NFL Week 5 betting guide: Analysis, best bets, TD predictions for Sunday

Value is value, no matter where -- or how -- you find it. And that's what we'll aim to do each week in this space: finding betting value.

Ben Solak, Seth Walder and Matt Bowen bring different perspectives into how they approach sports betting. Solak leans on his expertise in player evaluation and the X's and O's to find edges, while Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets, focusing mainly on defense. Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts positive matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league. Also included are fantasy projection creator Mike Clay's top predicted anytime TD scorers for Week 5.

From spreads and money lines to totals and defensive player props, a good price might be found anywhere. Results will be tracked throughout the season, with flat one-unit wagers for each listed bet. With that, let's dive into our best bets, the top game to bet, favorite defensive props to play and the top predicted TD scorers.

Note: Odds by DraftKings and subject to change.

Jump to:
Bowen's Game of the Week
Solak's plays | Walder's props
Clay's TD projections

Bowen's Game of the Week

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5, 44.5)
1 p.m. ET on CBS, Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh

We need to have a bounce-back week here after betting on the Bills last Sunday. So, let's pivot to a rested Pittsburgh team that played Thursday night in Week 4 at home against an Indianapolis team straight off a London trip. We'll look at both sides of the ball, then hit some props from this game and across the league in Week 5.

When the Steelers have the ball: Running back Jaylen Warren has seen his usage (and production) elevate over the past two games. During this stretch (against Cincinnati and Cleveland) Warren has averaged 6.5 yards per carry, 21 touches and 151 scrimmage yards. He's also playing fast on the tape, and there's a lot of outside zone here, with Warren finding daylight. Plus, he's getting the ball on swings, screens and checkdowns. This is a good matchup for Warren against a Colts defense giving up 131 rushing yards per game (28th in the league). I expect a volume day for the Steelers' lead back.

The Colts' defensive numbers in the pass game point to a Pittsburgh edge as well, as the Colts are giving up 261.3 yards per game through the air and are pressuring the QB at a rate of only 28.3% (29th in the league). But can the Steelers protect and give Aaron Rodgers time and a clean pocket? Rodgers has three touchdown passes and six completions of 15 or more air yards in each of his past two games, but he has been sacked seven times during that stretch and a total of 13 times on the season (tied for most in the league). Rodgers' declining mobility also plays a role, but he needs the pocket to throw vertically to DK Metcalf and work the play-action pass game in Mike McCarthy's offense.

When the Colts have the ball: This offense runs through Jonathan Taylor. The Colts' running back ranks fifth in the NFL at 88.3 rushing yards per game, and his 86 carries are the third most through four games. He's a volume back with home run ability. Taylor has 12 rushes of 10 or more yards this season, and he gets a Steelers defense that is giving up 4.3 YPC (20th). I'd expect a run-heavy approach from the Colts to start this one, but the Steelers should counter with more single-high coverages, spinning down from their split-safety shells to get numbers in the front.

Look for quarterback Daniel Jones to lean on play-action throws that mirror the run game. Jones ranks fifth in play-action attempts this season, and the Colts will look to open intermediate windows against a Steelers defense that plays heavy zone coverage (75.4% of coverage snaps). And without wide receiver Alec Pierce (IR/heel), there is a missing vertical element for the Colts, as Jones' 5.7 YPA ranks 28th. Josh Downs and Keenan Allen need to uncover and make themselves available to the QB in this one, and I would like to see tight end Tyler Warren featured more on seams and corner routes to create chunk plays.

Picks: Steelers -2.5 (-118), Under 44.5 (-118)

Top prop: Jonathan Taylor rushing + receiving yards OVER 105.5 (-114)

I'll trust the anticipated volume for Taylor, who has had at least 21 touches in all four games played this season, producing at least 110 total yards in two. With the rushing totals and targets on screens and check downs, Taylor should hit the over.

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Michael Florio: Jonathan Taylor looking like the RB3 of fantasy football

Now, let's get to some other bets I like ...

Christian Watson anytime TD (+195)

Watson has scored at least one touchdown in three of four games played, and he has four end zone targets on the season. Plus, we know Watson can separate over the top. I like the matchup here for the Packers' receiver against the Bears' cornerbacks, and Matt LaFleur can also scheme zone-beaters for Watson.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks total points UNDER 45.5 (-105)

In the two games these clubs played last season, the totals hit 30 and 16. Mike Macdonald has the scheme (and personnel) to limit the 49ers' offense. I'd take the under in this one.

Three-team parlay (+638)

Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Cleveland Browns +1.5 at New York Jets
Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 at New England Patriots

The Jaguars might be the best team in football, and they get an Eagles squad that is going through major in-season transitions on the offensive line. Plus, Philly will be without Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith.

