It's possible that no club in the world has had a better last three months or so than FC Barcelona. Hansi Flick's squad enjoyed a lovely 2025-26, winning LaLiga by eight points, scoring an all-time humiliation of Newcastle (by a 7-2 margin) in the second leg of the Champions League round of 16 and really only falling short of cup goals because of Atletico Madrid (who defeated them in both the Copa del Rey and Champions League).
Since that season ended, things have only improved. Eight Barcelona players were on Spain's World Cup winning squad -- six of them played in the final -- and when one left (Ferran Torres went to PSG), they added another (Rodri came over from Manchester City). They also added speedsters Anthony Gordon (a Flick player if ever one existed) and Karim Adeyemi.
Together, Barcelona have set the world alight to start 2026-27, outscoring their first seven opponents by a combined 33-7. Attackers Raphinha and Lamine Yamal have already combined for 19 goals and seven assists in all competitions; Gordon and Adeyemi have made immediate contributions, too, with three goals and six assists between them.
Barca haven't exactly faced a murderers' row to date -- the best opponent they've faced was world No. 69 Athletic Club, so says Opta's power ratings, and they're the only ones to hold Barca to fewer than four goals -- but their early form suggests they've either reestablished or topped their best run of form from last season. In fact, they enter the season's first international break as the hottest team in Europe.
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Every so often, I check in on teams' form over the last couple of months using what I call "adjusted goal differential" -- a mix of 30% goal differential and 70% xG differential in 11 vs. 11 situations. It isn't opponent-adjusted and therefore isn't intended to be predictive: it simply tells us who's in the hottest run of form. And based on league play, selected domestic cup play* and UEFA competitions, here are the 30 hottest teams from Europe's Big Five leagues since the start of the season.
(*Because there have still been quite a few matches between first-division and much lower-division clubs in the Coppa Italia and DFB Pokal, we'll only include the England's League Cup and the countries' various super cups ... for now. And we're awarding "points" for wins in different cups and competitions for illustrative effect.)
(Note: For each team's upcoming schedule, I've italicized the matches against other teams in this top 30 list)
1. Barcelona
The season thus far: 7 matches, 21 points (3.00 PPG), +3.06 adjusted goal differential (AGD) per game
The slate through October: at Sevilla (Sept. 19), Getafe (Oct. 10), at Galatasaray (Champions League, Oct. 13), at Real Betis (Oct. 18), at PSG* (Champions League, Oct. 20), Real Madrid (Oct. 25)
Sometimes the best moves are the ones fate saves you from making. With the departure of Robert Lewandowski, the club tried hard to add Atletico Madrid's Julián Álvarez over the summer for a ridiculous transfer fee, and there's no way he would have topped Raphinha's form. And while Alvarez's brightest moments could have won them some individual matches, going the route of increasing squad depth with players like Adeyemi and Gabriel Jesus (who has two goals and two chances created in just 37 minutes) might turn out to be more beneficial, too.
Everything's coming up Barca at the moment, and that might continue to be the case until late October. Then, we'll find out just how good they are when they battle both PSG and Real Madrid within six days of each other.
2. Bayern Munich
The season thus far: 5 matches, 13 points (2.60 PPG), +2.00 AGD
The slate through October: Union Berlin (Sept. 18), at Augsburg (Oct. 10), at Viking FK (Champions League, Oct. 13), RB Leipzig (Oct. 17), Arsenal (Champions League, Oct. 21), at Freiburg (Oct. 24), Magdeburg (DFB Pokal, Oct. 28), Borussia Dortmund (Oct. 31)
PSG might have been the only team capable of preventing Bayern from their first league, cup and Champions League treble in six years last season, but that gave Bayern something to remain hungry for in 2026-27. They've begun the season as dominant as ever, outscoring their first five opponents -- including Borussia Dortmund (in the Franz Beckenbauer Supercup), Bundesliga top-four contender VfB Stuttgart and giant killer Bodø/Glimt (in the Champions League) -- by a combined 14-3. They stumbled to a 0-0 draw at Schalke on September 5, but that was an xG special: They attempted 15 shots worth 1.9 xG, but somehow none went in the net.
Harry Kane has encountered the slightest of finishing funks: He has scored two goals from shots worth 2.22 xG after going for 61 goals from 44.3 xG last year. But Michael Olise is as ruthless as ever, new addition Ismael Saibari has two assists from five chances created in just 185 minutes, and Lennart Karl has added a goal and an assist in 138 minutes.
