Week 9 was the quietest week of the Survivor season after eight weeks of mostly chaos. For the first time in two years, only one underdog won outright, the Green Bay Packers upsetting the New England Patriots on the road. Over 97% of entries advanced last week, by far the most this season.
Still, only 1.9% of ESPN Survivor entries from the start of the season remain alive as we are officially past the halfway mark of the season.
Week 10 is a particularly interesting week, as each of the five biggest moneyline favorites all play on the road. Three are favored by more than a touchdown, including the Buffalo Bills, who are currently the heavy chalk at 40% selected.
Despite being one of the Super Bowl favorites, the Bills are still 68% available in ESPN Survivor. At this stage of the season, check your individual groups, as that number will vary widely, but the Bills have not had many obvious spots to use them until now.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are the biggest favorites of the week, but they are just 38% available on ESPN and even lower in some other major contests (37% on Splash, 25% on Circa). But just like we said last week, there will still be plenty more spots to use Jacksonville, including each of the next two weeks (at New York Giants, vs. Tennessee Titans).
While the Bills and Jaguars are the two elite teams on the menu this week, there are a lot of other intriguing options if you can stomach them. Despite losing Puka Nacua, the Los Angeles Rams are now up to 9.5-point favorites on the road against the Arizona Cardinals, who will be starting rookie Carson Beck with a receiving corps that already dealt Marvin Harrison Jr. and lost both Kendrick Bourne and Michael Wilson for the season. Of course, the Cardinals upset the Rams as 13.5-point underdogs in Week 6, which knocked out 35% of the field at the time.
The Seattle Seahawks are up to 6.5-point favorites on the road against the Las Vegas Raiders. That line moved 3.5 points after the Raiders traded Kirk Cousins, though the Seahawks are expected to start Drew Lock for a second straight week. The Houston Texans are going to come in very low-selected on the road against the Cleveland Browns, but if you still have them available, there are plenty of better spots, so while they are a fine pick, I lean towards saving them.
If your goal is to try to get different, the Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Chargers are both on the road, putting their opponents in play. Jacoby Brissett and the Baltimore Ravens host the winless Chargers, while the lowly Indianapolis Colts host the Dolphins. There are enough strong options where the risk probably isn't worth it at this point, but it will put you in strong position if you can get by with either one.
Based on the current ESPN selections, the Rams are the obvious choice. They are bigger favorites than the Bills with less future value at a fraction of the ownership. However, in sharp contests, I expect their selection percentages to flip with the Rams being the heavy chalk. In that case, I would prefer the Bills.
Note: Odds by DraftKings and subject to change. Future value based on Mike Clay's cheat sheet.
1. Los Angeles Rams (at Arizona Cardinals)
Out of the three biggest favorites this week, the Rams have the least future value. So at 13% ownership on ESPN as of Wednesday morning, they would be a slam dunk pick. They host the Dallas Cowboys in Week 15, and they visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 17, but their other games are against the Green Bay Packers, Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks (twice). Yes, it's scary to take the Rams without Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, but the Cardinals are even more banged up and nowhere near the team that upset the Rams in Week 6.
Chance to win: 87% (ESPN Analytics), 96% (Mike Clay)
Spread: Rams -9.5 (-425 moneyline)
Notable games: vs. Cowboys (Week 15)
Availability: 63%
ESPN Selection: 13%
2. Buffalo Bills (at New York Jets)
At 40% picked, it is hard not to justify saving the Bills. Next week, the Bills are 16.5-point favorites over the Dolphins on the lookahead line, the largest point spread all season. However, there are several other strong choices next week, and taking the Bills now allows you to get off that chalk next week. The Bills would be my top pick in most sharp contests for that reason, but if you want to save them and take them next week, it's hard to blame you.
Chance to win: 83% (ESPN Analytics), 90% (Mike Clay)
Spread: Bills -8.5 (-485 moneyline)
Notable games: vs. Dolphins (Week 11), at Dolphins (Week 17), vs. Jets (Week 18)
Availability: 68%
ESPN Selection: 40%
3. Seattle Seahawks (at Las Vegas Raiders)
Last week, the Seahawks were very similar to the Rams as a big favorite with low ESPN selection that I expected to rise in sharper contests. However, once Sam Darnold was ruled out, the line moved against Seattle, keeping their selection relatively low. Surprisingly, the Seahawks are still 68% available on ESPN, so at 7% picked, they are a strong choice right now. They have some future value, but with over 50% of the field likely to still have them, this is a chance to get them as a reasonable favorite before the other players consolidate on them later.
Chance to win: 74% (ESPN Analytics), 72% (Mike Clay)
Spread: Seahawks -6.5 (-285 moneyline)
Notable games: vs. Giants (Week 14), at Eagles (Week 15)
Availability: 68%
ESPN Selection: 7%
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (at Tennessee Titans)
The Jaguars are the biggest favorites on the board this week, so 19% selection isn't too bad. However, they are available to only 38% of entries, meaning half of them are using them this week. With an elite remaining schedule (five games with at least 70% win probability according to Mike Clay and ESPN Analytics' models) they will continue to be a better play each week as long as Trevor Lawrence remains healthy. Still, it's hard to dock them too much as the only double-digit favorites in Week 10. They would rank higher on this list in groups with very few people remaining, but if you are chasing the grand prize trying to last all 18 weeks, I would keep saving them.
Chance to win: 84% (ESPN Analytics), 96% (Mike Clay)
Spread: Jaguars -10.5 (-600 moneyline)
Notable games: at Giants (Week 11), vs. Titans (Week 12), vs. Steelers (Week 14), vs. Commanders (Week 17), at Colts (Week 18)
Availability: 38%
ESPN Selection: 19%
5. Baltimore Ravens (vs Los Angeles Chargers)
To me, taking the Ravens this week comes down to whether or not you think Lamar Jackson returns. If Jackson comes back, Week 14 (vs. Buccaneers), Week 16 (vs. Cleveland Browns) and Week 18 (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers) are all potential weeks to use the Ravens. If not, then the Ravens become a viable pick as a 4.5-point favorite with very little future value.
Chance to win: 46% (ESPN Analytics), 70% (Mike Clay)
Spread: Ravens -4.5 (-218 moneyline)
Notable games: None
Availability: 50%
ESPN Selection: 3%
6. Houston Texans (at Cleveland Browns)
Both ESPN Analytics and Mike Clay's models like the Texans more than the betting market this week. And similar to the Seahawks, the Texans are a reasonable favorite available to over two-thirds of entries at minimal ownership. However, Houston has many more usable spots than Seattle does, and most of those spots will have higher projected win probability. I lean towards saving them.
Chance to win: 76% (ESPN Analytics), 67% (Mike Clay)
Spread: Texans -4.5 (-225 moneyline)
Notable games: vs. Colts (Week 11), vs. Ravens (Week 12), at Eagles (Week 16), vs. Titans (Week 18)
Availability: 69%
ESPN Selection: 2%
7. Indianapolis Colts (vs. Miami Dolphins)
A 2-7 team as a 3.5-point favorite tells you what the market thinks of Kyle McCord and the Dolphins. The Colts have an easy remaining schedule, but they are also a bad football team, so it is unlikely they will have any usable weeks down the road. There is too much risk involved with the Colts to make them a priority, especially if not many people remain in your group. But if you've already used all the teams above them, and your future path looks murky, this could be a way to burn a team with no future value and give yourself more options later. That is, if you survive.
Chance to win: 82% (ESPN Analytics), 63% (Mike Clay)
Spread: Colts -3.5 (-192 moneyline)
Notable games: None
Availability: 98%
ESPN Selection: 3%