The College Football Playoff selection committee raised some eyebrows after its first ranking of the season, with an unpredictable lineup that elicited everything from shock to outrage depending on the audience.
Maybe the members weren't that far off after all.
Ohio State, which was ranked No. 12 on Tuesday, actually isn't a CFP team after its third loss of the season. Turns out two-loss Alabama actually is that good after its drubbing of LSU at Tiger Stadium. And undefeated Utah? Well, yeah, the Utes are better than BYU.
As for the No. 1 team in the country?
Georgia might have something to say about that this week.
Expect another shake-up Tuesday night in the committee's second ranking of the season, starting at the top, where Miami's loss at Notre Dame opened the door for the SEC to reassert itself at the top of the sport. Oh, and those five SEC teams the committee had ranked in its top 10? Maybe the members didn't miss on that, either.
Based on the committee's first ranking, plus historical knowledge and an understanding of the criteria and protocol, here's what the members might do if the rankings were decided today.
Projecting the top 12
1. Georgia Bulldogs (8-1)
Why they could be here: Miami's loss to Notre Dame, coupled with Georgia's convincing win at Ole Miss, catapulted the Dawgs to the top spot. Georgia's win at Alabama on Oct. 10 looks even better after the committee deemed the Tide its top two-loss team, and Alabama beat LSU soundly Saturday.
Why they could be lower: Utah is undefeated and, on paper, earned one of the best wins of Week 10, knocking off the committee's No. 9 team in BYU. Notre Dame earned the best win of the season, upending No. 1 Miami. Georgia also has one of the worst losses of the contenders, Oct. 17 at home to unranked Auburn.
Need to know: Georgia has the best chance of any team in the SEC to reach the conference title game, where it would lock up a spot as the SEC champ or have a strong case as the SEC runner-up. With the number of two- and three-loss teams piling up, Saturday's win against Ole Miss gives the Dawgs a little cushion heading into back-to-back games against CFP top-25 opponents Missouri and South Carolina.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 21 at South Carolina. Saturday's game against Mizzou won't be easy -- the Tigers just gave Texas fits -- but the Nov. 21 game at South Carolina is a tricky road trap against one of the hottest three-loss teams in the country. The Gamecocks have reeled off four straight wins heading into a Week 11 trip to Arkansas.
2. Utah Utes (9-0)
Why they could be here: Utah now has two statement wins to go with its undefeated record -- against Houston last month and Saturday against BYU. The selection committee thinks Utah is better than UCLA, which is also undefeated. Selection committee chair Hunter Yurachek said their résumés are "almost identical," but Utah was "above UCLA and just a better team when we watch them play." Yurachek said Utah is "very balanced offensively. They've got a dynamic quarterback in [Devon] Dampier that runs that offense. He's a runner. He's a dynamic passer. They have a running game. They have receivers. And then they're really good on defense."
Why they could be lower: Some committee members might value Alabama's combination of eye test and résumé over Utah's undefeated record and a win against BYU. The Utes entered Week 10 with the No. 81 strength of schedule, according to ESPN Analytics -- well below Alabama and Texas, which are in the top 10.
Need to know: Utah probably knocked BYU out of the top 12, but the Big 12 still has two teams that can reach the CFP, as Texas Tech is Utah's most likely opponent in the conference championship game. If Utah can run the table in the regular season, it would almost certainly finish in the top 12 on Selection Day even with a loss in the Big 12 title game. Saturday's win against BYU gives Utah some margin for error down the stretch, too, but if the Utes lose at Arizona AND don't win the Big 12, it will open the door for debate.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 14 at Arizona. Utah has back-to-back road games looming, but Saturday at Arizona will likely be the last ranked opponent the Utes face.
3. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-2)
Why they could be here: Saturday's convincing win at LSU validated the committee's vote for Bama as its top two-loss team. Alabama got the win and passed the eye test on the road in one of the SEC's most unforgiving venues. The Tide also got a subtle résumé boost from South Carolina's win against Texas A&M on Saturday. The committee likes Alabama's win against the Gamecocks, who are a CFP top-25 opponent and have won four straight. Alabama also got credit in the room for its win at Mississippi State on Oct. 3, when the Bulldogs were at full strength. The committee was impressed with Alabama's résumé before it beat LSU soundly. This should only cement the Tide's place in the playoff race.