Saibari, Karl and an improving Jamal Musiala should give Bayern even better attacking depth than they had last season, which could help to assure that Kane, Olise and Luis Díaz are in the form they need to be in when the Champions League knockouts roll around.
3. Real Madrid
The season thus far: 7 matches, 18 points (2.57 PPG), +1.91 adj. GD
The slate through October: at Atletico Madrid (Sept. 20), Villarreal (Oct. 10), at Roma (Champions League, Oct. 14), Sevilla (Oct. 18), RB Leipzig (Champions League, Oct. 21), at Barcelona (Oct. 25)
This has quickly shaped up to be one of those seasons in which only Barca and Real Madrid have much to offer in Spain. Real Betis were the only other team to win their first Champions League match of the season -- Atletico Madrid and Villarreal both faded against Liverpool and Borussia Dortmund, respectively -- and Betis incredibly have the third-best points-per-game average despite just a plus-1 goal differential. The league's two dominant forces have combined to drop two points in 12 matches.
From an entertainment standpoint, it's always more fun when someone else is along for the ride, even if it's just Atletico Madrid (who have already dropped five points in league play). Then again, maybe Jose Mourinho's return to Real Madrid has already maxed out the drama quota.
Mourinho has been mostly quiet thus far, but while Real Madrid have battled through some wobbly road performances, their home form has been indomitable. They've won four matches in the Bernebeu by a combined 14-3, and while sideline drama is eventually inevitable with Mourinho, he thus far has his team running and defending in a way Xabi Alonso certainly couldn't figure out last year. And his occasionally transition-heavy style was always going to fit well with Kylian Mbappé, who has eight goals and two assists from 12 chances created in seven matches.
4. Roma
The season thus far: 5 matches, 13 points (2.60 PPG), +1.69 adj. GD
The slate through October: Inter Milan (Sept. 19), at Como (Oct. 11), Real Madrid (Champions League, Oct. 14), Genoa (Oct. 17), Slovan Bratislava (Champions League, Oct. 20), at Napoli (Oct. 24), Cagliari (Oct. 27), at Udinese (Oct. 31)
Manager Gian Piero Gasperini deploys one of the most exciting and aesthetically pleasing styles in the sport, and his second Roma team has been nearly perfect thus far. They've beaten four Serie A opponents by a combined 12-1, and their only hiccup was a 1-1 draw at Fenerbahce in their Champions League opener. Donyell Malen has been engaged and prolific (six goals and an assist in five matches), and Paulo Dybala has been at his creative best (four goals from 18 chances created).
We'll see if they have the depth to maintain this level through their first Champions League campaign since 2018-19, but they've been the best team in Italy out of the gate.
5. Bayer Leverkusen
The season thus far: 4 matches, 7 points (1.75 PPG), +1.40 adj. GD
The slate through October: RB Leipzig (Sept. 20), at Mainz 05 (Oct. 10), at Lech Poznan (Europa League, Oct. 15), Freiburg (Oct. 17), at OFI Creta (Europa League, Oct. 22), at Hoffenheim (Oct. 24), Nürnberg (DFB Pokal, Oct. 28), VfB Stuttgart (Oct. 31)
Here's the first surprise. Leverkusen have won only once in three Bundesliga matches, suffering a 3-2 loss to newcomers Elversberg and settling for a 2-2 draw with Augsburg last weekend. But their underlying xG numbers say these were pretty unfortunate results. Elversberg and Augsburg scored their five goals from shots worth just 2.4 xG, and combined with a 4-0 trouncing of Union Berlin, Leverkusen have created far more quality chances than their opponents thus far. Over the course of the season, their point total will probably reflect that.
New left back Miguel Gutierrez is forming a nice creative partnership with 20-year-old Ibrahim Maza -- including a DFB Pokal win, the two have combined for a goal and four assists from 21 chances created thus far -- and new manager Carles Martinez is coaxing solid production from other youngsters like Christian Kofane (20) and Afonso Moreira (21).
6. Arsenal
The season thus far: 7 matches, 21 points (3.00 PPG), +1.36 adj. GD
The slate through October: at Brighton (Sept. 19), Leeds United (Oct. 10), Lille (Champions League, Oct. 13), at Nottingham Forest (Oct. 18), at Bayern Munich (Champions League, Oct. 21), Everton (Oct. 24)
Safe to say, if we adjusted these stats for opponent strength, Arsenal would shoot to No. 1. They've already played (and beaten) Manchester City in the Community Shield and Chelsea in the Premier League, and their next competitive loss will be their first since the Champions League final against PSG. (And technically, that was a draw until the shootout.) They were the best team in the world's best league last season, and they've only gotten better and deeper with the additions of veterans Bruno Guimarães and Ezri Konsa and thrilling winger Christos Tzolis, who's already created four assists from 13 chances created in 420 minutes.