Cleveland also is playing good ball. Todd Monken's offense can take vertical shots in the pass game, and the downhill rushing attack is a foundational approach with Quinshon Judkins. The Browns can run the ball against a Jets defense that just gave up 232 yards on the ground to the Bears in Week 4.

Let's finish this parlay with the Raiders getting points on the road in New England. Las Vegas features a top-10 passing defense, and quarterback Kirk Cousins is an easy fit in Klint Kubiak's schemed-up system. The Raiders need more here from Ashton Jeanty and the run game, but I like them to cover.

Solak's plays

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Stephen A. questions whether Jayden Daniels can stay healthy for Commanders

Washington Commanders -3.5 vs. New York Giants

The 1-3 Commanders welcome Jayden Daniels back to the starting lineup with the 3-1 New York Giants -- who still have Jameis Winston starting at quarterback -- coming to town. The Giants' 2-0 run with Winston has been extremely unimpressive. They beat the Titans 12-7 on a rainy and windy day in MetLife Staduim thanks to a game-sealing end zone pick from Jevon Holland. They beat the Cardinals 36-24 thanks to a 98-yard pick-six by Deonte Banks on fourth-and-goal. With a little bit better red zone execution from two of the league's worst starting quarterbacks, the Giants are 1-3.

As it is, the Giants are 27th in EPA per drive and in success rate during Winston's two starts, and they draw a plucky Commanders defense that can bring out the worst of Winston by blitzing heavily (second only to the Vikings in blitz rate) and forcing turnovers. Star receiver Malik Nabers sat out Wednesday's practice because of a sore knee, and if he is at all limited, the Giants' lack of pass-catching depth makes it challenging to move the ball with any consistency.

Washington is enduring a slew of its own injuries. Receivers Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs were both absent from Wednesday's practice, and their top two running backs (Rachaad White and Jacory Croskey-Merritt), two tight ends (Chig Okonkwo and Ben Sinnott), and both starting linebackers (Sonny Styles and Frankie Luvu) were all limited. Assuming most of the rep management midweek is preventative, the Commanders have more than enough talent to get a decisive home win against an inflated divisional opponent.

Quinshon Judkins rushing yards UNDER 59.5 (-114)

Only once has Judkins cleared this mark, and it was a game the Browns led nearly pole-to-pole at home against the Panthers in Week 3. On Sunday, they'll face a solid Jets run defense on the road. New York's overall numbers won't look good after a 30-carry, 146-yard outing from Kyle Monangai last week, but the Jets' defense was on the field for over 44 minutes in that game. The Bears are a spectacular rushing team and enjoyed a preposterous game script. I'm willing to throw away that outcome.

Judkins and the Cleveland running game simply have not been very effective. Judkins has a success rate of 27.1%, 88th out of 95 running backs with at least 15 carries. He's averaging 3.0 yards per carry, thanks in part to only 31 rushing yards before contact on the season. Unless he rips off a big one or the Browns get a dominant game script, it will be hard for him to nickel and dime his way to this number.

Zay Flowers 6+ receptions (-109)

The Zay Flowers over betting will continue until morale improves.

Flowers is on a ridiculous pace to start the season. Among receivers with at least 40 routes, Flowers is first in, well, just about everything. His 6.4 yards per route run is absurd. His 16.0 yards per target is preposterous. His 44.9% target per route run rate quite literally means he is targeted on almost every other route. For perspective, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has a 39% target rate and averages 11.7 yards per target.

We're getting a discounted Flowers line this week because Lamar Jackson is out. Offensive coordinator Declan Doyle's approach to the passing game -- funneling targets to Flowers at all costs -- will not change with Tyler Huntley in the lineup. Huntley is a solid backup and has experience working with Flowers, who has a 28.7% target rate on 80 routes across eight games with Huntley.

I prefer receptions to receiving yards this week, as I imagine Flowers will get an uptick in easy designed touches to help insulate the backup quarterback, but both are live.

Michael Mayer receiving yards OVER 30.5 (-109)

We're back to the well on Mayer, who did us solid last week and is back again with another abbreviated line. Mayer is priced as if he is a TE2 to Brock Bowers' TE1, but Bowers is functionally a wide reciever, so Mayer doesn't leave the field nearly as often as a TE2 usually does. Mayer's route share in the two weeks since Bowers returned to the lineup is 72.1%, 11th among all tight ends. It's right between Tucker Kraft and Juwan Johnson. The Raiders played 87% of their snaps last week in multiple-TE sets, and that trend isn't changing. They don't have the wide receivers to take snaps away from the tight ends. Mayer simply doesn't leave the field for passing downs.

Mayer gets a tougher defensive draw this week, as the Patriots are giving up only 5.5 yards per pass attempts to tight ends (sixth lowest) and a 68.4% completion rate (seventh lowest) through the first four weeks of the season. But his line simply doesn't jibe with how often he's on the field, nor the volume at which the Raiders throw the football -- especially as an underdog on the road.