Why they could be lower: Texas earned its fourth win against a CFP top-25 opponent on Saturday at Mizzou, also giving the Longhorns their second SEC road win. The committee compares common opponents, and Texas beat Tennessee on the road, and Alabama lost to the Vols by 16 points in Knoxville. The Longhorns have a better nonconference win, against Ohio State, even though the Buckeyes earned their third loss Saturday.
Need to know: By jumping into the top four, Alabama is in first-round bye position, and has a good chance to keep it with three games remaining against unranked opponents, including Chattanooga of the FCS.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 vs. Auburn. Alabama will be favored in each of its remaining games, and the Tide will have home-field advantage for the Iron Bowl, but anything can -- and has -- happened in this rivalry game.
4. Texas Longhorns (7-2)
Why they could be here: The Longhorns own one of the best résumés of any team in the country -- regardless of record. Saturday's win at Missouri was the Longhorns' second road win this season against a ranked SEC opponent, and their fourth win against a CFP top-25 opponent. Texas also entered Week 10 ranked No. 1 in defensive efficiency. The Longhorns' opponents' winning percentage ranked No. 4 in the country (70.8%).
Why they could be lower: Texas continues to find ways to win in spite of an average offense. The Longhorns lost two fumbles and racked up seven penalties for 65 yards against Mizzou. Texas is averaging 9.45 yards per penalty (119th) and has seven fumbles and 14 total turnovers (117th).
Need to know: With a top-10 remaining schedule, it's not unreasonable for Texas to finish in the top 12 as a three-loss team, even if it doesn't play in the SEC title game. For that to happen, though, Texas would need to be ranked No. 10 or better to be in a safe spot. If Notre Dame is No. 11 or No. 12 on Selection Day, then the other team ranked in either of those spots will get bumped out for Boise State. So pay attention to where Texas is ranked Tuesday night for a clue to see how much cushion it would have with a third loss.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 14 at LSU. Two of the Longhorns' final three regular-season games are on the road, including the finale at Texas A&M, but the Tigers are the only other ranked CFP contender they'll face.
5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-1)
Why they could be here: The Irish finally earned their first statement win of the season, and it was the best win of Week 10, as Notre Dame defeated the committee's top team in Miami. Unlike last year, there shouldn't be any doubt about whether the group honors the head-to-head result. Both teams have one loss and should be voted in the same group. There will likely be selection committee members who believe Notre Dame's win against Miami isn't as impressive as it would have been had injured receiver Malachi Toney played. The committee dinged Notre Dame last week because it had only one win against a team with a .500 record or better. Now it has two, and it's 1-1 against CFP top-25 opponents.
Why they could be lower: The selection committee thought Indiana was the No. 4 team in the country in its first ranking, and Indiana didn't play Saturday. The Hoosiers don't have a win against a CFP top-25 opponent, but that didn't impact their standing in the room in the first ranking. It's possible the committee keeps the Hoosiers at No. 4.
Need to know: Regardless of how high (or low, depending on your seat) the Irish are on Tuesday night, they should feel confident in locking up a playoff spot, barring a catastrophic upset down the stretch. Notre Dame should be a heavy favorite in all three of its remaining games (Boston College, SMU and at Syracuse). As long as Notre Dame is in the top 12 on Selection Day, it's guaranteed a spot. The bigger question is if the Irish are ranked high enough that they earn a first-round bye, which is awarded to the top-four teams, or a first-round home game, which goes to teams seeded Nos. 5-8.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 21 vs. SMU. The Mustangs are the only opponent remaining with a winning record, as Boston College and Syracuse are a combined 8-10.
6. Miami Hurricanes (8-1)
Why they could be here: Without the win against the Irish, Miami's best victory was Sept. 18 at Wake Forest. The Hurricanes have four road wins against ACC teams (Stanford, Wake Forest, Clemson and North Carolina), but now lack a true statement victory. All of the teams ranked above Miami here have more impressive résumés. The Hurricanes are stuck behind Notre Dame now because of the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Why they could be lower: The committee could keep Indiana at No. 4 because the Hoosiers were on a bye, or the members could insert Indiana between Notre Dame and Miami. The Hurricanes are clearly a different team without injured star receiver Malachi Toney, as they trailed by 21 points early and never took the lead. Miami found other options -- Elija Lofton and Cooper Barkate combined for three touchdown catches -- but it was the first time Miami was held scoreless in the first quarter since the national championship game against Indiana last year.
