The first College Football Playoff rankings are out as we enter Week 10, and we finally know what the committee thinks. Before we start buying futures, Week 10 itself could change plenty, with Kentucky at Tennessee, Georgia at Ole Miss and Miami at Notre Dame.
I looked at where the rankings and odds disagree, what the remaining schedules tell us and whether the better bet is the future or actually this weekend.
Odds by DraftKings
and subject to change.
Notre Dame: The disconnect makes sense
To win the national championship: +550
To make the playoff: Yes -330, No +260
Notre Dame initially looked like the disconnect: No. 11 in the rankings but -330 to make the playoff and +550 to win the title. Then you look at what's ahead: The Fighting Irish get Miami, Boston College and SMU all at home before visiting Syracuse to end the regular season.
Their underlying performance is stronger than the ranking suggests, too. I lean Notre Dame to win Saturday against the Hurricanes, although it's hardly a comfortable call. Beat the committee's No. 1 team and suddenly the résumé looks different. The gap is worth noticing, but I'm not betting against Notre Dame simply because it exists.
No. 6 Kentucky: Back the upset, not the whole season
To win the national championship: +6400
To win the SEC: +1325
To reach the SEC championship game: +225
To make the playoff: Yes +150, No -180
Kentucky is No. 6 in the first College Football Playoff rankings, tied with Georgia at 5-1 atop the SEC standings. That's beyond just a feel-good story; being positioned to accomplish something and being good enough to finish are two different conversations.
The Wildcats have outscored SEC opponents by only nine points, with overtime wins against South Carolina and LSU. While their run game gives them something dependable, it's the passing offense and defense that make it difficult to trust for an entire month.
The final stretch includes trips to Tennessee this week then Missouri in Week 11, with Florida and Louisville at home to wrap up the regular season. Florida's vulnerable run defense is a favorable matchup, Missouri's defense could force Kentucky away from its strength, and Louisville's offense makes that finale dangerous. Louisville won't affect the SEC standings, but it could hurt Kentucky's playoff résumé.
So what do we buy? Playoff qualification at +150 is interesting, given the committee's endorsement. Reaching the SEC championship at +225 is more appealing than winning it at +1325. The national title at +6400? I'm not confusing a big payout with a realistic championship profile.
My preferred bet is Kentucky +195 on the moneyline at Tennessee for Week 10. Tennessee's struggling passing attack might not fully exploit Kentucky's coverage problems, giving the Wildcats a chance to compete through their running game. Tennessee can run, too, so this isn't a comfortable upset call.
But for an underdog moneyline in a single game, I like that matchup-specific bet more than trusting Kentucky through November. We can back the Wildcats without buying their whole season.
Week 10 should be (yet another) thriller.