Notre Dame's CJ Carr is an excellent quarterback. He is asked to drop back to pass only about 30 times per game, and his stats are therefore simply solid -- he's eighth in QBR (84.4), and projected over 13 games he's on pace for about 3,100 passing yards and 30 touchdowns.
Here are some pretty good recent statistical comps: Indiana's Kurtis Rourke (3,042 yards, 29 TDs and an 85.1 QBR in 2024) and Ohio State's Kyle McCord (3,170 yards, 24 TDs and an 83.8 QBR in 2023). Those are solid players, and I think Carr's upside is even higher than theirs. He's unsackable, he's smart, he has won 18 of his past 19 starts, and he's coming off the best performance of his career in a win over top-ranked Miami.
With four weeks remaining before the Heisman Trophy vote, however, Carr is also now the betting favorite. Translation: The Heisman Trophy race is in an immense state of flux.
For context, McCord didn't finish in the Heisman top 10 in 2023, and Rourke was ninth in 2024. Granted, Indiana's Fernando Mendoza was only beginning to shift into Heisman mode after nine games last season -- he had fewer passing yards than Carr at this point (2,124 to Carr's 2,168), though he had more TD passes, far more rushing yards and a better QBR (90.0). But Carr's profile is closer to that of an excellent game manager, not a Jayden Daniels, Caleb Williams, Bryce Young or Joe Burrow. (Those are, along with Mendoza, the most recent Heisman-winning QBs.) But in a year in which early front-runners more or less drop out of the competition, weird things can happen.
This year, Heisman is running its Heisman Hopefuls Fan Vote all season with a platform that provides statistics, EA Sports ratings and other information. In that vein, I am once again awarding the Heisman every week of the season and doling out weekly points, F1-style (10 points for first place, 9 for second, and so on).
This has proved to be a fun approach, but it works a lot better when the lead drivers keep driving. Heading into Week 10, Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith led the points race, but his team has fallen into existential crisis since quarterback Julian Sayin got hurt, and his pace has dropped off considerably. Miami's Malachi Toney was second, but he suffered a high ankle sprain in practice and is out for a few weeks. Ole Miss' Trinidad Chambliss was fourth, but his supporting cast is not giving him enough support, and he's down to 17th in QBR and coming off of a shellacking by Georgia. Mississippi State's Kamario Taylor was fifth because of a beautiful September run, but he has barely played in the past month because of injury.
The points tally is a lovely concept, but it seems like the Heisman race basically started over this week, so let's juice the idea a bit. In acknowledgement of the circumstances, let's start offering double points each week: 20 for first place, 18 for second, etc. There's a case for doing this every year -- November is when the race truly shifts into gear regardless of injuries and other circumstances. (And hey, doubling the points late in the game works for "Jeopardy!") So let's try it out and see what happens. To be sure, if the race really did start over this week, Carr picked a good time to have his best game.
This week's Heisman winner: CJ Carr
1. CJ Carr, Notre Dame
Week 10 numbers: 29-for-40 passing for 319 yards and 3 touchdowns against Miami
In the first half of the huge Miami-Notre Dame primetime affair, Miami's Darian Mensah, last week's betting favorite, completed 6 of 12 passes for 74 yards while Carr went 18-for-26 for 205 yards and two scores. Carr was making big throws, his receivers were making big catches -- my goodness, Jordan Faison's end zone tiptoe was outstanding -- and the Irish led by 14. Then Carr's second pass of the second half expanded the lead to 21.
The narrative then lurched back and forth. With Notre Dame star corner Leonard Moore briefly out of the game, Mensah caught fire, and Miami charged back to get within seven points twice. But the Irish defense made a couple of key stops, and the offense moved the ball well enough to see out a 31-24 win. Carr finished with his third-most passing yards in a game and threw for at least three TDs for the seventh time. He was a star, and he gets this week's 20 points. The competition for the top spot was pretty fierce, though.
The rest of the top 10
2. Arion Carter, Tennessee
Week 10 numbers: 13 tackles, four TFLs, two sacks and a run stop against Kentucky
Arion Carter was in the news this summer when the NCAA NCAA'd its way into suspending him for taking a flight on an agent's dime before electing to return to college (and repaying the agent). He was having a strong final college season before Saturday, but he was an absolute wrecking ball against Kentucky, leading the team in tackles and TFLs and pacing a dominant 34-6 win.