I'll be taking Mayer at this line for a full unit and tracking half a unit on 40+ receiving yards at +165.

Kalif Raymond 4+ receptions (+123)

Raymond's furious start to the season crashed with a two-catch, six-yard performance against the Jets in Week 4, creating a strong buy-low opportunity. Raymond was the deep downfield target on two Tyson Bagent would-be interceptions (both reversed on penalty) and retained a 50% route rate on Bears dropbacks. It should have been another decently productive day.

With Bagent under center, there is some concern that the Bears' target distribution will shift as he discovers which receivers he likes best. But wideouts tend to catch the football against the Packers -- they are giving up a completion percentage of 70.8% to wide receivers on the season, fifth highest in football -- thanks in part to the soft coverages and easy underneath access afforded by their defensive structure. We know Ben Johnson won't shy away from a high-volume passing day, even with his backup quarterbacks, so it's fair to project Raymond closer to his Weeks 1-3 production (8, 5 and 6 catches) than his Week 4 disappearance.

Tyson Bagent interceptions OVER 0.5 (-102)

Bagent gave the Jets -- the Jets! -- their first interception since the 2024 season last week, and he tried to give them another three, all of which were called back because of penalties. Four would-be interceptions sounds like a lot ... and it is! Bagent had 36 dropbacks, as the Bears enormously outpossessed the Jets (89 plays to 32). But with his pass attempts line set for 31.5 this week against the Packers, we can expect him to have volume again.

Bagent is a better passer than he was when he last made starts in his rookie season in 2023, and he certainly didn't enjoy the insulation of a Ben Johnson offense back then. But he was a high-interception player at that time as well, throwing six picks over 143 pass attempts. Bagent's career INT rate on dropbacks is 3.3%, eighth among all quarterbacks since 2023. He's just below Jameis Winston (3.7% INT rate), who is priced at -184 this week against the Commanders.

The Packers' defense has generated four picks through four games this season. Defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon is blitzing more than he did in Arizona, and his wonky safety structures can bait young quarterbacks into bad throws. I'd take this out to -110.

Check out the latest Super Bowl odds and major NFL awards futures.

Walder's prop bets

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Why fantasy managers should look to add Jacob Rodriguez

Note: More defensive props will be added as odds become available

Defensive plays

Los Angeles Chargers to record first sack of game (+175)

Yes, the Broncos are favored. Yes, Bo Nix is very good at sack avoidance. And yes, Denver has the better offensive line. But that's not enough to swing the odds this far, at least according to my model, which prices this bet at +127. One thing working in our favor: The Chargers are very run-heavy relative to expectation based on game situation, so that could limit the number of sack opportunities for the Broncos early.

Cincinnati Bengals will NOT give up a sack on their first drive (-448)

The Dolphins had not recorded a single sack until last week's game against the Vikings, and I'm surprised the odds are so favorable for Cincinnati to avoid taking a sack on the first drive here. Joe Burrow has been fairly good at sack avoidance this season, with a better-than-average 5.3% sack rate behind an offensive line that is middle of the road in terms of pass block win rate -- or, another way to put it, a lot better than it has been at any point in Burrow's pro career.

Offensive plays

David Montgomery 1.5 receptions OVER (+119)

Though Montgomery's production has been disappointing, he has covered this receptions line in three of four games. That's not really why I'm backing him here. Instead, it's because the Titans play zone coverage at a league high 80%(!) clip, and running backs catch passes almost twice as frequently on dropbacks vs. zone (15% of the time since 2022) than man (8%). And based on my backtesting, that effect is not fully baked into the market.

Geno Smith under 0.5 interceptions (+122)

Interception props typically hover right around 50%, and it's rare to see this much plus-money on a player whose team is favored in a game and hasn't thrown an interception yet this season! Even considering Smith's play last year (when he led the league in interceptions thrown with 17), this is just too generous a price. That the Jets have been a run-leaning team thus far in 2026 also helps.

Clay's top predicted anytime TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown this week? Whether you intend to make an anytime touchdown bet, are setting a DFS lineup or simply enjoy peering into a crystal ball, I have a prediction for you.

Every week, we generate fantasy football projections for every game on the slate, and that includes the probability that a player will take the ball into the end zone.

Here are my top predicted scorers for Week 5, ordered by their implied odds*, as well as the anytime touchdown moneyline offered by DraftKings at time of publication. These implied odds are what my projections consider the fair odds of that player to score on an anytime touchdown bet.

For the latest odds on these and all other player props, visit DraftKings.

*Implied odds convert the probability of an outcome projected by Mike Clay into a moneyline. Look for implied odds that are higher than the moneyline offered. For example if the implied odds are -150 and the moneyline is -110, then Clay's projection system indicates an advantage for the bettor. If the implied odds are +110 but the line offered is -110, the projection system sees a disadvantage to be avoided.