In many ways, this seems like the easiest ESPN NFL Survivor week of the year thus far. The two worst teams in the NFL on paper are on the road against quality teams. The 0-3 Tennessee Titans visit the 2-1 Baltimore Ravens, while the winless Miami Dolphins face the undefeated Minnesota Vikings.
The only problem? Both of those teams are on pace to be at least 30% selected on ESPN, meaning there is significant value in fading them in the event they lose this week.
However, the only other teams favored by at least four points this week are the Buffalo Bills and Seattle Seahawks, two of the top five Super Bowl favorites, both of whom have significant future value while having lower win probability this week. Plus, as bad as their opponents have looked this season, it's hard to see the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Chargers struggling this much the rest of the season.
Objectively, the Vikings are the best play when you combine win equity and future value. While the Vikings have some usable games down the road, hosting the Indianapolis Colts, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers and Washington Commanders, home games against the Dolphins are the most valuable to target in Survivor.
As of Wednesday morning, the Vikings are on pace to have lower selection than the Ravens on ESPN, making them the clear top pick this week in single-entry groups on ESPN. However, in higher-stakes pools, I expect the Vikings to be significantly more popular, making the decision more difficult.
If you want to avoid the chalk, the Seahawks are a strong consideration. They are on track to be less than 5% selected, and while they are projected to be favored in 11 of their last 14 games, the only obvious weeks to use them are Week 9 (vs. Arizona Cardinals) and Week 14 (vs. New York Giants).
If your primary goal is to not burn an elite team, the New Orleans Saints could fit the bill as home favorites against the Falcons. However, the Saints have the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL, according to ESPN Analytics, so if they are good enough to use this week, they will be similar-sized favorites down the road.
As a result, I will eat the chalk again this week and take the Vikings as my top pick in ESPN Survivor. If I have multiple entries, I will strongly consider mixing in the Ravens and Seahawks, and perhaps even the Packers and Bills. But in an 18-week season, there is plenty of time to get unique later in the year.
Note: Odds by DraftKings and subject to change. Future value based on Mike Clay's cheat sheet.
1. Minnesota Vikings (vs. Dolphins)
The Vikings are the best combination of win equity and lack of future value. The Dolphins grade as the worst team in the NFL according to ESPN Analytics, so every time they are on the road, their opponent is a strong consideration. If the Vikings start to trend toward being 50% selected, I will strongly consider pivoting to the Ravens or Seahawks, but at under 40%, they are the top pick this week on ESPN.
Chance to win: 83% (ESPN Analytics), 93% (Mike Clay)
Spread: Vikings -10.5 (-650 moneyline)
Future value: 16th
Availability: 98%
ESPN Selection: 32%
2. Seattle Seahawks (vs. Chargers)
The choice between the Ravens and Seahawks comes purely down to selection. The Ravens are the bigger favorites in Week 4, but they are almost 10 times more selected as of Wednesday morning. If that remains the case Sunday, it's hard to justify picking Baltimore over Seattle, even with the additional win equity. The Seahawks and Ravens have similar value down the road, so there is minimal difference in future value between the two teams. It's simply a question of ownership vs win probability. In sharper groups where the Ravens' selection is significantly lower than 37%, I prefer Baltimore. But as of Wednesday, I will lean toward pivoting to Seattle.
Chance to win: 74% (ESPN Analytics), 87% (Mike Clay)
Spread: Seahawks -7 (-355 moneyline)
Future value: Seventh
Availability: 91%
ESPN Selection: 4%
3. Baltimore Ravens (vs. Titans)
As mentioned above, picking the Ravens comes down to how high they're selected. If they are 37% selected, they are probably a bad pick. If it's closer to half of that, which I expect in higher-stakes groups, then the Ravens are a much stronger play. While the Ravens and Seahawks have similar future value, this is the easiest game the Ravens have all season on paper, so using them now makes sense. Plus, as good as the Ravens are, so much of their future value depends on the health of Lamar Jackson, so I am a little more willing to use them early.
Chance to win: 84% (ESPN Analytics), 91% (Mike Clay)
Spread: Ravens -11.5 (-750 moneyline)
Future value: Sixth
Availability: 95%
ESPN Selection: 37%
4. Green Bay Packers (at Buccaneers)
This is purely a pick for large pools that expect to last all 18 weeks. The betting market has the Packers as the largest favorites among teams with minimal future value, and nobody wants to pick them after their performances over the first three weeks. This is a risky pick, but with the Buccaneers starting an undrafted rookie QB, this could be a way to burn a team that has only one game the rest of the season you feel comfortable using them (Week 15 vs. Dolphins). And while that Dolphins game looks easy on paper, the Packers will likely be over 50% selected that week due to their difficult schedule leading into that game, so forcing yourself off that chalk might be valuable.
Chance to win: 67% (ESPN Analytics), 45% (Mike Clay)
Spread: Packers -3.5 (-192 moneyline)
Future value: 13th
Availability: 91%
ESPN Selection: 1%
5. Buffalo Bills (vs. Patriots)
The Bills are similar to the Seahawks in that they are touchdown favorites with low selection. In fact, my model has the Bills with slightly less value than Seattle, mostly because two of their three easiest games on paper occur in Weeks 17 and 18, but there is so much time for the landscape to change. However, as bad as the Patriots have looked through three weeks, it's still a division game against the reigning AFC champions -- who beat the Bills in Buffalo last season. So as appealing as this looks, I lean towards saving the Bills for later.
Chance to win: 70% (ESPN Analytics), 74% (Mike Clay)
Spread: Bills -7 (-285 moneyline)
Future value: Eighth
Availability: 85%
ESPN Selection: 5%