Welcome to ESPN NFL Survivor! The rules are simple: Pick one NFL team each week to win its game. If that team wins (or ties), you advance to the next week. If that team loses, you are out. The catch is that each team can be chosen only once. ESPN's game requires just one team each week, so that will be the focus of this column, though I will touch on other major contests.
For the third time in five weeks, the top-picked team in ESPN Survivor fell. This time, it was the Dallas Cowboys, who were picked by 35% of entries against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Since the loss came on Thursday, the concentrated selection on the Houston Texans and Cincinnati Bengals opened up other potential leverage opportunities.
However, two of the top potential low-future value picks both tied or lost in the Washington Commanders and Atlanta Falcons. Luckily for those who play ESPN Survivor, Commanders backers advanced to Week 6, unlike in Circa Survivor or Splash Sports. Entering Week 6, only 9.7% of entries in ESPN Survivor remain.
The biggest favorites in Week 6 are the Los Angeles Rams. While favorites of at least eight points are a paltry 5-5 outright, the four double-digit favorites this season are 4-0 outright.
In contests that require one pick per week, the Rams are the optimal pick, especially in smaller groups that are unlikely to last all season. However, in large pools, and pools with multi-pick weeks, I prefer to save the Rams for later.
The Rams make a ton of sense as the biggest favorites of the week in their largest projected favorite role all season. However, Los Angeles is also projected to be favored in all but one or two of their remaining games, and as we get deeper into the season, having teams like the Rams available is valuable. That's especially true in Circa and Splash, which require multi-pick weeks, especially with the Rams projecting to be the biggest favorites on Circa's Thanksgiving slate.
The San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs are both laying over a touchdown, but they have the two lowest availabilities among all remaining teams (Chiefs 37%, 49ers 44%). Both are fine contrarian picks this week, though both have significant future value, especially the 49ers.
The New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts are the other strong choices this week. While they arguably have less win equity in Week 6, both have significantly less future value than the Rams, Chiefs and 49ers. However, both teams face the Dolphins in the next few weeks, so they will have other opportunities.
Note: Odds by DraftKings and subject to change. Future value based on Mike Clay's cheat sheet.
1. Los Angeles Rams (vs Cardinals)
The Rams are the biggest favorites in the betting market by far in Week 6, and it's projected to be their largest favorite role all season. However, they are also projected to be one of the biggest favorites in each of the next three weeks (at Las Vegas Raiders, vs. Los Angeles Chargers, at Washington Commanders), and they rank fifth in my future value model the rest of the season. Plus, on Circa, they play on both holiday slates, including a home game against the Green Bay Packers in the Thanksgiving slate. Ultimately, it comes down to what kind of Survivor player you are. Are you looking for the best pick in Week 6, or are you looking to map out your path for all 18 weeks?
Chance to win: 88% (ESPN Analytics), 93% (Mike Clay)
Spread: Rams -12.5 (-900 moneyline)
Future value: Fifth
Availability: 95%
ESPN Selection: 33%
2. New England Patriots (vs. Jets)
In larger groups, or contests with multi-pick weeks, the Patriots would be my top pick. While they have two games left against the Miami Dolphins, the home game doesn't come until Week 18, while the road game in Week 8 also includes the Cincinnati Bengals hosting the Tennessee Titans and the Dallas Cowboys hosting the Arizona Cardinals, two other very strong pivots. Outside of those two games -- and I generally don't worry about Week 18 this early in the season -- this is the best chance all season to use New England. The Patriots are 16-1 over their last 17 home meetings against the Jets, with the only loss coming in Bill Belichick's final NFL game. Just make sure to monitor the injury reports, especially on the Jets offense.
Chance to win: 79% (ESPN Analytics), 75% (Mike Clay)
Spread: Patriots -7.5 (-345 moneyline)
Future value: 13th
Availability: 96%
ESPN Selection: 21%
3. Indianapolis Colts (vs. Titans)
There are likely only two weeks all season where the Colts will be a strong favorite; this week, and Week 10 hosting the Dolphins. In a vacuum, the Dolphins matchup is better. However, with only 15% of ESPN entries on the Colts as of Tuesday evening, that Miami game looks like it will be the heavy chalk in Week 10. So if you are the kind of Survivor player who likes to fade the top pick each week, this is a great week to use the Colts in a great spot where they will be slightly lesser selected.
Chance to win: 72% (ESPN Analytics), 77% (Mike Clay)
Spread: Colts -7 (-340 moneyline)
Future value: 17th
Availability: 99%
ESPN Selection: 15%
4. Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Chargers)
Both the betting market and Mike Clay's model view the Chiefs as the second-biggest favorites this week. And since the Chiefs are available by only 37% of entries in ESPN Survivor, they are projecting to be only 5% picked. The Chiefs host the Jets and Cardinals in Weeks 9 and 11, but outside of that, they probably won't be usable again until the final couple weeks. However, in each of those weeks, there are several other strong picks, making this week stand out as a strong week to burn the Chiefs.
Chance to win: 74% (ESPN Analytics), 93% (Mike Clay)
Spread: Chiefs -8.5 (-500 moneyline)
Future value: Fourth
Availability: 37%
ESPN Selection: 5%
5. San Francisco 49ers (vs. Commanders)
The 49ers are now the Super Bowl favorites at DraftKings, and ESPN Analytics views them as the best team in the NFL. As a result, they rank highest in future value. Outside of Week 16 (at Chiefs), the 49ers will likely be favored in every game the rest of the season. Still, ESPN Analytics views this as the 49ers' easiest game the rest of the season, making this a fine week to burn them, especially since almost all the biggest favorites this week are some of the best teams in the NFL.
Chance to win: 86% (ESPN Analytics), 86% (Mike Clay)
Spread: 49ers -7.5 (-440 moneyline)
Future value: First
Availability: 44%
ESPN Selection: 8%
6. Buffalo Bills (at Raiders)
The Bills are a consideration for me in Splash only. While they are third in future value on ESPN, most of that value is in Week 11 hosting the Dolphins, where they will likely be one of the most popular selections all season. Their other easiest games are in Week 10 (at Jets), Week 17 (at Dolphins) and Week 18 (vs. Jets), none of which are double-pick weeks in the major Splash contests. So if you are looking to create a unique path and get off that Week 11 chalk, this is one of the best weeks to use Buffalo.
Chance to win: 72% (ESPN Analytics), 57% (Mike Clay)
Spread: Bills -5.5 (-258 moneyline)
Future value: Third
Availability: 83%
ESPN Selection: 4%
The Road to 18-0
Week 1: Jaguars (vs Browns) - Win
Week 2: 49ers (vs Dolphins) - Win
Week 3: Chiefs (at Dolphins) - Win
Week 4: Vikings (vs Dolphins) - Win
Week 5: Texans (at Titans) - Win
Week 6: Rams (vs Cardinals)