It's Week 10 of the college football season and some offenses are treating the end zone like it requires a reservation. That's good news for our under wagers, less convenient for anyone expecting a shootout.
Kentucky heads to Knoxville with upset potential, UCLA gets a chilly road test in Minnesota, and Oregon-Ohio State could deliver more tension than touchdowns.
We break down where we're backing underdogs, fading offenses and finding reasons to enjoy a punt this November.
Here are the bets Mark Zinno and I like for this week.
Odds by DraftKings
and subject to change.
Kentucky +6.5 at Tennessee
Kentucky has enough offense to make Tennessee attempt to do something it hasn't consistently done against SEC opponents: score touchdowns.
The Volunteers have just 13 scores across five conference games. More than half came against Furman, Georgia Tech and Kennesaw. Vols RB DeSean Bishop can get his yards without Tennessee putting this game away.
The Wildcats backfield -- CJ Baxter and Jason Patterson -- give Kentucky a way to attack Tennessee's less imposing run defense rather than repeatedly testing its coverage. If those carries force Tennessee to commit more defenders to the run, QB Kenny Minchey can look for receivers Kenny Darby and Willie Rodriguez.
Minchey has thrown just one interception all season. Ball protection helps against a Tennessee team that leans heavily on its defense. If Kentucky avoids giving the Volunteers short fields, Tennessee has to create its own offense. Bishop can carry the running game, but QB George MacIntyre hasn't supplied the passing production to turn that into a comfortable win.
I like Kentucky +6.5, with a smaller play on the +195 moneyline. Kentucky has already won three SEC road games; this is another upset within its reach.
Fresno State at Utah State UNDER 42.5
Utah State's offense is the reason to like the under. The Aggies can hit a big pass, but that hasn't translated into an offense that goes anywhere or finishes drives. They've allowed 23 sacks, so even when they get something going, one bad snap can leave them punting.
Fresno State also isn't walking into an easy matchup. Utah State's defense is the better part of this team. It can make running difficult, keeping QB Jayden Mandal from getting easy yards downfield. Fresno converts fewer than 37% of its third downs so asking it to keep putting together scoring possessions is a lot.
I expect stretches where somebody moves the ball, looks like they might score and then the possession goes nowhere. The Bulldogs are top 20 in the FBS for field goal attempts, while the Aggies are bottom 10 in field goals made (only 58%). Add in that both teams are also comfortable taking their time -- especially with a lead -- and this could be a snail pace a game.
Oregon at Ohio State UNDER 46.5
I trust these defenses more than either offense's ability to put up scores. Ohio State has allowed only four touchdowns at home. Oregon doesn't have the run game to make QB Dylan Raiola's job easier. The Buckeyes can limit those handoffs without giving him easy completions, which puts more of the scoring on his ability to beat them through the air.
Buckeyes QB Luke Fahey is making his second start against an Oregon defense allowing a 36% rushing success rate, which is top-25 in the country. With that, Ohio State can't assume RB Bo Jackson will handle everything while Fahey continues to settle in. WR Jeremiah Smith can always turn one catch into a touchdown -- and he'll certainly try after his stats have slipped for a Heisman campaign -- but he can get his numbers and this total can still be too high. Ohio State can control the game while the total stays under. -- Maldonado
Mark Zinno's plays
Virginia Tech at SMU First Half UNDER 27.5
I played the same bet two weeks ago when the Hokies went to Clemson and it cashed easily. I like this one just as much, as this features two teams with defenses that are in the top 30 in total defense.
The Hokies will face a much tougher quarterback in Kevin Jennings, but they are coming off a bye and have had two weeks to prepare for an SMU passing attack that is seventh in FBS. However, SMU's best offensive performance in conference games were against Florida State, Louisville and California. Those are three teams in the bottom five in the ACC in total defense and points per game allowed. The Hokies allow just 20.5 points per game in ACC play and are third in total defense.
James Franklin teams continue to struggle to score on the road in conference play, and Virginia Tech is averaging just 25.6 points in the ACC. The Mustangs are allowing just 331.5 yards per game. The loser of this game likely has no chance at the College Football Playoff, so this will be treated like a playoff game with a slow start.
Minnesota +5.5 vs. UCLA
If there was ever a spot to fade an undefeated team in the Big Ten, this is it. You've got UCLA cracking the top 5 in the AP Poll for the first time in a quarter-century and having to leave the cozy confines of warm southern California for the sub 50-degree temperatures of Minneapolis in the first week of November.
UCLA is also starting its backup QB Ty Dieffenbach, who has only completed 57.7% with two touchdowns and one interception in three games as a starter. He benefitted from facing three weak teams since taking over.
It's a good bounce back spot too for the Gophers after a tough OT loss to Indiana last week, giving them confidence they can play with anyone. They will need another top effort from their defense because the Minnesota offense (130th in FBS in total offense) leaves a lot to be desired.
Taking care of the ball will be at a premium because the Bruins are second in the nation in turnover differential at plus-15. My guess is that their turnover luck runs out here. Add in the early 11 a.m. local start time and the Gophers can start faster than expected. Sprinkle a little on the money line for the Gophers as well.
Utah -5.5 vs BYU
A lot of people are staying away from the "Holy War" because in the previous 97 meetings, both teams have never been ranked inside the top 10. Well, I'm not. The better team here is the Utes.
This is one of these games where oddsmakers are telling me what I need to know. The fact that this game has a spread near a touchdown indicates the sizable gap between the two teams. I'd be less confident if it were a field goal or less. The BYU offense is really missing LJ Martin. They've only reached more than 380 yards in total offense in one Big 12 game and it was against Iowa State, who has the second-worst defense in the conference.
The Utes have gained more than 400 yards in every game this season and are one of 10 teams in FBS to average at least 200 rushing yards and 200 passing yards per game. Utah's run game is the biggest advantage it has, which is why it is seventh in the FBS in time of possession.
He's less heralded, but Utes QB Devon Dampier is the better quarterback in this game, leading a passing offense that averages 258.5 passing yards per game. Utah outgained BYU last year by over 100 yards in a three-point loss in Provo. The Utes get revenge this time around.
Kentucky at Tennessee UNDER 51.5 (-136)
I'm betting a Tennessee under again. I've moved the line over 51 here after getting burned last time with South Carolina scoring a miraculous 10 points in the final 67 seconds in a 27-24 final.
I'm still backing a Volunteers defense that hasn't allowed more than 345 yards to an opponent in SEC play and is averaging just 17.6 points per game allowed. I'm still fading a Tennessee offense that hasn't scored more than 26 points with George MacIntyre at quarterback.
I agree with my colleague Pam Maldonado that Kentucky will need to run the ball more because the Vols' pass defense is too good, and the Tennessee offense has struggled to find the end zone. All of this continues to point to an under and it's hard to envision Tennessee winning a game that goes over.
Delaware team total OVER 29.5 at Kennesaw State
If I asked you who has the best offense in Conference USA prior to reading this, you would have never guessed Delaware, but QB Nick Minicucci and the Blue Hens are tops in CUSA in total offense and own the 13th best passing attack in all FBS at 286.3 yards per game.
They get to face a Kennesaw State defense that is second-to-last in conference ahead of only, you guessed it, Delaware. The Owls are also 133rd in time of possession meaning that the Blue Hens should have ample opportunities to score here against a KSU defense that is allowing 30.6 points per game at home this season against FBS opponents. The Blue Hens should be flying high here. (Okay, I'll show myself out!)