NFL Week 7 betting guide: the value bets to make on lines, props and anytime TDs

Value is value, no matter where -- or how -- you find it. And that's what we'll aim to do each week in this space: find betting value.

Ben Solak, Seth Walder and Matt Bowen bring different perspectives into how they approach sports betting. Solak leans on his expertise in player evaluation and the X's and O's to find edges, while Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets, focusing mainly on defense. Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts positive matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league. Also included are fantasy projection creator Mike Clay's top predicted anytime TD scorers for Week 7.

From spreads and money lines to totals and defensive player props, a good price might be found anywhere. Results will be tracked throughout the season, with flat one-unit wagers for each listed bet. Let's get into it.

Note: Odds by DraftKings and subject to change.

Jump to:
Bowen's favorite bets
Solak's plays | Walder's props
Clay's TD projections

Bowen's favorite bets

Heading into Week 7 of the NFL Sunday slate, I'm going to try some different things in this space. Yes, I'll still have some game picks in here that we need to hit on, but I'll also move around the league a little more. Spreads, totals, props, etc. -- with the same analysis based on the numbers and the game tape. Plus, I'll have more bets to play.

We'll start in Detroit, where I see two offenses with explosive-play ability -- playing indoors and on a really fast track -- pushing past the total.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
4:25 p.m. ET on Fox, Ford Field, Detroit

Total points OVER 53.5 (-110)

Let's see if the Lions made some defensive adjustments over the bye week (such as playing less man coverage). This unit has given up 29.6 points per game, and the Packers will have matchup advantages with Christian Watson and Matthew Golden. Plus, Josh Jacobs returns to the Green Bay backfield. While I do think the Packers defense has played really good football over the past three weeks (11.5 PPG), limiting Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs is a different test. The Lions are scoring 32.8 PPG for a reason. This has the makeup of a shootout in the controlled environment of Ford Field.

More bets to consider

Two-team, 6-point teaser: Vikings -0.5 vs. Colts, Broncos-Cardinals UNDER 49.5 (-143)

Getting the Vikings down to basically a moneyline play is a win. Brian Flores' defense is the story here, too. The Vikings lead the NFL in blitz rate (67.6%), and they are allowing a league-low 12.8 points per game. That's trouble for a Colts offense lacking a vertical element in the pass game. And with Daniel Jones' reduced mobility due to his Achilles injury in 2025, Flores can heat up the pocket.

Pushing the Denver-Arizona number up to 49.5 feels like a smart play here to get the Vikings number we want, as a straight moneyline bet on Minnesota would cost -278. Both teams rank in the bottom 10 in offensive scoring. The Cards aren't a vertical offense with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback, and Bo Nix is playing subpar football. This feels like a low-scoring game to start with, and we're pushing the number up by 6

Atlanta Falcons +3 vs. San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers travel cross country for this one -- after playing the Monday night game -- and Mike Evans could be down due to Achilles tendinitis. Atlanta also features a defense that is top five against the run, has produced four sacks in back-to-back games and has taken the ball away in four straight. Let's take the Falcons as a home underdog to cover.

Bijan Robinson rushing + receiving yards OVER 112.5 (-112)

Robinson has posted at least 118 total yards in four of six games played this season, and the 49ers are allowing an average of 46 receiving yards to opposing running backs (second most). Trust the volume and the big-play ability with Robinson as an elite dual-threat back.

Kaelon Black rushing yards OVER 28.5 (-115)

The 49ers want to reduce to the total volume for Christian McCaffrey, which would create more opportunities for Black in Kyle Shanahan's run game. Black, who rushed for 34 yards on eight carries in the Monday night win over the Washington Commanders, should hit the over versus the Falcons.

Tyler Higbee anytime TD (+280)

With Davante Adams out, there are open red zone opportunities in L.A., and the Rams can go heavy on tight end personnel in scoring position. Higbee has only one touchdown catch on the season, but he has averaged 37 routes run over his past four games. Keep an eye on boot concepts with Matthew Stafford in the low red zone.

J.J. McCarthy rushing yards OVER 23.5 (-115)

McCarthy rushed for 26 yards on two carries in the fourth quarter versus the New Orleans Saints last week and averages 17.4 yards per game as a pro. McCarthy has the traits to run the ball on designed carries, and he will be forced to eject from the pocket (as a runner) versus the Texans' pass rush.

Solak's plays

New York Jets -4.5 (-115) vs Miami Dolphins

I've been looking for a spot to bet the Jets as they return to offensive health, and it seems like that day is here. The Dolphins are coming off their bye and are potentially frisky for a divisional win as a so-far winless team, but the Jets saw both receiver Adonai Mitchell (finger) and guard Dylan Parham (knee) return to practice in a limited capacity this week, just after first-round receiver Omar Cooper Jr. splashed into the starting lineup off IR with a six-catch, 103-yard outing. There's even a chance Breece Hall will be back for this game!