3. Caleb Hawkins, Oklahoma State
Week 10 numbers: 20 carries for 175 yards and three TDs plus 71 receiving yards and a score against Kansas State
It was a big week for ridiculous offensive numbers in the Big 12, but before we get to the quarterbacks, let's celebrate the OSU offense as a whole -- the Cowboys have scored at least 39 points in seven of their past eight games and gained more than 530 yards in six -- and Hawkins in particular.
Aside from the blowout of Murray State, when he didn't get enough touches, Hawkins has topped 100 yards from scrimmage in every game, and in his past four outings he has averaged 26.3 touches (rushes and receptions) and 226.5 yards from scrimmage. An upset loss to Iowa State might have knocked OSU from the Big 12 race, but even in that game he was incredible (275 yards). He might be the best running back in the country.
4. Tommy Castellanos, Texas Tech
Week 10 numbers: 18-for-27 passing for 362 yards and five touchdowns plus 124 non-sack rushing yards against West Virginia
5. Michael Hawkins Jr., West Virginia
Week 10 numbers: 11-for-16 passing for 303 yards and a touchdown plus 107 non-sack rushing yards and three TDs against Texas Tech
We'll group these two together, as they put on a ridiculous show in Lubbock late Saturday night. Hawkins threw for at least 300 yards for the second time in three games, and he has topped 90 non-sack rushing yards in every game this season. He has gone over 300 combined rushing and passing yards five times, including in three losses. WVU's defense will likely prevent him from getting serious Heisman consideration, but he's putting together a brilliant year.
He was ever-so-narrowly outdueled by Castellanos, however. Castellanos has been on and off the Red Raiders roster thanks to eligibility fights, and his ceiling tends to get lower over the course of a season, but he has jolted the Tech offense into life in the past two games, and he bailed out the defense Saturday. We'll see if he can continue this pace, but Saturday night brought so many old-school Big 12 vibes (translation: ridiculous point totals and minimal defense) to the table. I loved it.
6. Nate Sheppard, Duke
Week 10 numbers: 18 carries for 217 yards and three touchdowns against NC State
If Hawkins isn't the best RB in the country, Sheppard probably is. This is the sophomore's third appearance on the Heisman of the Week list, and he has been at least as consistent as Sheppard. Hawkins has gained at least 120 yards from scrimmage eight times, he has scored at least one TD in every game (21 in all), and even in his least successful game (66 yards from scrimmage against Virginia), he threw the winning TD pass.
7. Kevin Jennings, SMU
Week 10 numbers: 24-for-32 passing for 350 yards, four TDs and one INT plus 23 non-sack rushing yards against Virginia Tech
As strange as it sounds, Wake Forest at SMU might have the highest stakes of any Week 11 matchup -- the winner will be the clear front-runner to face Miami in the ACC title game and maybe snag a CFP bid. And while SMU's defense has disappointed at times, allowing 71 combined points in two losses, Jennings' form continues to improve. He has topped 350 passing yards in each of the past two games and has an excellent shot at topping 4,000 for the year. The veteran still has the Mustangs in the hunt for a playoff return.
8. Drew Mestemaker, Oklahoma State
Week 10 numbers: 22-for-28 passing for 313 yards, four TDs and one INT plus a rushing touchdown against Kansas State
OSU's offense has been so ridiculous that there was evidently room for two Cowboys on this week's list. Mestemaker is now second in the nation in passing yards (2,962) and first in touchdown passes (29), and he averaged more than 11 yards per dropback Saturday -- his third time clearing that bar this season.
9. Keelon Russell, Alabama
Week 10 numbers: 17-for-24 passing for 206 yards and three touchdowns plus 37 non-sack rushing yards against LSU
Russell suffered quite a few negative plays in losses to Georgia and Tennessee, and it appeared his season was at a hinge point heading to Baton Rouge -- he was either going to raise his game or continue to falter, and Bama's season would go with him. Well, he was superb against an extremely aggressive LSU defense, taking only two sacks, completing four passes of more than 20 yards and running for three first downs in a surprisingly easy win.
10. Shadarius Toodle, Auburn
Week 10 numbers: 11 tackles, 4.5 TFLs, three sacks, two run stops and a pass breakup against Arkansas
Well this might be a first: In his first career game, Toodle made his first career Heisman of the Week appearance. Thrust into action due to injuries and starter Xavier Atkins' dismissal, Toodle was an absolute wrecking ball Saturday, leading the Tigers in tackles (no one else had more than six), making two huge third-down sacks and even breaking up a second-and-long pass in the fourth quarter. Auburn needed every single one of his contributions in a 26-23 win.
