Availability is paramount in Knockout league lineup planning.
We've already seen its effect through five weeks. Seven of the 25 players with the highest knocked-out rates sat out those weeks due to injury. Another eight of those 25 left their games early, playing fewer than 50% of their teams' offensive snaps, with injuries. Additionally, Week 5 brought us the second-most-knocked out player all year, CeeDee Lamb, who left Thursday's game with a quadriceps injury, finishing his day with 2.9 fantasy points while playing only 55% of the Dallas Cowboys' snaps.
The converse is that Carolina Panthers and Kansas City Chiefs players, who enjoyed their byes in Week 5, now possess a significant advantage over the rest of the field due to their full availability over the Knockout season's 12 remaining weeks. This will be similarly true for Cincinnati Bengals, Detroit Lions, Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings players a week from now -- assuming you can keep your team in the race through their Week 6 byes.
It's simple math: Panthers and Chiefs players, on average, offer 9% more lineup utility than players from any other team, simply by having an extra game remaining on their schedule. It has been a tried-and-true strategy in any fantasy football league to trade more aggressively for players whose bye weeks have passed and, when they're comparable in value, trade away players whose bye weeks lie ahead.
Two of the four best players in terms of fantasy points per game, Jahmyr Gibbs and Kenneth Walker III, reside in this advantageous group. Proof positive that an early bye week is a major hindrance to Knockout success is that Walker, fourth in the league in points per game, was the fourth-most-common name found on teams knocked out in Week 5. If you managed to be among the other 88.4% of teams that made it through unscathed despite rostering Walker, you're now in great shape at the running back position the rest of the way.
Gibbs' fantasy managers should push that much harder on the FAB front for a quality replacement running back, knowing that they'll be in the same position a week from now and that they'll get 10% more availability from him and his fellow Lions, on average, from Week 7 forward. (And each passing week, the advantage of having a bye week in the rearview gets incrementally greater; 11 versus 10 games, 10 versus nine, etc.)
With that in mind, let's get to those post-bye (and all) bid recommendations ...
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The 20 most-knocked-out players exiting Week 5
Note that FAB recommendations are in three tiers: "% OF FAB TO BID (ENFORCE)" is a low-end recommendation if you don't necessarily need the player but don't want him gifted to the competition. "% OF FAB TO BID (MEDIAN)" is the recommended bid for a team with average needs at that position. "% OF FAB TO BID (AGGRESSIVE)" is advised for teams thin at that specific spot.
My favorite pickup of the week
Kenneth Walker III, RB, Chiefs (11.6% knocked out, fourth overall, RB1): The No. 9 overall player (and No. 4 running back) in terms of total fantasy points, Walker has everything going for him. Besides the rearview bye week, he has top-seven positional snap (75%) and rushing shares (74%), and his team projects to score 450-plus points while maintaining generally positive game scripts. If you've got the funds, even exceeding the aggressive bid recommendation is reasonable. Recommended bid: 22-45% of your full-season FAB budget.
Additionally, one of the eight players who has outscored Walker -- and who was a top-two overall preseason pick -- found himself knocked out in more than 7% of leagues: Bijan Robinson. Even in a "down" week by Robinson's standards, he scored 15.8 fantasy points, and he does have that relatively late bye (Week 11). Splurging with 25-48% of your budget to secure his services is also wise, being that by Week 11, the fill-in running back pool should be more plentiful than it is today.
Go get 'em
Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Panthers (10.5% knocked out, eighth overall, WR4): He's my "stealth WR1" among likely availables, and he's beyond his bye week. McMillan has 85% route participation, eighth highest among wide receivers, a 27% target share (ninth) and six red zone targets (tied for ninth), usage patterns that make him a fantastic fit for Knockout play even if his so-so remaining schedule means he'll have a few matchups you should try to avoid. Recommended bid: 11-27%.
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys (16.4% knocked out, most overall, WR1): The quadriceps issue bears watching, but he'll have had nine days of rest by the Cowboys' Sunday night game. Putting the slight risk aside -- and it's not significant enough to drop him into the next group -- Lamb is the clear alpha in the offense, with 90% route participation and a 33% target share when both he and George Pickens are on the field (Pickens' rates are 83% and 23%). Oh, and the Cowboys have that super-late Week 14 bye. Recommended bid: 12-32%.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs (9.2% knocked out, 17th overall, QB4): It's rare that I recommend a quarterback so early in the season, preferring to stream the position through at least the front nine weeks, but Mahomes' rearview bye and early excellence, coupled with the level of injury issues at the position, make him a worthwhile long-term investment. One note: Among potential partner quarterbacks, Jordan Love (@DET, CAR) makes an ideal, reasonable-FAB option for Mahomes (@SEA, @DEN) in Weeks 7 and 8. Recommended bid: 16-29%.
Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints (9.5% knocked out, 14th overall, WR5): He had scored at least 19 fantasy points in each of the season's first four weeks, and even in a dreadful matchup against the Vikings, he turned six targets into 8.6 points. Olave is fifth in route participation (86%) and seventh in target share (28%) among wide receivers. The only thing not to like here is that you'll have to find a sub for him soon, as he has a Week 8 bye. Even with that, Olave's odds of a top-10 wide receiver fantasy point total going forward are awfully good. Recommended bid: 13-28%.
Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens (11.2% knocked out, seventh overall, QB2): He's another worthwhile long-term quarterback investment, assuming the ankle injury that cost him Week 5 doesn't linger. Still, Jackson looked awfully good the first four weeks of the season working in Declan Doyle's fast-paced, heavy-misdirection offense, and the Ravens do have that late bye (Week 13). Jackson would be another strong partner for Love's managers, as Love faces the Cowboys this week in addition to those strong Weeks 7-8 matchups (and love draws another good matchup in the Saints in Week 13). Recommended bid: 15-31%.
Worthy, with worries
Tyler Shough, QB, New Orleans Saints (11.7% knocked out, third overall, QB1): He's a matchups quarterback, as illustrated in his awful Week 5 against the mighty Vikings, and his Saints have one of the position's tougher remaining schedules. Shough also has another big obstacle standing in his path -- a Week 8 bye, after which I'd suspect he'll again be high on the knocked-out list. Recommended bid: 4-10%.
Jeremiyah Love, RB, Arizona Cardinals (9.9% knocked out, 11th overall, RB3): To repeat last week's advice, "Adding Love is more of a long- than short-term play." Love has been on knocked-out teams in more than 9% of leagues in back-to-back weeks, joining Drake London, Colston Loveland, Kyle Pitts Sr. and Jameson Williams as the only healthy skill-position players who can claim that. Love and the Cardinals face the Los Angeles Rams this week. Yuck. Recommended bid: 9-25%.
No thanks
Carnell Tate, WR, Tennessee Titans (11.4% knocked out, sixth overall, WR3): I'm no Cam Ward believer, and the stats back up his being a poor fit for Tate's skill set, being that Ward has the fifth-worst passer rating on deep throws (20-plus yards downfield) and has only one completion all season on them. It's not that Tate can't help you -- he had 21.5 fantasy points in a 12-target Week 4 -- but there's too much weekly volatility here. Recommended bid: 4-16%.
Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos (9.6% knocked out, 13th overall, QB3): New playcaller (though Sean Payton is hardly "new" to the role), same shoddy results. At some point we need ask ourselves whether Nix's skills limitations, rather than the plays, are the issue. He and the Broncos get the Seattle Seahawks this week. There's not much reason to invest right now, even speculatively. Recommended bid: 3-9%.