ENGLEWOOD, Colo. -- Sometimes when Denver Broncos coach Sean Payton begins to answer a question, his mind is already on things yet to come. There have been a few moments in training camp when he has mentioned the work to be done by quarterback Bo Nix in his "fourth year."
Payton certainly knows Nix is actually in his third NFL season, but the accidental bobble fits since folks have been in a hurry to assess the 26-year-old quarterback from the moment the Broncos selected him with the No. 12 pick of the 2024 draft.
Nix has been on the fast track since arriving in Denver. He was named the team's starter during his first NFL preseason and immediately found himself with the immense expectations that come from quarterbacking a franchise that has won three Super Bowls and been led by the likes of Hall of Famers John Elway and Peyton Manning.
And as Payton has often said about Nix, "I'm glad he's on our team. ... I like where he's headed."
But the clock is ticking for Nix and the Broncos, who have a 25-11 record (including postseason) in two seasons with him as the starter. They enter the third season of Nix's financially friendly rookie contract on a quest to win the franchise its fourth Super Bowl title. But that's not all that's on the line.
The Broncos need to decide whether Nix is truly Denver's next franchise quarterback -- and if he's worthy of a big-money, long-term contract that will significantly alter the team's roster and salary cap situation. They have to juggle Nix's ability to win games and play at his highest level in the clutch with a growing list of ankle injuries and some red-flag moments in his play.
For his part, Nix has remained calm, focused and quietly driven to make a giant step in where he wants his career to go this season.
"Year 1, I'm trying to just not mess up for the team," Nix said. "I feel like Year 3, I'm trying to make plays for the team. It's just quite the different feeling. It's just a confidence-level thing."
THE BRONCOS HAVE won 69.4% of their games with Nix as their starting quarterback. They have made playoff trips in his two seasons as a starter (after missing the postseason the previous eight seasons) and are the defending AFC West champions. And the Broncos went 14-3 last season, including an NFL-record 12 comeback wins and an 11-2 record in one-score games.
Yes, the defense is elite. But Nix has done his part. He is only the third quarterback in league history to throw for at least 3,500 passing yards and 25 touchdown passes in his first two seasons (Manning and the Los Angeles Chargers' Justin Herbert are the others). Nix has the most team wins, passing touchdowns, rushing touchdowns and total touchdowns among the six first-round quarterbacks selected in 2024, besting the likes of Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels. His QBR in the red zone last season also was fourth best in the league (82.6), and he led the NFL in winning drives (seven).
He also embodies one of Payton's foundational principles in quarterback play: don't take sacks. Though Nix led the league in pass attempts (612) and dropbacks (667) last season, he was sacked the ninth-fewest times among the league's starters. And much of his late-game success is derived from his ability to move out of trouble and get a play to what Payton calls "the second act."
"It's one of his superpowers," Payton said. "It's hard to sack some quarterbacks; he's one of them. That was something you saw on college tape. In our league when you take a sack, you just do the analytics on what your points become in that drive ... and it all drops dramatically."
His ability to extend plays, his leadership style, day-to-day demeanor and overall approach to the job are among the first things his teammates list when asked why they believe Nix is "The Guy."
"Bo just walks in the room like he's ready for anything," running back J.K. Dobbins said. "And he is. He ain't trying to walk like that, you know what I mean? That's just that thing about him. You're never going to feel you're out of it with Bo. People can say whatever they want about Bo, about this and that, but Bo's our guy. We all know it."
How the Broncos built their roster shows how much their decision-makers agree with Dobbins. Since Nix was drafted, the Broncos have spent more than $300 million in guaranteed-at-signing money to secure standouts such as defensive tackle Zach Allen, guard Quinn Meinerz, edge rusher Nik Bonitto, wide receiver Courtland Sutton, cornerback Pat Surtain II and offensive tackle Garett Bolles to long-term extensions. They're returning 20 of 22 offensive and defensive starters from last season's AFC Championship Game, and they re-signed 17 of 21 players who were scheduled to be unrestricted, restricted or exclusive rights free agents. And when their internal reviews revealed a need in their passing game, they sent first-, third- and fourth-round picks to the Miami Dolphins in March to acquire wide receiver Jaylen Waddle.
All of these moves were made to build the kind of depth chart around Nix "that can help a quarterback develop," as Payton has said.
"The 'next step' is kind of cliché," the coach added when asked of Nix's progression. "He just finished winning 14 games and having a really good season. Do I think he's going to continue to improve? ... I think there are certain areas for us offensively that can help with the quarterback, a consistent run game throughout the year. There are some things that we can do to help him."
THE BRONCOS SPENT what first-year offensive coordinator Davis Webb called "some long hours in the offseason" going through each Nix game of the past two seasons to evaluate what he has done well as a starter and the areas where progress needs to be made.
Though Payton has consistently praised his QB's decision-making, processing and ability to avoid sacks and turnovers, Nix hasn't been particularly accurate, especially on downfield throws. He also resides near the middle of the pack among the league's starting quarterbacks in explosive pass plays.