As with Barcelona, they might have been saved from themselves in failing to land Real Madrid's Vinícius Júnior, who obviously would have raised their ceiling, but might have altered their defensive structure at the same time. Regardless, it's impossible to bet against them in any given match right now, just as it was for almost all of last season.
7. Inter Milan
The season thus far: 5 matches, 12 points (2.40 PPG), +1.12 adj. GD
The slate through October: at Roma (Sept. 19), Parma (Oct. 10), Club Brugge (Champions League, Oct. 13), at Bologna (Oct. 17), Shakhtar Donetsk (Champions League, Oct. 21), Fiorentina (Oct. 25), at Venezia (Oct. 28), at AC Milan (Oct. 31)
Among the Champions League teams on this list, maybe no one has a more manageable October than Inter -- they face an enormous trip to Rome this weekend, but should rack up points after the international break. Inter couldn't quite come back against Real Madrid in the Champions League, but this attack is working exactly as it should, with attackers Lautaro Martínez, Marcus Thuram and Francesco Esposito combining for 49 shots worth 7.9 xG (though they've only managed six goals) and midfielders Andy Diouf, Federico Dimarco and Nicolò Barella combining for five assists from 41 chances created.
When their finishing improves, Inter might become unstoppable in Italy.
8. Paris FC
The season thus far: 4 matches, 8 points (2.00 PPG), +1.12 adj. GD
The slate through October: Strasbourg (Sept. 19), at Lorient (Oct. 10), Rennes (Oct. 18), at Lens (Oct. 24)
What a start the other Paris club has enjoyed. They're unbeaten through four Ligue 1 matches and were unfortunate to draw with Troyes in the opener (xG: Paris 1.8, Troyes 0.4). They pummeled Nice and won at Marseille for the first time ever. New addition Lassine Sinayoko has been a game-changer in attack, and Paris are both third in Ligue 1 in xG per shot and first in xG allowed. Creating all the good shots will win you lots of matches.
9. Brentford
The season thus far: 6 matches, 12 points (2.00 PPG), +1.05 adj. GD
The slate through October: Chelsea (Sept. 18), at Aston Villa (Oct. 10), Liverpool (Oct. 17), at Hull City (Oct. 25), Nottingham Forest (Oct. 31)
Granted, they've been settling for too many draws of late to fulfill my "Brentford to the Champions League" bold prediction, but Brentford have yet to lose in any competition this season, but new defensive midfielder Mamadou Sangare has been a game-changer, and as soon as Igor Thiago remembers how to finish -- he has one goal from shots worth 3.7 xG -- the draws could turn back into wins.
10. SC Freiburg
The season thus far: 5 matches, 15 points (3.00 PPG), +1.05 adj. GD
The slate through October: at Eintracht Frankfurt (Sept. 19), Schalke 04 (Oct. 10), FK Jablonec (Conference League, Oct. 15), at Bayer Leverkusen (Oct. 17), at Monaco (Oct. 22), Bayern Munich (Oct. 24), Wolfsburg (DFB Pokal, Oct. 28), at Augsburg (Oct. 31)
Freiburg are basically Germany's Bournemouth or Brighton -- they lose young stars and keep getting better.
Including Conference League qualification and the DFB Pokal, they've begun this season a perfect 6-for-6 in the wins department despite losing up-and-comer Johan Manzambi to Aston Villa, and the new attacking partnership of Igor Matanovic (23), Derry Scherhant (23) and Yuito Suzuki (24) has combined for 10 goals and seven assists from 30 chances created. Noah Atubolu, the best young keeper in Germany, left for Eintracht Frankfurt, but Mio Backhaus (22) has allowed just four goals in seven matches and has kept two straight clean sheets.
11. Mainz
The season thus far: 3 matches, 4 points (1.33 PPG), +1.04 adj. GD
The slate through October: at Borussia Mönchengladbach (Sept. 19), Bayer Leverkusen (Oct. 10), at Schalke 04 (Oct. 17), Werder Bremen (Oct. 24), at Bochum (DFB Pokal, Oct. 27), at Elversberg (Oct. 31)
When Urs Fischer arrived at Mainz last December, they were in last place in the Bundesliga. They've been in top-half-of-the-table form since. They've been unlucky to start 2026-27, suffering both a draw (to Paderborn) and loss (to Eintracht Frankfurt) despite generating a positive xG differential in every game, but veterans Phillip Tietz (seven goals in all competitions) and Nadiem Amiri (two goals and two assists from 20 chances created) have been excellent, and you know Fischer, who brought Union Berlin to the Champions League, will always have a team that runs and defends hard.
