It's Week 8 of the college football season, and Mark Zinno and I are getting a little defensive. There are four UNDERS on this week's card, so yes, we will be celebrating punts rather than points. Please respect our lifestyle.
We're also taking West Virginia in different directions, but Colorado-Oklahoma State? Go nuts. We've got two OVERS, too. Balance is important.
With Zinno coming off a 5-0 sweep, here's what we've got for this week.
Odds by DraftKings
and subject to change.
West Virginia at TCU UNDER 56.5
West Virginia wants to run the ball nearly 70% of the time. TCU has the defense to make that difficult. The Horned Frogs are solid against the run and pass, allow touchdowns on fewer than half of red zone trips and get off the field on 70% of third downs, a top-15 rate in the FBS.
West Virginia's defense can give up points, but TCU doesn't have the same firepower as opponents like Oklahoma State or Arizona. The Frogs have just six breakaway runs and throwing downfield has come with some mistakes: nine touchdowns, but also four interceptions.
Every WVU game seems to turn into a shootout. TCU can slow this one down without lighting up the scoreboard.
This is a bit contrarian, as West Virginia and Colorado State are the only FBS teams to have each of their games go over the betting total. TCU's defense is key here.
Miami (OH) at Central Michigan UNDER 40.5
Neither offense looks built to turn this into a shootout. Miami has thrown for just 95 yards and 65 yards in its last two games, respectively, while Central Michigan has only three passing touchdowns all season.
CMU wants to run, but Miami held its last three opponents below three yards per carry. If that continues, I don't trust the Chippewas to throw their way out of trouble. Miami should find more room against CMU's run defense, but both teams play slow and get even slower with a lead.
I expect plenty of handoffs, stalled drives and time coming off the clock rather swiftly.
Colorado at Oklahoma State OVER 55.5
Oklahoma State can do most of the scoring for us here. Drew Mestemaker averages 9.6 yards per attempt and Colorado's defense allows big gains when opponents connect through the air. The Cowboys scored at least 32 points against Oregon, West Virginia, UCF and Houston.
Colorado's offense is the concern, but Oklahoma State's defense should give the Buffaloes opportunities in both the run and pass game. Neither team plays slow, and the Cowboys barely ease off when leading. That leaves time for Colorado to contribute late points, even if this gets away early. I see enough opportunities on both sides to clear this total.
No. 2 BYU at UCF OVER 43.5
The Cougars have the passing game to attack UCF's weaker coverage, with a QB in Bear Bachmeier who has taken just three sacks all season. He should have time to find throws. UCF's contribution is the bigger question, but the Knights scored 21 against TCU's strong defense and 28 against Oklahoma State. The capabilities are there. Last year, these teams combined for 62 points despite both struggling to run. Different season, different personnel, but a reminder that stopping the run doesn't guarantee a low score.
Worth noting: BYU is one of two FBS teams to cover the spread in every game this season, with UCLA being the other. -- Pamela Maldonado
Mark Zinno's betting card
West Virginia +9.5 at TCU
This a "hold your nose and look away" type of bet. But giving this Mountaineers offense this many points feels like a gift, even for the second-worst defense in all of FBS. Moreover, this spread feels like it came out of nowhere. WVU was a 10.5-point underdog to a ranked Virginia team back in Week 3 at a neutral site in Charlotte. The Mountaineers won that game by 11. Over the next four games, the Mountaineers were at worst a 3.5-point underdog to Arizona, which has a much better offense than TCU. Now, they are nearly double-digit underdogs to the second-worst offense in the Big 12?
Make it make sense!
This game boils down to opposing styles winning out. West Virginia has the better offense and an awful defense, while TCU has the best defense in the conference but is second to last in scoring offense. If the game turns into a shootout, give me the team that is better at scoring. That's the Mountaineers.
No. 11 Tennessee at South Carolina UNDER 50.5
Everyone is going to be jumping on the Gamecocks here in a letdown spot for the Volunteers, who are coming off an upset win over Alabama. We've seen this trend in the SEC with teams coming off a huge win and following it with a letdown in the next game. The difference here is that those teams all played another top team in the league. That's not the case here with South Carolina. Tennessee has the best defense in the SEC, allowing just 14.7 points per game.
That's enough for me to believe the Vols can win this game.
South Carolina has scored at least 34 points in three of its four SEC games, but it was against Mississippi State, Kentucky and Florida. All three of those are bottom-five defenses in the conference. The Gamecocks managed only 18 points against Alabama in Tuscaloosa. This will be a much tougher environment for Tennessee than its other conference road game against Arkansas, and QB George MacIntyre is making just his third start, so I don't expect much offense from the Vols here, either. Even if the Gamecocks pull off the upset, it's not likely a shootout.
No. 10 Utah -6.5 vs. No. 14 Houston
The Utes welcome the Cougars to Salt Lake City, where Utah hasn't lost since Sept. 20 of last year. Utah still feels a little undervalued to me, even being ranked 10th in the nation. They have the superior QB in the game in Devon Dampier, who has completed 68.6% of his passes this season. That number jumps to 73.1% at home. Dampier also averages 11 carries per game at home compared to just 7.5 on the road. His legs will be a big factor against Houston this week.
Houston lost its only road game against a ranked opponent this season, with their other road wins being against Kansas State and Georgia Southern. This will be a significant step up in class for them, as was the game against Texas Tech, but the Utes' defense is far superior to that of Tech. Give me the Utes to grind Houston down in this one.
Virginia Tech at Clemson first half UNDER 24.5
This game has all the makings of a slugfest. James Franklin's teams at Penn State always seemed to struggle on the road against equal competition, and his time with the Hokies is trending in the same direction. Tech has averaged just 20.5 points in its two road conference games, and the one thing that Clemson can hang its hat on is a defense that has allowed just 13 touchdowns all season, nine of which came in games against LSU and Miami. Virginia Tech has also allowed the second-most sacks in the ACC at 19, as only Virginia has allowed more.
What Clemson can't do is count on its offense much these days. Freshman QB Tait Reynolds has just one passing touchdown this season, and the Tigers' pass offense is 111th in FBS. Reynolds has also been sacked 16 times in the five games against FBS opponents, which is a bad sign heading into a matchup against a Hokies team that leads the ACC in sacks. Clemson is averaging just 21.6 points per game in conference play, and the Hokies defense has allowed more than 26 points just once this season.
Toledo -3 vs. Western Michigan
A Toledo win over the defending conference champion Broncos would greatly improve their chances of reaching the MAC championship game. The Rockets lead the MAC in total offense (20th in FBS) and average 36.3 points per game. Toledo is also second in the Mid-American in total defense and will face a Broncos offense that is 121st in FBS with just 322.3 yards per game.
The Broncos' pass offense is virtually nonexistent, so they will have to do it on the ground against a Rockets team that has allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns in conference play this season. Toledo will also have revenge on its mind after losing by one last year in Kalamazoo on a last-minute touchdown and 2-point conversion.