The Dolphins have a bottom-10 passing offense by pretty much every metric we've got, but they have been able to run fairly well (fourth in explosive rush rate, 10th in EPA per designed rush). But the Jets' defense is strong on the ground, ranking seventh in EPA per designed rush allowed and 11th in explosive rush rate. If the Dolphins can't find chunk plays on the ground, they can't move the football -- and that's where the Jets' bread is best buttered.

Offensively, I've enjoyed the Geno Smith's renaissance and expect him to have his best cadre of available receivers -- Cooper, Mitchell, star Garrett Wilson, and tight ends Mason Taylor and Kenyon Sadiq -- of the season. The Jets are a rising team, and I want to be ahead of them on the market, especially against the least talented roster in football.

Kyler Murray passing yards OVER 204.5 (-113)

The Colts' passing defense is a disaster. Indianapolis is allowing 7.6 yards per passing attempt -- the eighth-worst mark -- despite surrendering a completion percentage of 61.4%, the eighth-best mark. That's because they don't tackle well at all in space (6.5 yards after the catch per reception, the highest figure in the league) and can't pressure the quarterback. Their 24.4% pressure rate on the season is the worst figure in the league by over 5 percentage points. Even when they do get pressure, they're allowing an astonishing 9.7 yards per pass attempt -- more than second place by more than a yard.

All of this to say I love the potential for Murray to accumulate passing production in this one. Off of Minnesota's bye week, Murray will get his first game with a healthy set of pass catchers. Justin Jefferson got hurt in Week 3, and then T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison missed Week 5. Star left tackle Christian Darrisaw is also back, and while the return of RB Jordan Mason might impact the Vikings' overall pass rate some, the potential for big plays is just too high here.

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Why Stephen A. expects Cowboys to beat 'anemic' Eagles

Tanner McKee completions OVER 20.5 (-115)

We were on McKee over 18.5 completions against the Panthers last week, and in another great spot against an even weaker pass defense in Dallas, we'll take the completions again. McKee didn't even have a high completion percentage and still ended with 26 completions. The Eagles have a high pass rate when McKee is in, and he doesn't really scramble; the ball comes out.

Dallas allows a higher completion rate (68.5%) than all but two defenses in the league, which should help McKee get to a higher number more easily. Dallas' fast-paced offense should also give the Eagles a few more total snaps, and it's still reasonable to expect the Eagles to be in a trailing game script as 4.5-point underdogs. The Eagles do have a little more time to get running back Saquon Barkley back healthy for this game, as they don't play until Monday night against the Cowboys, but even if Barkley returns and they try to hand the football off more, a high-percentage night against a Cowboys defense with major coverage weaknesses in the short area of the field seems reachable for McKee.

Brock Purdy passing yards UNDER 241.5 (-112)

It's a brutal pregame draw for Purdy, who looks like he'll be facing a great Falcons pass rush this week without WRs Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel Sr. -- on top of the long-term absences of Demarcus Robinson, Ricky Pearsall and De'Zhaun Stribling. The likely starting receiver trio for San Francisco will be Christian Kirk (in his first game off of injured reserve), Jordan Watkins and Jacob Cowing/Brandin Cooks.

Atlanta gets CB A.J. Terrell Jr. back for this game and figures to play with aggressive man coverage to force Purdy to trust this inexperienced group to make tight-window catches down the field. It should be a scramble game for Purdy as well, given the Falcons' spicy 42.7% pressure rate. (Purdy's rushing yardage prop is set at 19.5, which I also think is a good angle for an over.)

I just don't see enough chunk gains through the air to get Purdy to 240 yards in this game, especially if the Falcons are able to run the football and accelerate the game clock.

Tank Dell receptions OVER 1.5 (+164)

Just how big of a role will Dell have in his first football action in almost two years? A traumatic knee injury suffered in Week 16 of 2024 robbed Dell of the entire 2025 season. This game against the Giants will be his first active one of the 2026 season, and he joins a crowded receiver room. Nico Collins is well-established. Recent trade acquisition Marvin Harrison Jr. is jockeying for more playing time, as is second-year speedster Jaylin Noel, who just had his first 100-yard game last week. Xavier Hutchinson is always good for snaps, as is offseason trade acquisition Kayshon Boutte.

My instinct tells me Dell gets eight snaps and one reception. But the odds of two-plus receptions at +164 is far too intriguing a price to pass up. Given the level of excitement in Houston surrounding Dell's return, my expectation is that he'll have at least one designed touch in the early game plan as a celebration of his recovery. If we get to a fourth-quarter blowout (the Texans are 10.5-point favorites over the Giants), then the potential for more intentional touches increases. And there's always the standard down-to-down usage -- remember, Dell has more NFL experience with Stroud than Boutte or Harrison (as a pro); Stroud has always liked throwing to him. It's too easy to get to two receptions here.

Keep an eye out for first quarter/first drive props on this one. They're not yet live, but I'll look to take Dell for an early reception, given the above logic.

