NFL Week 6 betting guide: Analysis, best bets and TD predictions

Value is value, no matter where -- or how -- you find it. And that's what we'll aim to do each week in this space: find betting value.

Ben Solak, Seth Walder and Matt Bowen bring different perspectives into how they approach sports betting. Solak leans on his expertise in player evaluation and the X's and O's to find edges, while Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets, focusing mainly on defense. Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts positive matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league. Also included are fantasy projection creator Mike Clay's top predicted anytime TD scorers for Week 6.

From spreads and moneylines to totals and defensive player props, a good price might be found anywhere. Results will be tracked throughout the season, with flat one-unit wagers for each listed bet. With that, let's dive into our best bets, the top game to bet, favorite defensive props to play and the top predicted TD scorers.

Note: Odds by DraftKings and subject to change.

Jump to:
Bowen's Game of the Week
Solak's plays | Walder's props
Clay's TD projections

Bowen's Game of the Week

Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5, 42.5)
9:30 a.m. ET on NFL Network, Wembley Stadium, London

It's a tough week to pick games. However, we are going to make some plays here, starting with my picks for the Texans and Jaguars in London. Here's how I see Sunday's matchup playing out ...

When the Texans have the ball: Quarterback C.J. Stroud has played really good football over the past two games, coinciding with Nico Collins' return from a hamstring injury. Collins is the difference-maker on in-breakers, isolation throws and red zone targets. During that two-game stretch, versus Dallas and Tennessee, Stroud completed 72.3% of his throws and had three touchdown passes. The Texans also traded for Marvin Harrison Jr. this past week, so let's see how many snaps he gets Sunday and how he is deployed in the route tree versus a Jaguars defense that has given up 266.2 passing yards per game (third most).

Houston's run game remains an issue. The Texans have averaged only 79 rushing yards per game (second fewest), and with David Montgomery down with a groin injury, Woody Marks will get the start. Marks gives the Texans more upside as a receiver, but it will be tough to create daylight against a Jaguars defense allowing a league-low 2.9 yards per carry. This feels like a pass-heavy script for Houston on Sunday.

When the Jaguars have the ball: Coach Liam Coen should have a game plan focused on attacking the Houston zone coverages. The Texans play the second-most zone in the league (77% of coverage snaps), mixing both single-high and split-field schemes. The Texans will use play-action and leveled concepts to carve out windows for Trevor Lawrence, who has thrown 10 touchdown passes on the season, compared to only three interceptions. I also expect Lawrence will have to use his legs more on second-reaction scrambles versus Texans edge rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter.

The Jags are in the same spot as the Texans when it comes to creating production on the ground. Bhayshul Tuten is averaging just under 70 yards a game, but this Texans front seven is allowing only 3.3 YPC, which is tied for the third fewest. Yes, Coen and the Jaguars will work to create run-pass balance, but this game comes down to Lawrence's ability to make plays on third downs.

I'm on the under in the London games. And with two divisional opponents who have the defensive personnel to win critical situations, I feel it will be tough for both offenses. For the game pick? It's the Jaguars on the moneyline (-142) and to cover the 2.5 points.

Other looks from around the league

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Stephen A. isn't buying that Aaron Rodgers' play has raised expectations for Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers total points UNDER 39.5 (-105)

Rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels played good football in Week 5 versus a subpar Dallas defense, but Pittsburgh will have more answers to counter the defined pass game we are seeing from the Buccaneers. Plus, Tampa Bay owns a top-five blitz rate (40.4%), and its run defense is allowing only 3.3 YPC (second fewest). With Aaron Rodgers' limited mobility, plus the wide receiver injuries in Pittsburgh, this game could be a grind.

Bijan Robinson longest rush OVER 18.5 yards (-118)

Robinson's explosive run rate (rushes of 10-plus yards) is 12.7%, which is lower than expected. However, Robinson has six rushes of 20 or more yards this season. I'll take Robinson to rip off a big play once he gets to the edges versus the Chicago defense.

Cam Skattebo rushing yards OVER 58.5 (-109)

Take the anticipated rushing volume and the matchup here. Skattebo is averaging 16.2 carries per game, and he has rushed for 59 or more yards in three of five games played. That total feels low too against a Saints defense allowing 148.8 rushing yards per game (third most).