Need to know: As devastating as the loss to Notre Dame was for Miami's chance at the top seed and a first-round bye, the Canes still have the best chance of any team in the ACC to reach the conference championship game and win it, which would lock up a CFP bid. Miami needs to avoid an upset, though, because it might not have enough on its résumé to earn a spot in the top 12 if it doesn't win the conference -- even as the ACC runner-up. Where the Canes are ranked Tuesday night will show how much margin for error they might have.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 14 vs. Duke. Miami finishes the season at home against three straight unranked ACC teams, but 7-2 Duke is Canes' quarterback Darian Mensah's former team.
7. Indiana Hoosiers (8-1)
Why they could be here: The committee was impressed by Indiana's defense, which was No. 5 in efficiency heading into the bye week. The Hoosiers don't have a win against a CFP top-25 opponent, but Yurachek said they still have a strong résumé because of six games against opponents that are .500 or better and they are 5-1 in those games. Now, though, Alabama and Texas have better combinations of eye test and résumés.
Why they could be higher: The committee believed Indiana was a top-four team in its initial ranking, and it's possible the members continue to vote that way following the Hoosiers' bye week.
Need to know: The selection committee doesn't typically move teams around during a bye week unless enough happens around them to justify it. Indiana didn't drop because it didn't play. Instead, Alabama and Texas were rewarded for what they did.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 14 vs. USC. ESPN's FPI gives the Hoosiers a 78.9% chance to beat the Trojans at home.
8. UCLA Bruins (9-0)
Why they could be here: The Bruins have four road wins against Power 4 opponents, but only Oregon and Minnesota are over .500. UCLA entered Week 10 with the No. 78 strength of schedule, which is one of the worst of the CFP contenders. Still, UCLA is undefeated and one of the top teams in the country in ESPN's strength of record metric, which has historically aligned with the committee's CFP teams. UCLA also has one of the best defenses in the country statistically, but three of its opponents (Cal, San Diego State and Nevada) are ranked No. 94 or worse by ESPN's FPI.
Why they could be higher: UCLA's win at Minnesota will be given more credit in the committee meeting room than it probably will outside of it. The Golden Gophers pushed the Hoosiers to overtime in Bloomington and earned a statement win Oct. 24 against Iowa. They've proven to be a tough out this season, and it's a second impressive road win to go with the Bruins' Oct. 10 win at Oregon. That looks even better after the Ducks beat Ohio State on Saturday in Columbus.
Need to know: The Bruins are in line to reach the Big Ten title game. If they don't win the Big Ten -- and lose multiple games along the way -- UCLA will have a tough time finishing in the top 12.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 vs. USC. The Bruins get their crosstown rivals at home. USC has looked better than Michigan, which hosts UCLA Nov. 21, especially after the Wolverines lost 15-6 at home to Michigan State on Saturday.
9. Tennessee Volunteers (7-2)
Why they could be here: The Vols moved up because Ole Miss and Ohio State suffered third losses, but also because of Saturday's statement win against Kentucky and the Oct. 17 win against Alabama. The head-to-head win against Kentucky will keep the Vols above the Wildcats, but the committee made it clear in its first ranking that it thought the gap between Alabama and Tennessee was wide enough to outweigh the Vols' 16-point win last month.
Why they could be lower: It depends on how far BYU falls after its second loss, which was a close game on the road to an in-state rival. BYU's win against Notre Dame looks even better after the Irish beat Miami on Saturday.
Need to know: Head-to-head results are one factor, but they're not the determining difference in the room -- especially if the committee doesn't deem the teams comparable. "That head-to-head matchup where South Carolina beat Tennessee is not going to come into play," Yurachek said, "just like the head-to-head matchup between Tennessee and Alabama is not going to come into play at this point because of where those teams were reviewed in the ranking process."
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 21 vs. LSU. It's the only remaining game against a ranked opponent, and the only one ESPN's FPI gives Tennessee less than a 50% chance to win.
