It's easy to claim otherwise today, but there was little indication Cleveland Cavaliers PG/SG James Harden would suddenly become a fantasy disappointment this season. After all, Harden was terrific last season, averaging 43.5 ESPN fantasy points per game. Only 16 players scored more. Harden was 36 years old.
Is there really much difference between being 36 and 37 years old? (Guess I will find out in a few years when I turn 37, lol.) Harden may not have deserved a second-round slot in ESPN average live drafts, but there was regression built into projections and he fell to Round 4.
Harden is 11 games into the season and he's not performing as a top-50 fantasy option, certainly not yet anyway at 29.1 fantasy points per game, and many are whispering that this is the end of his time as a top point guard. It is fine if Immanuel Quickley, Fred VanVleet or Coby White average 15.3 PPG, 4.8 RPG and only 5.7 APG, but certainly not if Harden does so.
Perhaps we didn't expect quite another 20.5 PPG, 4.8 RPG and 7.7 APG (his numbers in 26 games with the Cavaliers after the LA Clippers trade), but the current numbers are just not cool.
Is it reasonable to ask if this is all we're going to get this season? Perhaps it is, but there is a bigger picture going on with Cleveland. Harden has only 13 assists and nine turnovers in his past three outings, only one of them a win (over the Philadelphia 76ers, of course).
He won't shoot a ghastly 36.4% from the field for long, but watching Harden and his missing usage it is clear he is more willing to defer shots and in directing the offense. His field goal attempts are down from 16 per game to 12, and free throw attempts down from 7.5 per game to 4.8. His minutes are also down. Hmm.
Typically, this would be a wise time to trade for Harden, so I will gently side with that one, with some caveat: It would be quite surprising if Harden finishes among the top 20 fantasy scorers again. Then again, the Cavaliers may be pacing all their stars for better playoff performance.
Who is earning Cleveland's shots? SG/PG Donovan Mitchell has seen his usage crumble as well, scoring 22.8 PPG, when last season it was 27.9 PPG. Even PF/C Evan Mobley is underachieving across the board, as he falls even further from potential 20-PPG, 10-RPG production.
Perhaps the Cavaliers are handling things perfectly here. The bench is certainly improved, with impressive second-round rookie SG Meleek Thomas hitting 47.8% of his 3-pointers and Croatian journeyman SF Mario Hezonja, back in the NBA after six seasons overseas, contributing a useful 19.9 MPG. Newcomer SF/PF Peyton Watson, who was more valuable in fantasy as a Denver Nugget last season, has solidified a starting role.
Yes, Harden (and to a lesser extent Mitchell and Mobley) are disappointing fantasy managers, but that appears to be, in a roundabout way, Cleveland's actual plan.
Other observations around the NBA
SF/SG Kon Knueppel investors couldn't have been pleased that the star shooter returned from his hamstring injury and played only six minutes before going down again, and now he is out for another month. We believe we were promised production and durability, too. Knueppel appeared in 81 games as a rookie, and he led the NBA in 3-pointers. Sigh, even young fellows can't stay healthy anymore. SG/PG Grayson Allen is doing his best to replicate the 3-point volume, but man, he is inconsistent from game to game. He scored 27 points Monday, after going scoreless a few days prior. Deal with the roller coaster ride, whether Knueppel is active or not.
I benched Brooklyn Nets PG Mikel Brown Jr. in a weekly league this week (because the Nets play only twice), and I suspect that's the final time to even consider such a notion. Brown, the No. 6 pick in the NBA draft, is being handled carefully, supposedly from a preseason ankle injury, and he has missed several games for "rest." He is 20! Whatever. Brown will soon become a valuable player, the obvious No. 3 option for the Nets, someone capable of at least 15.0 PPG and 6.0 APG. Perhaps poor shooting (34.6% from the field) is keeping his roster percentage low, but we must see the bigger picture here. Fantasy managers should be more interested.
Turnover update: LA Clippers PG Darius Garland averages a league-leading 5.1 TPG, gently ahead of Los Angeles Lakers PG Luka Doncic. It's fine for the obvious league MVP Doncic, averaging a ridiculous 39.3 PPG and 7.9 APG, to turn the ball over at a wild rate. Nobody would possibly complain there. It is not the same for Garland, who has played out of control and unfocused. I like Garland, but it seems improbable someone so talented could turn the ball over at that rate, and one more thing, what's with the 1.4 RPG? Not a misprint. Garland was never Jason Kidd with the boards, but 1.4 per game, including three games with nary a one? That is ... something.
Speaking of rebounds, how does Indiana Pacers C Ivica Zubac garner only three more boards than you and me Monday night against the Mavericks? Zubac is a legit 7-footer who averaged 12.6 RPG only two seasons ago. Let's just call this aberrant and move on, unless Zubac, who recently missed five games with a sprained ankle, remains physically compromised. Eh, I'm still trading for this walking double-double option.
I think, by next week, we will look at Chicago Bulls C Nic Claxton differently. Claxton played in 18 minutes in his season debut over the weekend. He looked fine with four points, four boards, four assists and two blocks. The minutes should soon rise, and he may become relevant for standard leagues. Claxton averaged 11.7 PPG, 6.9 RPG and, not to be forgotten, 3.7 APG last season for the Nets. He averaged 9.9 RPG a few years ago. The Bulls are directed by assist-heavy PG Josh Giddey, but Claxton has the skills to garner four per game. He's the starting center soon, rostered in 42.5% of ESPN leagues. Get more interested.
You bet I have noticed what Toronto Raptors PG Jamal Shead has done in his two starts replacing injured PG Immanuel Quickley (hamstring). Shead racked up 30 points and 27 assists, with only four turnovers! Unfortunately, Shead, who stands at only 6-foot, is not much of a shooter (career 38.5%!), and Quickley shouldn't miss much more time, but next time he does, you know what to do if you need assists in a roto format.