We're almost into the round of 32 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, and the race for the Golden Boot -- given to the tournament's top goal scorer -- is red-hot.
The main contenders are also the most obvious names: Argentina's Lionel Messi, France's Kylian Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé, Norway's Erling Haaland and England's Harry Kane.
They have enjoyed prolific starts with numerous goals in their group-stage games, but who will be the best scorer in North America this summer?
Here are the main contenders for the title, and others who might just play their way into contention.
(Note: FIFA's rules state that if two players are tied on most goals, then their assist total will be used as a decider).
Lionel Messi, Argentina
Goals: 5
Assists: 0
Games: 2
Why he will win it: This one is easy. Argentina's opening game showed all you need to see. World Cup hat tricks are not an everyday occurrence, and Messi had one against Algeria, his first in World Cup history. He added two more goals -- in doing so, he set a new all-time tournament goal record (18).
A deep run to the final, which defending champions Argentina are more than capable of, would give Messi a perfect chance to secure his first Golden Boot in this competition.
Why he won't: In truth, there are very few reasons to doubt Messi will end this tournament as the top scorer, but one stands out: Is Messi the best scorer in world football? Messi is still one of the best players on the planet, but at 39, he is no longer the best player on the planet. Kane and Mbappé both had better goals-per-minute ratios than him last season, and over the course of a long tournament, both would be potential candidates to outscore him.
Remember, Messi has never won the Golden Boot -- Mbappé's final hat trick left him one ahead in 2022. Can Messi really go on to win it during what we presume is his last dance?
Kylian Mbappé, France
Goals: 4
Assists: 2
Games: 3
Why he will win it: Alongside Kane, Mbappé is one of two players at this World Cup who have previously won the Golden Boot, and he is playing like a man inspired to defend his 2022 crown. He netted a brace in France's tournament opener against Senegal and added another couple in their next game against Iraq. Entering the round of 32, he is in a great position.
There is also an argument that France could be the highest-scoring team, should they go on a deep run. Mbappé is the focal point in a star-studded attack that also features Dembélé, Désiré Doué and Michael Olise.
Why he won't: Typically, the Golden Boot winner comes from a team that reaches the semifinals, if not the final. France are the tournament favorites, meaning that should be somewhat expected. However, there is a decent chance they face Germany in the round of 16. By no means would that be an easy game, and an early exit would scupper Mbappé's hopes.
Ousmane Dembélé, France
Goals: 4
Assists: 1
Games: 3
Why he will win it: The reigning Ballon d'Or winner certainly has what it takes to win the Golden Boot. His 32-minute hat trick against Norway in France's final group game was everything you'd need to see. Twice he scored the same goal: He picked up the ball on the right-hand side of the box, pushed it on his left and fired a superb curling effort to the far corner. France have, by quite some way, the most threatening attacking options in the competition. It seems obvious that the player with the most goals at the end of this World Cup will be French, and Dembélé has a great shout to be that man.
Why he won't: Penalties. France are yet to take a spot kick this World Cup, but Mbappé has long been his country's primary penalty taker. It might not seem a major reason for Dembélé to miss out on the Golden Boot, but the other names on this list (Messi, Mbappé, Kane, Haaland) all take the penalties for their team.
Vinícius Júnior, Brazil
Goals: 4
Assists: 1
Games: 3
Why he will win it: There is something comforting about a Brazil star winning the Golden Boot. The country has such a special affinity with the World Cup, and yet no Brazilian has won it since Ronaldo in 1998. Vinícius Júnior is the main attacking outlet for manager Carlo Ancelotti, who is one of the best coaches in the world at getting his biggest stars to perform. He has more goals since Ancelotti's arrival 12 months ago than he did in his first 39 games for Brazil, including goals in all three of his side's group games.
Why he won't: It might shock you, but Vinícius isn't actually much of a goal scorer. He had only nine goals in 49 games for Brazil entering this tournament and has never truly threatened to be LaLiga's top scorer while at Real Madrid. Winning the Golden Boot would be a surprise for Vinícius.
Erling Haaland, Norway
Goals: 4
Assists: 0
Games: 2
Why he will win it: After Norway's opening game against Iraq, in which Haaland netted twice in a 4-1 win, he was asked by reporters whether he was the best goal scorer in world soccer. "I would say I'm up there," he replied. "I don't think I scored the most goals this season, so statistically no. Harry Kane and [Kylian] Mbappé scored more goals than me and that's the reality."
Haaland was being modest. He added two more goals against Senegal, once again proving why he has a claim at being the best scorer in world soccer. As long as his side is in the World Cup, he will always have a great chance to be top of that stat pile.
"It's my specialty to score goals," Haaland told reports after the Senegal game. "I'm just really good at scoring goals."
Why he won't: Haaland, more than anyone on this list, will need his country to go on a deep run to take the award. Norway are an above-average team at this tournament -- ESPN's latest team power rankings has them at No. 11 -- but they've never made it past the first knockout game at a World Cup.
Harry Kane, England
Goals: 2
Assists: 0
Games: 2
Why he will win it: Check any scoring chart in Europe this year and there's a good chance Kane is No. 1 on it. The Bayern Munich striker's scoring form has been so good that he is firmly in the Ballon d'Or conversation. His two goals against Croatia in England's opening game got him off to a great start -- moving him onto 69 goals in 59 matches for club and country since August -- and although he and England drew a blank against Ghana, the final group game against Panama could see him pile on his goal tally. (The last time England faced Panama at a World Cup, in 2018, Kane scored a hat trick and later won the Golden Boot.)
Why he won't: There is kind of a myth around Kane that he can go missing in major tournaments, which is exceedingly harsh for a player who, against Croatia, equaled Gary Lineker's England record for most career World Cup goals (10). Remember, he is also England's all-time leading scorer (81 goals).
That said, Kane managed only three goals at Euro 2024 because of a back injury, and England boss Thomas Tuchel would be clever to rest him as much as he can in the final two group games. As ESPN's James Olley wrote ahead of the World Cup, England cannot function without Kane. Keeping him fresh should be of primary concern.
OTHER CONTENDERS:
Lamine Yamal, Spain
Yamal played just 19 minutes against Cape Verde in Spain's tournament opener amid a return from injury, and he missed his chance to get off the mark at this World Cup thanks in part to the heroics of now-viral goalkeeper Vozinha. It was only one game, though, and he made up for it by scoring 10 minutes into their next clash with Saudi Arabia. That ended up being his only goal of the group stage. It would take a spectacular scoring effort to take the title from here.
Brian Brobbey, Netherlands
Three games, three goals is a great record for Brobbey, who didn't even start the Netherlands' opening game against Japan, playing only five minutes as a substitute, but has since seemingly cemented his spot at his country's starting striker. It would be a surprise for Brobbey to end as the tournament's top scorer, but weirder things have happened.
Jonathan David, Canada
Roughly speaking, the Golden Boot can be clinched by scoring between five and eight goals. When you look at it like that, David is already halfway there. The Canada forward scored a hat trick in their second group game with Qatar, putting him at least in the conversation to be the top scorer at this World Cup. However, in an expanded 48-team tournament, the number of goals needed will likely increase.