Everything that happens in sports has additional context when viewed from a sports betting perspective. From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the sports news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.
Our NFL betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to provide fans a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation throughout each week of the season.
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Sept. 13: Circa Survivor kicks off with $25 million grand prize, Jaguars lead Week 1 picks
By Doug Greenberg
The Circa Sports pro football contests are locked in for the 2026 season with a total of $38.7 million on the line.
Circa Survivor will begin the season with a record 25,017 entries, making a winner-take-all $25,017,000 prize pool. The contest exceeded its guarantee of $20 million with four days remaining before registration closed.
Grandissimo, Circa's $100,000-per-entry survivor contest, also easily met its $4 million guarantee and ended up with a record 77 entries vying for a $7.7 million prize pool. The casino's traditional $100,000-per-entry handicapping contest, Circa Million, did not meet its $6 million guarantee and ended up with 5,790 entries, creating an overlay of $210,000.
Circa Survivor is the largest legal pro football contest in the country. Contestants pick one NFL team to win outright each week, with the caveat that they cannot use that team again the rest of the season. The entries must survive all 18 weeks of the regular season, plus two "mini weeks" for the Thanksgiving and Christmas slates.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are the most popular pick in the contest for Week 1, with 8,121 entries (32.5% of the pool) selecting them to defeat the Cleveland Browns. The Los Angeles Chargers come in next at 7,585 entries (30.3%) and the Pittsburgh Steelers round out the top three at 4,013 entries (16.1%).
Some entries opted to pick from the first two games of the season, with 174 (0.7%) getting through with the Seattle Seahawks and 10 (~0.0%) surviving with the San Francisco 49ers. On the flip side, 49 entries (0.2%) backed the Los Angeles Rams and 25 (0.1%) were on the New England Patriots, leading to their immediate elimination.
There were also 18 (0.1%) immediate eliminations via the dreaded No Pick designation.
Sept. 11: Rams suffer worst opening loss by preseason Super Bowl favorite in 50 years
by David Purdum
Preseason Super Bowl favorites have lost before, just not as badly as the Los Angeles Rams did Thursday in Melbourne, Australia.
The Rams lost 27-7 to the San Francisco 49ers, becoming the first preseason Super Bowl favorite to lose its opener by 20 or more in the past 50 seasons, according to SportsOddHistory.com. The 1993 Dallas Cowboys lost by 19, and the 2017 New England Patriots and 1987 New York Giants each lost by 15 in their season openers. Both the Cowboys and Patriots would play in the Super Bowl in those seasons, with the Cowboys winning and the Patriots losing, but the Giants failed to make the playoffs.
Los Angeles closed as a 3.5-point favorite over the 49ers and attracted the bulk of the bets and money from bettors. BetMGM reported that 60% of the money bet on the point spread was on the Rams.
The Rams have attracted more than twice as many bets to win the Super Bowl as any other team at DraftKings Sportsbook. They remain the favorites to win the Super Bowl, NFC and NFC West, but their odds dipped from 5-1 to 6-1 after Thursday's loss, and their odds to win the NFC West shifted from -105 to +164.
The 49ers, in turn, improved from +300 to +180 to win the division. The defending-champion Seattle Seahawks moved from +215 to +184 in the tightly contested NFC West. San Francisco improved from 19-1 to 14-1 to win the Super Bowl at DraftKings.