Well, so much for wrapping up the Heisman in October.
Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith looked like he was running away with it for a while. Now the Buckeyes have another loss, Miami has two candidates near the top of the board, and November has plenty of opportunities for somebody else to take over.
The race is open again, but that doesn't mean every price is worth buying. Let's look at the top five contenders and what could change everything this week.
Darian Mensah, QB, Miami (+156)
Great numbers. Now comes the test.
Miami is undefeated, he has thrown 25 touchdowns against one interception, and he leads the nation in completion percentage and passing scores. Mensah's case is an easy Heisman case to explain.
My hesitation is who those numbers came against. Mensah has been excellent, but Miami hasn't faced a ranked opponent. That doesn't erase Mensah's production, but I'm not paying the favorite's price before his toughest test. This week's matchup at Notre Dame is when we find out how much of this carries over.
If Mensah goes into South Bend and looks like the best player on the field, the schedule criticism loses a lot of its power. Voters would have the numbers, the undefeated record and the signature performance.
The +156 price is paying before he answers that question, and his own receiver is sitting close behind him in the market.
Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State (+290)
Still in it, no longer running away with it.
I'm not pinning this on the quarterback change, as Smith caught 10 passes against USC and scored Ohio State's only touchdown. He wasn't missing from the offense. However, 83 yards in a loss doesn't grab voters the way those 200-yard games did earlier in the season, especially while other candidates keep building their cases.
Smith has now gone three games without reaching 100 receiving yards, and Ohio State now has two losses. The quarterback situation is something to watch, not an automatic explanation. Smith still has Oregon and Michigan to remind everyone why he was the favorite, and he needs another performance that makes the whole conversation about him once again.
Malachi Toney, WR, Miami (+305)
He has a case. So does the guy throwing to him.
Toney has been a huge part of why Miami is winning. He followed 194 receiving yards against Pittsburgh with two touchdowns at North Carolina, and his season totals are right alongside Smith's.
The betting problem is that almost every big Toney receiving performance also helps Mensah. If Toney catches three touchdowns at Notre Dame, his quarterback probably has at least three touchdown passes.
So what makes voters decide the receiver deserves the trophy more? How those plays happen. Is Toney catching a short pass, making three people miss and doing something ridiculous? Or is Mensah beating the defense with difficult throws? The box score can reward both, while the highlights and conversation separate the two.
I need a stronger reason to believe Toney gets the credit over Mensah. His Heisman price is short for a player who still has to separate himself from his own teammate.
CJ Carr, QB, Notre Dame (+1150)
Beating Miami wouldn't automatically make this his race.
Carr has protected the ball, Notre Dame is 7-1, and he gets the favorite on his own field this week. If Notre Dame wins, Carr has to be the reason it happens.
If the Irish run the ball, play great defense and win while he throws for 210 yards and two touchdowns, that's just a good Saturday, not a Heisman breakthrough.
Against BYU, he threw 49 passes without a touchdown. That's something a signature Miami performance could help overcome, not something we should ignore. Carr has an opportunity, but the path requires a significant change in how he's producing and how people are discussing him.
The +1150 price could be tempting, but a longer number isn't automatic value when the individual case still needs that much work.
Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss (+1150)
I still see the path. I'm not ignoring the mistakes.
Chambliss was my preseason pick, and I'm not going to pretend that means every version of his price is a buy. He's the player whose odds have seen the most volatility, similar to the Ole Miss schedule. He faced five opponents ranked at kickoff while Mensah hasn't faced that kind of slate. Chambliss also delivered against LSU, and his rushing ability gives him another way to carry the offense when the passing game gets difficult.
But facing better teams isn't enough by itself. The three interceptions at Texas hurt his case. He needed the Auburn rebound, but beating Auburn doesn't erase what happened the previous week.
Now he gets Georgia this weekend followed by a trip to Oklahoma. Those are opportunities to change how voters see him. A huge performance against Georgia would mean considerably more than another comfortable afternoon against a weaker opponent.
Of the longer prices, Chambliss is the one I find most interesting because the opportunities are real and immediate. He needs to make his case stronger, not simply remind us that the schedule is harder.
What to expect in Week 10: This is where the conversation could change.
Miami at Notre Dame puts Mensah, Toney and Carr in the same game, Chambliss gets Georgia while Smith gets Oregon with the quarterback situation still hanging over his campaign. That's a lot more useful than spending another week arguing about what happened in September.
A great Mensah performance in a Miami win could give the favorite the signature moment he is missing. A spectacular Toney performance could shift the credit toward the receiver. Carr can jump into the middle of it, but only if he does more than benefit from a Notre Dame victory.
Chambliss needs a game against Georgia that makes people reconsider him. Smith needs to show that Julian Sayin's absence doesn't have to mean the end of his explosive production.
I'm not forcing a new ticket before all that happens, as we already hold Smith and Chambliss. For everyone starting fresh, waiting could mean a shorter price on the player who delivers, but it could also keep you from buying a candidate whose biggest unanswered question turns into a real problem.
This week should help us distinguish between the two.