Rico Dowdle rushing yards OVER 28.5 (-115)

Dowdle had only seven carries in his return to action against the Buccaneers last week, while Jaylen Warren had 14. But in the first two weeks of the season, Dowdle had 15 total carries to Warren's 21, and I'd expect the split to continue trending closer to 50/50 throughout the season. It was also a weird game for the Steelers last week, with plenty of three-and-outs, which limited Dowdle's opportunities to spell Warren later in drives.

The Saints are giving up 4.8 yards per carry to running backs this season, third worst in the league. They've faced some elite rushing attacks in Detroit and Atlanta, but guess what? The Steelers quietly qualify. They don't run the ball at the same overall volume, but their 4.9 yards per carry from running backs is fourth in the league and is a testament to their blocking. NFL Next Gen Stats has them with 31.2% of their rushing yards before contact, well above the league average (24.2%).

Dowdle can easily get to this number on six or seven carries given the explosive opportunities. I also will be tracking Dowdle to score a touchdown for 0.5 units at +245 because of his potential to spell Warren on long drives and vulture a score. The Saints have surrendered 11 touchdowns to running back carries this season, most among all defenses.

Check out the latest Super Bowl odds and major NFL awards futures.

Walder's prop bets

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Why Tristan H. Cockcroft likes the Jets defense in Week 7

Note: More defensive props will be added as odds become available

Defensive plays

Chiefs D/ST anytime touchdown (+600)

Here are three important facts: 1) The Chiefs' defense ranks second in EPA allowed per dropback; 2) Seattle Seahawks QB Sam Darnold has the highest interception rate (4.2%) in the league among qualifying quarterbacks; 3) Darnold has taken sacks at an 8.4% rate (sixth highest).

That's a pretty favorable combination of circumstances for this bet. We're getting to bet on a Darnold mistake at a time when he has been struggling. If this were uncharacteristic of Darnold, perhaps we might think it's a blip. But even going back to just 2024 (when he was with the Vikings), Darnold has maintained a high 2.5% interception rate. He's interception-prone. And we can be the beneficiaries if the Chiefs run one back.

Bengals to NOT allow a sack on first drive (-343), 49ers to NOT allow a sack on first drive (-542)

I built a quick model for these first-drive sack bets a few weeks ago and have found a few values on the under, including a couple this week. The model in particular likes Cincinnati going against the Baltimore Ravens. Though Baltimore's pass rush should have the advantage over the Bengals' protection, Joe Burrow has made pretty fantastic strides in sack avoidance. Early in his career, Burrow's sack-taking was a liability, but this year his sack rate is just 4.4%, solidly better than the league's 6.1% average. I'm betting the 49ers here, too (in a separate bet), for similar reasons; no player in the league has taken sacks at a lower rate than Brock Purdy at just 2.6%.

Offensive plays

Kirk Cousins to throw an INT (+116)

For all the Los Angeles Rams' woes this season (and even with the Las Vegas Raiders exceeding expectations), they are still road favorites in Week 7. And that makes Cousins an underdog quarterback with a plus-money interceptions over. On its own, that isn't a must-bet, but it's a great start. If Cousins were a super turnover-avoidant quarterback, we might think twice. But his 2.3% interception rate this year is higher than average and roughly in line with his average over the past five seasons. If Los Angeles CB Trent McDuffie is out again, that will sting, but the Rams have more than enough talent to turn Cousins over. I would bet this down to +106.

J.K. Dobbins receptions OVER 1.5 (+150)

I pondered betting Dobbins over 1.5 receptions last week against a zone-heavy Seahawks defense, but I held off. Dobbins recorded three receptions in that game, and I'm not going to make the same mistake twice. This time, Dobbins and the Denver Broncos face the Arizona Cardinals, who similarly are a zone coverage team (69% zone, seventh most), and that's important because running backs catch passes against zone at almost double the rate that they do against man. Dobbins is certainly not the receiving back in Denver, but if he can manage just two catches we'll be rewarded with a solid plus-money win.

Clay's top predicted anytime TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown this week? Whether you intend to make an anytime touchdown bet, are setting a DFS lineup or simply enjoy peering into a crystal ball, I have a prediction for you.

Every week, we generate fantasy football projections for every game on the slate, and that includes the probability that a player will take the ball into the end zone.

Here are my top predicted scorers for Week 7, ordered by their implied odds*, as well as the anytime touchdown moneyline offered by DraftKings at time of publication. These implied odds are what my projections consider the fair odds of that player to score on an anytime touchdown bet.

For the latest odds on these and all other player props, visit DraftKings.

*Implied odds convert the probability of an outcome projected by Mike Clay into a moneyline. Look for implied odds that are higher than the moneyline offered. For example if the implied odds are -150 and the moneyline is -110, then Clay's projection system indicates an advantage for the bettor. If the implied odds are +110 but the line offered is -110, the projection system sees a disadvantage to be avoided.