"Thursday Night Football" features the Atlanta Falcons visiting Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers. With Michael Penix Jr. healthy and slated to start, the Falcons get some stability at the quarterback position. Off to an 0-2 start, behind an offense that couldn't find any sense of rhythm with No. 3 QB Cooper Rush taking snaps, we finally get to see how coach Kevin Stefanski schemes for his two playmakers in the pass game -- Drake London and Kyle Pitts Sr. -- versus a Packers defense that is playing zone coverage on 70.5% of opponent dropbacks.
Now, Stefanski's call sheet will be based off the volume for running back Bijan Robinson, who is averaging 18.5 carries per game. We should see a lot of outside zone schemes (which should mirror the play-action passing game) versus a Green Bay defense allowing only 2.9 YPC (second fewest in the league) through the first two weeks.
For the Packers, quarterback Jordan Love has completed only 52.1% of his passes to start the season, but he has hit on eight explosive-play throws (20 or more yards), which ranks fifth in the league. Christian Watson is a big-play target who has scored three touchdowns through two weeks, while Matthew Golden is emerging as a go-to option. It's a committee approach in the backfield, one that lacks difference-making ability.
Betting outlook
Looking at a line that has dropped to Green Bay -4.5, I'm going to take the Packers to cover the spread (and a moneyline bet), plus I'm hitting the over at 42.5. I like Love and the Green Bay pass game against a Falcons defense that struggled in Week 2 versus the Panthers and quarterback Bryce Young (287 yards, three touchdowns). Expect more rhythm throws to the middle of the field, plus the isolation shots to Watson. And I think Green Bay can get enough out of this makeshift backfield (Kaleb Johnson flashed on tape last week) to sustain and control tempo. Plus, I'm betting on that Packers defense to win enough early-down situations to keep the Falcons' offense off schedule based on the game plan. We know Robinson will get his touches, and there will be schemed throws for Penix to hit based on Stefanski's history as a playcaller. But I don't think it's enough to cover or knock off the Packers at the home opener at Lambeau Field.
Total points UNDER 42.5 (-108)
Ben Solak: The Falcons finally get functional quarterback play with Penix healthy and stepping in, but he was not even an average starter when we last saw him and now takes snaps in a new offense and having seen no preseason action. I'm expecting plenty of rust against a solid Packers defense. On the other side of the ball, DC Jeff Ulbrich remains a quality designer of pressure packages -- something with which the Packers' young and injury-riddled O-line is likely to struggle. I see sacks, punts and field goals in this one.
Notable player props, bets
Note: Odds by DraftKings
and subject to change.
Drake London receiving yards OVER 66.5 (-112)
I think you can bet London in this one, especially if Green Bay leans on its two-deep zone shells. This is where London can find the voids on deep-in breakers. Plus, he can win perimeter matchups when the Packers roll to man coverage.
Tucker Kraft anytime TD (+185)
If you want an anytime TD scorer? I'd take a shot on Kraft. The Packers tight end has run at least 22 routes in both games played, and he can press the seams in scoring position or see the ball off play-action in the low red zone.
Kyle Pitts Sr. receiving yards OVER 34.5 (-113)
Eric Moody: Pitts has just four targets so far this season, but with Penix under center, he should see more opportunities. He cleared this line in seven of the nine games Penix started last season while averaging 5.9 targets per game.
Matthew Golden receiving yards OVER 52.5 (-114)
Moody: Golden has seen 18 targets through two games while maintaining a high route participation rate. Green Bay's offensive line is a mess right now, and the team has struggled to run the football. That could force the Packers to lean more heavily on Love and the passing game against a Falcons defense allowing the 10th-most passing yards per game.