"We were really trying to evaluate ... the last two years, how his first read on plays marries up the second read, depth-wise, playcall-wise, where we are at that point in the game,'' Webb said. "... It's noticeable the strides he's making, hanging on [the first read], getting to two, to three."
Nix was 26th in the league in completion percentage over expectation (minus-2.1%) last season, per NFL Next Gen Stats, and he was 12th in the league in completions of 20 or more yards (47 -- 25 behind league-leader Matthew Stafford's 72). Nix also completed 44.1% of his pass attempts of 10 or more air yards, along with 36.1% of attempts for 20 or more air yards.
Defensive coaches in the league have found other areas to exploit. Some who have faced Nix over the past two years say they want to present looks that force him to look toward the middle of the field, an area he hasn't shown comfort attacking.
When his 2026 pass chart is fully separated into sections of the field, his lowest attempt totals come between the hashmarks (40 attempts). His highest volume comes outside the numbers (234 attempts).
"We'll do that a lot in the spring self-scout," Payton said. "Then we'll look at -- 'All right, what are the things that maybe we need to be better at?' But yes, we'll look at hit charts, we'll look at the analytics."
There are also questions about Nix's long-term health. He has shown exceptional durability so far, given that he started a then-record 61 college games in five seasons at Auburn and Oregon. He has sat out only one game as an NFL starter -- last season's AFC Championship Game.
So by any definition, Nix has been reliable. But the fractured right ankle sustained in the Broncos' divisional round win over the Buffalo Bills means Nix has sustained ankle fractures in high school, college and the NFL. He has had three ankle surgeries in his two seasons with the Broncos, including a follow-up surgery in April to address bone spurs in the surgically repaired right ankle that Nix says he believes will head off future troubles.
The ankle issues will at least be part of what the Broncos would consider when it's time for contract negotiations. But right tackle Mike McGlinchey spoke for most of his teammates when the barrage of questions about Nix's health were posed this summer.
"I think Bo's healthy, ready to go," McGlinchey said. "He was here with us, there was a group of us that live here full time [in the offseason] that train here full time. I saw him every step of the way. He was checking all his boxes, he was attacking his rehab hard like he attacks everything."
WHILE THE NFL salary cap continues to climb (it's currently at $301.2 million), the top 12 highest-paid quarterbacks have contracts that average $51 million per year or more, with the Kansas City Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes and Dallas Cowboys' Dak Prescott on deals that average more than $60 million per year. In a stark contract, Nix's $5.076 million cap charge in 2026 is the 19th-highest on the Broncos. But that is on the verge of changing.
Nix is in the third year of his four-year rookie deal, and the Broncos hold a fifth-year option in 2028. So, his salary is bound to mushroom ... if Denver puts the checkbook behind its current belief that he is the franchise's long-term quarterback.
"Obviously we want Bo here long term, but we're really focused on getting ready for this season, putting a competitive team on the field," Broncos owner/CEO Greg Penner said Tuesday. "I'll leave that, obviously, to [general manager] George [Paton] and Sean."
An informal survey with several general managers and pro personnel executives revealed a couple of potential options with how the Broncos and Nix could move forward:
Nix has a big season and guides the Broncos to playoff success. In that scenario, the Broncos, even after engaging the fifth-year option next spring, would try to negotiate what would be a big contract with Nix and his representatives. As the market value continues to balloon for QBs, a new deal probably would net Nix well over $100 million worth of fully guaranteed money (there are 11 quarterbacks who top $100 million in fully guaranteed money) and an average salary of more than $50 million.
Nix's play levels out, and the Broncos fall short of expectations. In this scenario, the Broncos might be more inclined to pick up the fifth-year option but let Nix play out Year 4 of his deal in 2027, entering negotiations on an extension after that season concludes.
How the Broncos proceed with Nix will affect their dealings with other players. The Broncos will face decisions next March on a long list of impending free agents, led by cornerbacks Riley Moss and Ja'Quan McMillian, safety Brandon Jones, guard Ben Powers and wide receiver/kick returner Marvin Mims Jr.
For his part, Nix tries not to think about all that, preferring to keep his focus in the moment and not stray from the be-where-your-feet-are approach.
"I think competitively, the way we are as players, you better treat every year as a year you have to prove," Nix said earlier in training camp. "You have to go out there and show the team that you're worth what you're putting in for you and what they're building around you. You can't ever let up and think that, 'I've made it. I've gotten to where I need to be,' because quite honestly, I'll never feel that way.
"There's always the next season. There's always the next championship to go after. I think every year for every player is going to feel like a contract year because it should."
But make no mistake: Since Nix was drafted, the Broncos have said -- from Penner on down -- that they believe he is their next franchise cornerstone quarterback. And as the championship clock ticks, Nix hopes to further prove that he is that player.
"I think that question sort of answers itself," Nix said earlier this offseason when asked if he hoped the Broncos eventually make the long-term commitment to him. "I think everyone that's in the league wants that long-term extension and wants to play for their home team. For me, I love being here. I love where I'm at. I love this team. I'll play as long as they want to have me."