Solak's plays

C.J. Stroud passing yards OVER 257.5 (-111)

The Jacksonville Jaguars have a generally strong defense, but it has some vulnerabilities. They're second in points per drive allowed and third in EPA per play allowed -- but dead last in explosive pass rate allowed, with 17.2% of the pass attempts against them going for at least a 16-yard gain. Specifically, throws to the intermediate area of the field have been easily accessible. The Jaguars allow a completion percentage of 64% on intermediate throws (seventh highest) and a whopping 76% completion rate on all in-breaking routes (fourth highest).

Guess what the entire Texans passing attack is built around? Stroud has thrown an in-breaker on 41.1% of his pass attempts this season (fifth-highest rate) and has thrown intermediate on 26% of his dropbacks (seventh most). You see where my head is at with this one.

I think there are two ways to get into this angle here: Stroud passing yards and Nico Collins receiving yards. Collins has five straight games of 100-plus receiving yards against the Jaguars and is looking to tie the NFL record for consecutive games of 100-plus yards against the same opponent. I expect a heavy diet of Collins, given his strength at these specific vulnerabilities.

I will lean to Stroud for the potential of big explosives to Kayshon Boutte, Jaylin Noel or the newly acquired Marvin Harrison Jr. I'll be on Collins receiving overs and Stroud passing overs when building out my bet card this week.

Matthew Stafford passing yards UNDER 283.5 (-113)

The Los Angeles Rams are 12.5-point favorites against the Arizona Cardinals this week. They ran the ball with impunity against Arizona last season. Running backs had 253 yards on 33 carries in the Rams' Week 14 win and 119 on 25 carries in a Week 18 win. That kept Stafford from totaling big days through the air. In fact, Stafford has gone below this number in seven straight games against the Cardinals, last clearing it in 2021.

Though the Rams had a tougher day running the football than expected last week against the Buffalo Bills, their running game remains one of the league's best by success rate. The Bills have allowed only 3.7 yards per carry to running backs this season, the seventh-lowest figure through five weeks; the Cardinals, at 4.2 allowed, are more around league average. With OL Alaric Jackson suspended, the Rams seem less likely to pass it and risk big hits on Stafford in what should be a quiet divisional win.

The Rams have generally been in competitive contests all year. In three of their past four games, all of which saw Stafford clear 300 total passing yards, the Rams have needed to cover second-half deficits. That's much less likely here, and I'll take the under on Stafford accordingly.

Aaron Rodgers 2+ passing touchdowns (+137)

I love taking Rodgers passing touchdown props because of how aggressively his teams tend to throw the ball in the red zone. The Pittsburgh Steelers lead the league in called red zone pass rate at 76%. Inside the 10-yard line, that leaps to 81%. Rodgers has thrown three touchdown passes in each of the past three contests, though those have largely been explosive passes with big YAC rather than short-area tosses.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' passing defense has surrendered only seven passing touchdowns, but the Bucs have a particularly bad matchup on the Steelers in the passing game, given how poorly their linebackers play in coverage. Receiving back Jaylen Warren, who is on a career-best pace for overall yardage, should win in space against Alex Anzalone and Josiah Trotter. Similarly, with safety Antoine Winfield Jr. expected to miss another game, the Bucs' safety position can be attacked by tight ends Darnell Washington and Pat Freiermuth, who are Rodgers' preferred red zone targets anyway.

Rodgers is only two behind Peyton Manning on the list for career passing touchdowns, and you can bet he knows it, too. I think we see a pass-happy approach in the red zone from Rodgers.

Tanner McKee 19+ completions (-101)

The Philadelphia Eagles are as decimated of an offense as we've seen in the league this season. Three starting linemen from Week 1 are out for this game, as are RB1 Saquon Barkley, WR1 DeVonta Smith and now QB1 Jalen Hurts, who has a blood clot that might keep him out indefinitely. In for Hurts and contending with this depleted roster is backup Tanner McKee, who originally lost the QB2 job out of camp to Andy Dalton.

But McKee isn't a slouch. In two career starts, McKee has 30 and 24 completions. He's a rhythm pocket passer who knows where to go with the football. The Carolina Panthers have been a stiff pass defense for much of this season by completion percentage, but they're still down both starting cornerbacks in Mike Jackson and Jaycee Horn, and we've seen the backups play for only one game in Week 4 before Carolina's Week 5 bye. It's still unclear how good Carolina's secondary will be in the interim.

