition, at safety -- but before that bye, opposing quarterbacks were ripping through Buffalo's pass defense. Cousins had 313 yards in Week 6, Matthew Stafford had 383 in Week 5, and Drake Maye had 269 in Week 4.

The Bills are rightfully large favorites over the 2-7 New York Jets, who probably will run the ball early in an attempt to keep it close, then eventually get forced into a pass-heavy script. Smith has cleared this number in three of his past four games and is 11th in the league in yards per pass attempt. When the Jets have to throw, he puts up big numbers. With Garrett Wilson expected to return from the concussion protocol, the Jets' receiver trio is at full force, and Smith should produce accordingly.

Check out the latest Super Bowl odds and major NFL awards futures.

Daniel Jones passing yards UNDER 186.5 (-112)

The Indianapolis Colts receiver room is as bad as any I can think of in the past 10 years of non-COVID football. With Downs and Keenan Allen both traded at the deadline, the Colts are fielding Laquon Treadwell, Ashton Dulin and Deion Burks as starting wideouts. Indianapolis retained running back Jonathan Taylor at the trade deadline, so it's fair to expect the Colts to increase their reliance on the handoff game.

The Miami Dolphins' passing defense gives up the third-most yards per pass attempt in the league but gives up only 198.4 yards per game, right around league average. That's because nobody needs to throw it against them to win. Especially with defensive tackle Zach Sieler now hurt, the Colts should be able to run the ball with plenty of success. This Colts' passing attack is as below league average as it gets, and with Malik Willis out, the likelihood the Dolphins get a second-half lead and force a pass-happy approach is greatly diminished.

Walder's prop bets

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Defensive plays

Indianapolis Colts D/ST Anytime TD (+550)

This is straightforward: We're trying to capitalize on Dolphins quarterback Kyle McCord making his NFL debut. Is the Colts' defense good? It is not. But it almost doesn't matter. Indianapolis is a 3.5-point favorite, and the chances of a disastrous mistake from McCord is elevated given his status as a former sixth-round pick who has never taken a pro snap in a regular-season game. My model, which is making those quite negative assumptions about McCord, prices this at +450.

New England Patriots to NOT allow a sack on first drive (-391)

The Patriots are light underdogs this week against the Detroit Lions, who do boast the second-best pass rush win rate this season. But the Patriots are third best in pass block win rate, which, along with Drake Maye's average sack rate, is why my model isn't overly concerned about Maye falling to a first-drive sack. At least not at this price, anyway. I make the fair line -514.

Offensive plays

Chase Brown receptions OVER 4.5 (+102)

Almost every week, I have a bet based on one of my favorite splits in football: running back reception rates against man vs. zone coverage. Running backs record a reception on 8% dropbacks against man coverage but 15% against zone. And based on back-testing research, I don't believe this fact is fully baked into reception lines. The last couple of weeks I've used this information to bet the under on running backs facing man-heavy defenses -- we hit on Alvin Kamara's under last week -- but this time I'm flipping the script and opting for Brown's over against the Steelers. Pittsburgh is the heaviest zone coverage team in the NFL, running zone 79% of the time.

Malik Washington receiving yards OVER 30.5 (-116)

Washington has a huge split between his open score (82, T2) and his catch score (38, below average). Those are two player tracking-based metrics from ESPN Analytics, with the former measuring a receiver's ability to get open (regardless of target) on every route and the latter measuring their ability to make the catch relative to expectations. Open score is much more stable than catch score and correlates more strongly with production, so Washington fits the exact profile of receiver I want to bet on. Yes, he will have McCord throwing to him. But I also think this is a particularly good matchup; Colts nickel corner Justin Walley has been out, but even if he returns, he has had a rough season, giving up 1.8 yards per coverage snap, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That's much higher than average. This bet is based on my read of the number above and not an output from a model, the way most of my bets are.

Clay's top predicted anytime TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown this week? Whether you intend to make an anytime touchdown bet, are setting a DFS lineup or simply enjoy peering into a crystal ball, I have a prediction for you.

Every week, we generate fantasy football projections for every game on the slate, and that includes the probability that a player will take the ball into the end zone.

Here are my top predicted scorers for Week 10, ordered by their implied odds*, as well as the anytime touchdown moneyline offered by DraftKings at time of publication. These implied odds are what my projections consider the fair odds of that player to score on an anytime touchdown bet.

For the latest odds on these and all other player props, visit DraftKings.

*Implied odds convert the probability of an outcome projected by Mike Clay into a moneyline. Look for implied odds that are higher than the moneyline offered. For example if the implied odds are -150 and the moneyline is -110, then Clay's projection system indicates an advantage for the bettor. If the implied odds are +110 but the line offered is -110, the projection system sees a disadvantage to be avoided.