Bloomington gets top billing as No. 5 Indiana hosts its first AP top-10 matchup against No. 4 Ohio State.
The unbeaten Hoosiers ended a 30-game losing streak to the Buckeyes last year on their way to a national championship. Now they've won 22 straight, while Ohio State arrives with a loss to Texas and unfinished business.
Beating the Buckeyes once was historic. Doing it twice? Since 2000, only Michigan and Wisconsin have beaten Ohio State in consecutive years. Indiana has a chance to join that short list in front of its own fans.
Let's tackle how this matchup sets up and where I see a couple of betting opportunities.
Odds by DraftKings
and subject to change.
No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes (-3.5) at No. 5 Indiana Hoosiers
Saturday, 7:30 ET, ABC
Records: Ohio State 5-1, 1-1 vs. AP Top 25; Indiana 6-0, 0-0 vs. AP Top 25
Money line: Ohio State (-110); Indiana (+150)
Over/Under: 50.5 (O -118, U -102)
The matchup: Who can still hit the big plays?
Ohio State and Indiana both rank in the top 10 in adjusted efficiency. Both can score, and both have defenses that make opponents work. What interests me is which offense can still find those big gains when moving the ball gets more difficult.
Indiana has the country's most efficient passing attack, with Josh Hoover not having thrown an interception. But Ohio State ranks first in passing success rate allowed. If the Buckeyes take away those easy completions, can Indiana keep drives going? Nebraska held the Hoosiers to 13 first downs and a single third-down conversion last week.
Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith get the more inviting passing matchup. Indiana has been vulnerable to big gains through the air, allowing Nebraska's Jacory Barney Jr. to catch nine passes for 107 yards.
Getting yards and finishing drives are two different things. Ohio State hasn't consistently run the ball well on the road, and Indiana's Tobi Osunsanmi and Stephen Daley each have five sacks. A few big catches won't solve everything if Sayin keeps getting knocked backward.
I give Ohio State the edge. Indiana has more weaknesses compared to last season that Ohio State can exploit this time, specifically in coverage and tackling.
Bet: UNDER 50.5
Forget the names on the jerseys for a second and look at the defenses. Ohio State has been especially difficult to throw against. Indiana needed two late touchdown drives to escape Nebraska after converting just 1-of-10 third downs. Sustaining possessions could be tougher here.
Indiana's pressure can stall Ohio State drives even when the Buckeyes connect on big plays. Last year, Smith caught eight passes for 144 yards against the Hoosiers despite Ohio State giving up five sacks and scoring only 10 points. That concern remains: Sayin has been sacked seven times across road games at Texas and Iowa this season. Smith can pile up yards without Ohio State piling up points.
The pace is the concern, since both teams are comfortable playing quickly. But Ohio State has shown that moving the ball doesn't always mean keeping the scoreboard moving. The Buckeyes scored only three second-half points at Texas this season and none against Indiana last season, despite Smith having huge games. Even their 31-14 road win at Iowa shows there's room for substantial offensive production without clearing a higher total.
I'm counting on enough sacks, difficult third downs, while still leaving room for big catches and an effective offensive performance without four quarters of steady scoring.
Bet: Jeremiah Smith 130+ receiving yards (-103)
Ohio State keeps giving Smith more chances, and he keeps doing more with them, averaging 11 targets per game, up from 8.2 last season, while his yards per catch have increased from 14.3 to 19.1.
Look at the road games. Smith drew 16 targets at Texas and 14 at Iowa, finishing with 164 and 206 yards. If Indiana keeps this competitive, I expect Sayin to keep looking for him. Indiana can get stops, but it has also given up big passing plays, which fits how Ohio State uses Smith: more than 62% of his targets are at least 10 yards downfield. He'll get enough chances to turn a few completions into substantial gains.
With a bigger workload this season, I like 130+ at -103, an opportunity to boost his Heisman résumé even further.