As such, I'm betting on McKee, in what is likely a trailing game script, to take underneath completions, especially with the running back injuries behind Barkley, which should discourage the Eagles from too many handoffs. I'll be taking alts on completions here up to 24+.

Brock Bowers 8+ receptions (+140)

Bowers has seen 14, 11 and 10 targets through three healthy games this season as he continues to establish himself as one of the league's best receivers. And that's what he is; 83% of Bowers' routes have come from the slot or wide alignments this season, and his primary matchup defender in each of his three games has been a cornerback. Bowers gets thrown to, and treated like, a wideout.

No defense has seen a greater volume of plays go to receivers lined up out wide than the Bills, because of both their weaker cornerback room and the leads they generate on offense, forcing opponents into heavy pass scripts. Buffalo has seen 85 pass attempts and 55 completions to outside receivers (both lead the league), and its passer rating allowed to quarterbacks targeting outside receivers is eighth worst among league defenses. You can throw on the Bills everywhere, but especially to the outside.

As such, I expect easy volume for Bowers, especially as the Las Vegas Raiders lack the necessary running game to shorten the contest against a high-flying Bills offense. With plenty of snaps and a desire to get the ball out of Kirk Cousins' hands quickly, receptions is my preferred angle over receiving yards here.

Check out the latest Super Bowl odds and major NFL awards futures.

Walder's prop bets

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Note: More defensive props will be added as odds become available

Defensive plays

Green Bay Packers to record first sack of game (+150)

I get it, the Packers have a bad offensive line. That works against us here. But you know what helps? That the Dallas Cowboys don't have a pass rush! Dallas ranks 31st in pass rush win rate. Of course, the Packers aren't much better in that department, but at least we have this going for us: The Cowboys are the second-heaviest passing team in the NFL, according to pass rate over expectation from NFL Next Gen Stats. That means, perhaps, an extra chance or two early for the Packers' defense to get that first sack. At plus-money, we'll take it.

New Orleans Saints to NOT allow a first-drive sack (-385)

The New York Giants defense's low 4.4% sack rate has been a disappointment considering the names in its front seven. I do believe the Giants are better than that -- they still rank fifth in pass rush win rate -- but I don't think they should get this much respect for a first-drive sack. The Giants are light underdogs, and Tyler Shough has taken sacks at a slightly lower-than-average rate (5.8%). Given all that, my model believes this is a favorable price.

Cleveland Browns D/ST anytime touchdown (+700)

I'll admit I was a little surprised that this bet came back as a value considering it's operating under the expectation that Lamar Jackson will return to action this week. But the Browns actually do rank 10th in EPA allowed per dropback, so that's something. Mostly, this is a bit of a blind faith bet on my model, which prices this prop at +541.

Offensive plays

Bryce Young pass attempts UNDER 33.5 (-116)

Let me put it this way: My model would have liked this bet before the news broke that Jalen Hurts would miss this game with a blood clot in his calf. That news moved the Panthers to 3.5-point favorites, which tells the model there's a greater chance that the Panthers are winning in the second half and therefore have a run-heavy game script. The Panthers have been very pass-heavy this season (third-highest pass rate over expected, per NFL Next Gen Stats), but the Eagles' defense has the seventh-lowest pass rate over expected against it. That suggests to the model that the Eagles might be inducing more runs from their opponents, which works in our favor.

Clay's top predicted anytime TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown this week? Whether you intend to make an anytime touchdown bet, are setting a DFS lineup or simply enjoy peering into a crystal ball, I have a prediction for you.

Every week, we generate fantasy football projections for every game on the slate, and that includes the probability that a player will take the ball into the end zone.

Here are my top predicted scorers for Week 6, ordered by their implied odds*, as well as the anytime touchdown moneyline offered by DraftKings at time of publication. These implied odds are what my projections consider the fair odds of that player to score on an anytime touchdown bet.

For the latest odds on these and all other player props, visit DraftKings.

*Implied odds convert the probability of an outcome projected by Mike Clay into a moneyline. Look for implied odds that are higher than the moneyline offered. For example if the implied odds are -150 and the moneyline is -110, then Clay's projection system indicates an advantage for the bettor. If the implied odds are +110 but the line offered is -110, the projection system sees a disadvantage to be avoided.