12. Paris Saint-Germain
The season thus far: 6 matches, 8 points (1.33 PPG), +1.00 adj. GD
The slate through October: at Marseille (Sept. 20), Le Mans (Oct. 10), at Manchester City (Champions League, Oct. 14), at Strasbourg (Oct. 17), Barcelona (Champions League, Oct. 20), Lyon (Oct. 25)
Finally we get to PSG, the second French team -- nay, the second Parisien team -- on the list. We saw PSG sleepwalk through the fall months and then casually ignite to win another Champions League (and Ligue 1) title, and they're obviously capable of doing so again. But they were even sleepier to start this season, losing to Lens in the Trophée des Champions and then taking just two points from their first three Ligue 1 matches.
Granted, they had at least a slightly positive xG differential in every match, and they stomped Slovan Bratislava to start Champions League play. Luis Enrique has already started 19 different players. It's hard to actually pretend to worry about them eventually reaching championship form again, but they've given themselves some work to do -- domestically, at least.
13. Como
The season thus far: 5 matches, 13 points (2.60 PPG), +0.97 adj. GD
The slate through October: at Frosinone (Sept. 20), Roma (Oct. 11), at Feyenoord (Champions League, Oct. 14), at Fiorentina (Oct. 18), Manchester United (Champions League, Oct. 21), Sassuolo (Oct. 24), at Torino (Oct. 27)
Como may have provided the most delightful moment of Champions League Matchday 1, manhandling RB Leipzig 4-1 for their first ever win in the competition. They're also unbeaten in Serie A, getting creative contributions from pretty much the entire (young) lineup. Looking at expected goals and assists (xG+xA), nine different players are between 0.9 and 2.4 right now, and eight of them are aged 25 or younger.
There's no other way to say it: You really need to be watching Cesc Fabregas' squad.
14. Juventus
The season thus far: 4 matches, 7 points (1.75 PPG), +0.97 adj. GD
The slate through October: NEC Nijmegen (Europa League, Sept. 17), Atalanta (Sept. 20), at Cagliari (Oct. 11), at Celta de Vigo (Europa League, Oct. 15), Lazio (Oct. 18), Rennes (Europa League, Oct. 22), at Lecce (Oct. 25), at Genoa (Oct. 28)
Luciano Spalletti is working about eight newcomers into his rotation and has only Europa League play to worry about as he attempts to build Juve back into a Champions League-caliber squad. The results have been scattershot -- they drew with AC Milan and lost a wild one at Sassuolo last week -- but they've generated a positive xG differential in every match, and they're both pressing and tilting the pitch well.
Shot quality is a problem -- they're 17th in Serie A in xG per shot -- but trends are somewhere between fine and good.
15. Everton
The season thus far: 6 matches, 12 points (2.00 PPG), +0.91 adj. GD
The slate through October: Ipswich Town (Sept. 19), at Hull City (Oct. 11), Chelsea (Oct. 17), at Arsenal (Oct. 24)
Like Brentford, Everton are settling for too many draws -- three straight at the moment -- and including League Cup stats means including two wins (by a combined 5-0) over second-division teams, which got them on this list. So their spot is a bit inflated here, but they're playing at a solid mid-table level in the Premier League, and they're counterattacking with abandon.
In other words: they're a David Moyes team.
16. Brighton & Hove Albion
The season thus far: 7 matches, 14 points (2.00 PPG), +0.90 AGD
The slate through October: Arsenal (Sept. 19), at Sunderland (Oct. 10), FK Kauno Zalgiris (Conference League, Oct. 15), Crystal Palace (Oct. 18), at FK Jablonec (Conference League, Oct. 22), at Liverpool (Oct. 25), at Manchester City (Oct. 31)
It's at least a slight concern that Brighton have taken only one point against the two best teams they've faced in league play -- Chelsea (lost 4-3) and Leeds (drew 1-1), both of whom won the xG battle -- but they overcame a 2-0 deficit to win a wild League Cup match at Man United on Wednesday, and you can rack up a nice point total by beating the teams you're supposed to beat. Including Conference League qualification, Brighton have beaten four other opponents by a combined 13-0. Veteran Pascal Gross is playing as well as ever, 19-year-old defender Luka Vuskovic has been an immediate hit, and another teenager, 2025 addition Charalampos Kostoulas, is starting to contribute too.