10. Kentucky Wildcats (7-2)
Why they could be here: The Wildcats got a dose of reality against one of the SEC's better defenses Saturday in the 34-6 loss at Tennessee, but wins against South Carolina and LSU should continue to keep Kentucky in the mix. Kentucky entered Week 10 ranked No. 2 in ESPN's strength of record metric and No. 8 in strength of schedule, and that probably won't change much after facing another CFP top-25 team, even with a loss.
Why they could be lower: Kentucky lost two of the biggest games it played -- against Alabama and on Saturday at Tennessee -- and there are some committee members who questioned the Wildcats' legitimacy as a playoff contender before its second loss. Kentucky needed overtime to beat South Carolina and LSU in early October, and ranks outside the top 20 in offensive and defensive efficiencies.
Need to know: Entering Week 10, Kentucky had the second-best chance to reach the SEC title game behind Georgia, but that took a hit Saturday after the Wildcats earned their second conference loss. The Week 2 loss to Alabama will put them behind the Tide in the SEC standings, and it will make it more difficult for Kentucky to reach the CFP if it picks up a third loss and doesn't play in the conference title game.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 21 at Missouri. Kentucky has back-to-back games against CFP top-25 opponents, but the trip to Mizzou will be the highest-ranked team the Wildcats face the rest of the season.
11. Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-1)
Why they could be here: The Red Raiders could earn a promotion after multiple losses above them, but also because of two CFP top-25 wins against Houston and Arizona. Both of those teams won in Week 10 and should be ranked again Tuesday night. Though Saturday's victory against West Virginia was hardly a statement win, the committee has made it clear that it values wins against teams above .500, and the Mountaineers are now 5-4.
Why they could be lower: BYU's win against Notre Dame is better than Texas Tech's best wins in the Big 12. The committee could also deem one of the SEC's three-loss teams better than Texas Tech AND BYU, or it could reward another one-loss team such as Wake Forest. More likely, the committee will consider moving Houston and Iowa up Tuesday night.
Need to know: Texas Tech doesn't play BYU or Utah during the regular season, and with BYU's loss to the Utes on Saturday, the Red Raiders are still the most likely opponent to face Utah in the Big 12 title game.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 14 at Oklahoma State. The 6-3 Cowboys are coming off a 66-28 drubbing of Kansas State on the road. Oklahoma State quarterback Drew Mestemaker became the first FBS player with four touchdown passes, one rushing touchdown and one receiving touchdown since Virginia's Brennan Armstrong against BYU in 2021.
12. BYU Cougars (7-2)
Why they could be here: The selection committee might not punish BYU too much for losing on the road to in-state rival Utah. The Cougars' 28-24 home win against Notre Dame on Oct. 17 looks even better after the Irish beat No. 1 Miami on Saturday night.
Why they could be lower: Quarterback Bear Bachmeier threw four interceptions and the Cougars had 11 penalties for 80 yards in the loss to Utah. Some selection committee members were also stuck on BYU's double-overtime loss at UCF on Oct. 24, and without the win at Utah, BYU's best Big 12 victory is against Arizona. It helps a little that Arizona beat TCU on Friday night, albeit 29-28, but the Wildcats should still be a CFP top-25 team on Tuesday.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, BYU would be out to make room for Boise State, which is guaranteed a spot as the committee's highest-ranked Group of 6 team.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 14 vs. Baylor. ESPN's FPI gives BYU at least a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games (Baylor, Kansas and Cincinnati), but Baylor hammered UCF -- a team that BYU couldn't beat -- 41-9 in Orlando, Florida. Baylor is also coming off of back-to-back wins since firing former coach Dave Aranda.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 2 Utah (Big 12 champ)
No. 3 Alabama
No. 4 Texas
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 18 and 19
No. 12 Boise State (highest Group of 6) at No. 5 Notre Dame
No. 11 Texas Tech at No. 6 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 10 Kentucky at No. 7 Indiana (Big Ten champ)
No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 UCLA
Quarterfinal games
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 30, and Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic and Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential on Jan. 1.
No. 12 Boise State/No. 5 Notre Dame winner vs. No. 4 Texas
No. 11 Texas Tech/No. 6 Miami winner vs. No. 3 Alabama
No. 10 Kentucky/No. 7 Indiana winner vs. No. 2 Utah
No. 9 Tennessee/No. 8 UCLA winner vs. No. 1 Georgia