Maybe your fantasy football team has started the season like the Los Angeles Chargers. In fact, maybe your fantasy football team is full of Los Angeles Chargers. Either way, welcome to another season of fantasy hoops.
Whether making an annual gridiron-to-hardwood pivot or coming to our game for the first time, you need not track every Shams Charania post or dissect every roster to get up to speed. We have you covered.
Some blend of the second apron -- think Jaylen Brown -- and second destinations -- Ja Morant and LaMelo Ball -- drove many of this summer's biggest moves. The goal is to decipher meaningful changes in the fantasy basketball landscape after a busy, dramatic offseason.
The All-Star Carousel
You know the big names who changed teams, but who is set to surge or sacrifice statistically? With apologies to Khris Middleton and D'Angelo Russell, we'll conduct a stock report on the following former All-Stars who changed teams this offseason. To get a sense of how the market values them, they are listed in order of ESPN average draft position.
Familiar First-rounder: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Miami Heat
A lost final season in Milwaukee gives way to a featured role in a coaching culture that gets the most out of elite, versatile forwards. Will the Heat lead the league in pace again now that this pick-and-roll engine is rostered? If the tempo remains, could this be his best statistical season in years? Consider me, along with Pat Riley, a believer
Health Permitting: LaMelo Ball, Minnesota Timberwolves and Kawhi Leonard, Toronto Raptors
Ball will almost certainly average more than the modest 28 minutes per game he hovered around in Charlotte last year. The front office consolidated the rotation, putting this big, brilliant playmaker on track for 30-plus minutes per night. Charlotte's breakneck, shoot-first system was ideal for his skill set, leaving a real question of offensive fit. Fit and health make Ball a risky, potentially rewarding pick.
Leonard is also in a better position to produce in Toronto; Scottie Barnes can take the toughest, most physical defensive assignments while providing playmaking gravity. Leonard is a league-winner if he plays more than 65 games.
Which Philly Forward? Jaylen Brown and LeBron James
This one is simple: Brown's potential to repeat last season's epic, MVP-caliber campaign is, well, quite low. Even with the market pricing in an expected sacrifice, it's hard to envision Brown providing a fantasy profit. Despite my Philly fandom, it's sensible to fade Brown.
James, on the other hand, could outperform his draft spot in a table-setting role rich in potential-and realized-assists. With pocket passes to Joel Embiid and slashes from Brown, Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe, can James recapture, or at least approach, the playmaking form that carried him to the passing title as the point guard of the 2019-20 Lakers?
Not that it has hurt his fantasy price, but I believe the tradeoff in touches or usage that Maxey makes for efficiency will prove profitable. I'm drafting him confidently at his draft price. Embiid? Re-read the Leonard blurb.
Get Buckets: Julius Randle, Brooklyn Nets and Tyler Herro, Milwaukee Bucks
These two remind me of a classic Eddie House scouting report: "Won't shoot unless he has the ball in his hands." Randle's usage in the post could mirror his best numbers from his days across the bridge in Manhattan. It's unlikely, however, that Randle will sustain the volume of minutes and touches from his prime, especially on a team incentivized to develop talent. That said, Randle is going to put up really fun tallies in points leagues when he's running hot.
No longer riding shotgun in South Beach, Herro can finally be, well, a hero. The Bucks have some incumbent guard talent in Ryan Rollins and Kevin Porter Jr., but no real competition for Herro's touches. The Wisconsin native will run a gauntlet of screens and command pick-and-roll duties in Taylor Jenkins' system. Found late in the middle rounds, Herro has the ingredients for big numbers.
Ripple Effects
When stars change teams, so do multiple rosters and rotations. While we focus on the stars, sometimes it's the secondary shifts that create the most value. Consider this the ripple effect of such seismic transactions.
A massive move such as Ball to the Timberwolves fittingly earns attention. Coby White? Not as much. This confident, heat-check artist should soak up minutes, playmaking touches, and gobs of shooting possessions as an important lead guard in Charlotte. I've already deemed Brandon Miller a breakout candidate given the usage and shots Ball vacates.
Sadly, Ja Morant is no longer inherently in the high-impact club above. There is still, of course, reason to track Morant's preseason play and eye test, as this is a former game-changing talent. The glut of guards in Portland curbs enthusiasm, especially given how odd the fit with Damian Lillard -- and even Scoot Henderson -- seems. Be dubious about a revival in this second destination.
A potentially positive ripple from the Morant move is Ty Jerome. This fun, if fragile, combo guard has posted absurd scoring and shooting splits whenever active in recent seasons. With Morant's ball-dominant game now out west, Jerome is an ideal ripple player to target.
Lost in the wake of Antetokounmpo's move to Miami is that Norman Powell is set to consume even more minutes, touches, and freedom to find his own shot in Chicago. I'm finding Powell on my rosters more often this fall. With the Detroit Pistons somewhat oddly purging their frontcourt, John Collins could be a massive winner from a statistical standpoint and a somewhat rogue winner of the offseason.
Dusty May, Micah Nori, and Sean Sweeney are all taking their first NBA head-coaching jobs, while Tiago Splitter gets his first full-time gig, adding another layer of uncertainty-and opportunity-to several already reshaped rosters. Keep an eye out for team-wide preseason trends such as pace and offensive rebounding rates, as these are some of the stickiest stats from preseason to the regular season and could provide early tells for these new clipboards.
Trendspotting
It helps to consider the larger, league-wide trends influencing the fantasy market. For instance, with so many proven offensive engines -- Luka Doncic, Cade Cunningham, Nikola Jokic, James Harden, Giannis -- and, conversely, so many modern share-the-ball systems, teams are less likely to funnel their offenses through mediocre playmakers.
Fewer offenses are built around one player creating everything; more have several four-to-six-assist players instead of a single 10-assist engine. That makes the remaining elite initiators more structurally valuable, while a superficially "good" five-assist guard may be easier to replace than old draft habits suggest.
This does also put a premium on players with predicted playmaking upside; Ajay Mitchell, Jerome, White, Darius Acuff Jr., Egor Demin, and Davion Mitchell come to mind. The scarcity of bankable creation also makes me more likely to take on risks in potentially elite passers like Darius Garland and even Lillard. Set reminder: chase creation.
Size matters, too. While lead playmakers are still the coin of the realm, size-particularly effectiveness on the glass and in rim protection-is being prioritized with each new French Alien. Or just the one. While only one fantasy team, just like in the NBA, can roster Victor Wembanyama, the wingspan race to keep up has surfaced in fantasy as well. You'll want to prioritize size and effectiveness in rebounding and blocks, no longer as an afterthought that can be made up with rim runners and waiver wonders.
Heading into your draft, remember that not every jersey swap is positive-and not every one is negative. The value lies in the context: role, teammates, pace, touches, and the opportunity left behind. Coaching changes will take time to reveal themselves, but attentive managers can read early signals before the market catches up.
More broadly, the ripples and trends are where value lives in a season defined by movement. Treat every major transaction as a prompt to look beyond the player in the headline; finding the other side of the move is a winning habit to carry into your draft.