17. Brest
The season thus far: 4 matches, 5 points (1.25 PPG), +0.83 adj. GD)
The slate through October: at AJ Auxerre (Sept. 20), Angers (Oct. 10), at Lille (Oct. 17), Nice (Oct. 23)
Almost no one in Europe has gotten xG'd harder than Brest, who have created most of the good chances in their matches (xG: Brest 9.5, opponents 4.8) but haven't turned that into many points (actual goals: 6-6). They were solid in last week's 1-0 loss to PSG, as soon as anyone besides 23-year-old star Kamory Doumbia begins to actually shoot accurately, this team could fulfill its top-four potential.
18. Manchester United
The season thus far: 6 matches, 7 points (1.17 PPG), +0.78 adj. GD
The slate through October: at Fulham (Sept. 20), Tottenham Hotspur (Oct. 10), at Atletico Madrid (Champions League, Oct. 13), at Leeds United (Oct. 18), at Como (Champions League, Oct. 21), Bournemouth (Oct. 25), at Chelsea (Oct. 31)
Like Bayer Leverkusen, United's underlying numbers are a little better than their raw results to date, thanks primarily to dominant performances against Ipswich and Sabah. They've lost to Hull and Manchester City (technically, in the latter case) and were inferior in a 2-2 draw with Everton.
Bryan Mbeumo, Matheus Cunha and Marcus Rashford have all struggled in the finishing department -- they've combined for three goals from shots worth 5.2 xG (ironic, considering United acquired Mbeumo and Cunha when they were at their highest value following overachievement in the finishing department) -- but when that form rebounds, and when Michael Carrick is able to work newcomer Carlos Baleba into the rotation, United's results should pick up quickly.
19. RB Leipzig
The season thus far: 4 matches, 6 points (1.50 PPG), +0.77 adj. GD
The slate through October: at Bayer Leverkusen (Sept. 20), Eintracht Frankfurt (Oct. 10), PSV Eindhoven (Champions League, Oct. 13), at Bayern Munich (Oct. 17), at Real Madrid (Champions League, Oct. 21), Elversberg (Oct. 21), at RW Essen (DFB Pokal, Oct. 27), at Schalke (Oct. 31)
Either it all works or it all doesn't for RB Leipzig, who have played two brilliant Bundesliga matches (they beat Borussia Mönchengladbach and Hamburg by a combined 8-0) and pummeled lower-level Eintracht Trier 6-0 in the DFB Pokal but also lost 3-1 to Werder Bremen and got thumped by Como in the Champions League. They are playing like the high-octane set of youngsters that they are. But even with inconsistency, the foursome of Antonio Nusa (21), Ezechiel Banzuzi (21), Brajan Gruda (22) and Tidiam Gomis (20) has already given them a combined six goals and seven assists from 27 chances created.
We'll see if they're up for a pretty ridiculous run of October matches.
20. Manchester City
The season thus far: 6 matches, 15 points (2.50 PPG), +0.77 adj. GD
The slate through October: Norwich City (League Cup, Sept. 17), Sunderland (Sept. 20), at Liverpool (Oct. 11), PSG (Champions League, Oct. 14), Ipswich Town (Oct. 17), AEK Athens (Champions League, Oct. 20), at Aston Villa (Oct. 24), Brighton (Oct. 31)
Finally we get to Manchester City, whose average here was hit pretty hard by a dreadful Community Shield performance against Arsenal. That 3-0 loss, followed by a poor start against Bournemouth, dragged them down, but they've been excellent ever since, coming back to beat Bournemouth late and winning all four matches since.
Erling Haaland has the customary six goals in six matches, Rayan Cherki and Antoine Semenyo have four assists from 23 chances created, and newcomers Elliot Anderson and Iliman Ndiaye have provided exactly what they've been asked for so far -- linebreaking passes from the former, duels and ball recoveries from the latter.
The rest of the top 30
21. Borussia Dortmund (+0.71)
22. Atletico Madrid (+0.66)
23. Chelsea (+0.56)
24. Bournemouth (+0.55)
25. Lazio (+0.54)
26. Leeds United (+0.46)
27. Sassuolo (+0.44)
28. Monaco (+0.42)
29. Liverpool (+0.40)
30. Sunderland (+0.36)