Honorable mention:
• Max Cutforth, Boise State (16-for-19 passing for 317 yards and four touchdowns plus a rushing TD against Colorado State)
• Devon Dampier, Utah (14-for-26 passing for 177 yards and two touchdowns plus 99 non-sack rushing yards, two rushing scores and a 29-yard reception against BYU)
• Aiden Flora, Iowa State (26 carries for 182 yards and a touchdown plus 20 receiving yards against Baylor)
• Jackson Gutierrez, Navy (29 non-sack carries for 186 yards and five touchdowns plus 178 passing yards, one TD and one INT against Temple)
• Baylor Hayes, Tulsa (26-for-33 passing for 338 yards and four touchdowns plus 16 non-sack rushing yards against Tulane)
• Blake Herold, Kansas (seven tackles, three TFLs, five run stops and a forced fumble against UCF)
• Alonzo Jackson Jr., Louisiana Tech (11 tackles, 2.5 TFLs, two sacks, one run stop, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery for a TD against Troy)
• Devonte Lyons, Florida International (24 carries for 215 yards and two TDs plus 21 receiving yards against Missouri State)
• Dylan Riley, Boise State (19 carries for 192 yards and two TDs plus 88 receiving yards and a score against Colorado State)
• J'Koby Williams, Texas Tech (19 carries for 160 yards and a TD plus 42 receiving yards against West Virginia)
Point totals and current odds
With the double points now in effect, here are your points leaders after 10 weeks. As always, players who are also in the top 10 in the DraftKings Heisman odds are in bold. (When there's a tie, I use a player's point total over the past four weeks to break it.)
1. Michael Hawkins Jr., West Virginia (29 points)
2. Keelon Russell, Alabama (29 points)
3. Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State (27.5 points)
4. Malachi Toney, Miami (27 points)
5. Caleb Hawkins, Oklahoma State (25 points)
6. Nate Sheppard, Duke (23 points)
7. CJ Carr, Notre Dame (22 points)
8. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (22 points)
9. Drew Mestemaker, Oklahoma State (21 points)
10. Kamario Taylor, Mississippi State (20 points)
I would love it if Michael Hawkins, an incredible transfer portal success story and a perfect QB template for a Rich Rodriguez offense, were to make it to New York for the Heisman ceremony. Caleb Hawkins and Sheppard would be super fun stories, too -- any time a player is so good that he earns votes despite not playing on a top-10 team, that means he's truly awesome. And hey, Week 11 is a great opportunity for surprises, with Sheppard facing Miami and both Mestemaker and Hawkins facing Texas Tech.
Mestemaker (+1550), Dampier (+1600) and Russell (+2400) still have opportunities to make a charge, especially if Utah remains unbeaten or Alabama ends up playing Georgia in the SEC championship game. But right now, the players atop the betting odds -- Carr (+220), Mensah (+250 and 12th in the points race) and Smith (+280), who still has a chance to lead an Ohio State playoff rally -- seem like the ones who should be. Let's see how this plays out.
Gordie Lockbaum of the week: Drew Miller
The smaller-school ranks were once again a bounty of huge performances and delightful stat lines. But with all respect to Youngstown State's ever-incredible Beau Brungard (423 passing yards against Murray State), Montana's Eli Gillman (244 yards from scrimmage against Portland State), Idaho's Joshua Wood (315 passing yards and 126 non-sack rushing yards against Eastern Washington) and Pittsburg State's Bobby Bacon (348 yards and four TDs in a last-minute win over Central Missouri), there could be only one Lockbaum winner this week.
In a delightful, back-and-forth game between Ohio Athletic Conference rivals Heidelberg and Capital, Heidelberg's Drew Miller gained 57 yards from scrimmage in the first quarter, 114 in the second and 153 in the third. After managing only 96 yards in the fourth quarter, he made up for this horrible lapse by scoring the winning touchdown for the Student Princes in double overtime. Miller finished with one of the most ridiculous stat lines you'll see: 46 carries for 391 yards and four touchdowns (including an 89-yarder) plus four receptions for 60 more yards and another score. Heidelberg moved to 7-2 with a 38-32 win, and I'm guessing Miller had himself a nice ice bath afterward.