If the 2026 NFL season is reiterating any key lesson, it's this: Anything goes.
The Las Vegas Raiders, 150-1 (0.66% implied odds) to win the Super Bowl at the onset of the season, are 3-0 with an 11.3-point average victory margin. Conversely, the Houston Texans, 18-1 (5.3%) entering Week 1, have dropped three in a row with their vaunted defense having surrendered the 14th-most points (25.0 per game).
In fantasy football, Brock Purdy, a 10th-round pick on average during the preseason, is the No. 4 overall scorer, averaging only 4.3 fewer fantasy points per game than Josh Allen. Meanwhile, Omarion Hampton, a popular breakout pick and the No. 15 overall player in terms of ADP, has averaged 10.5 points to place outside the top 20 in scoring among running backs.
That "any given Sunday" aspect to the NFL, and fantasy football, certainly took hold in Knockout leagues in Week 3. After each of the first two weeks saw three players reside on at least 15% of teams knocked out, not one reached that threshold this past weekend. This was also the first week in which a player exceeded 10 fantasy points yet appeared on a knocked out team in 10% or more of leagues, both of them quarterbacks: Allen (17.46 points, 10.4% knocked out) and Jalen Hurts (12.62, 10.1%).
Poor quarterback play continues to influence Knockout results. Besides Allen's and Hurts' performances, Drake Maye, who has yet to score as many as 10 fantasy points in a game, is one of four players (A.J. Brown, Kenny Gainwell and Kyle Pitts Sr. are the others) to place on at least 8% of teams knocked out in the first three weeks. Justin Herbert has averaged 11.3 fantasy points and ranks 26th in total points scored at the position, getting his teams bumped from Knockout play in 9.2% of leagues in Week 2 and 7.2% this past week. Injuries to Jayden Daniels (10.6%), Caleb Williams (8.0%) and Baker Mayfield (5.9%) also proved costly to Knockout managers this week.
Quarterback strategy can prove critical in Knockout play, and with this being the first week in which we've seen a multi-year star make it to free agency, investment time at the position might be here (or certainly arriving if you're not in a league where one of those prominent names is available for the taking). Let's dive right in.
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The 20 most-knocked-out players exiting Week 3
Note that FAB recommendations are in three tiers: "% OF FAB TO BID (ENFORCE)" is a low-end recommendation, if you don't necessarily need the player but don't want him gifted to the competition. "% OF FAB TO BID (MEDIAN)" is the recommended bid for a team with average needs at that position. "% OF FAB TO BID (AGGRESSIVE)" is advised for teams thin at that specific spot.
My favorite pickup of the week
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills (10.4% Knocked out, 13th overall, QB3): Let's get right to Allen, fantasy football's No. 1 quarterback in 2020, 2021, 2023, 2025 and through the first three weeks of this season, but a disappointing Week 3 performer with two interceptions and only 17.46 fantasy points. (On an aside, are our expectations from Allen so lofty that 17.46 points is considered a bad week from him?) Allen's turnovers are hardly of concern -- he has had a handful of similarly error-prone games over the years -- while his schedule raises a mild question. He gets the New England Patriots (home) and Los Angeles Rams (road) the next two weeks, and his bye arrives in Week 7. Investing in Allen is wise, but it demands both a well-rounded lineup and a strong partner quarterback for that approaching bye. Recommended bid: 18-33% of your full-season FAB budget.
Otherwise, this was not a big week for top-tier talent getting teams knocked out. The preseason top-10 picks averaged 21.9 fantasy points -- and that's including crediting absent Puka Nacua with a zero -- and only Nacua (10.2%), Jonathan Taylor (7.4%) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (6.6%) resided on knocked-out teams in at least 5% of leagues. Nevertheless, if any star-caliber talent snuck through in your league, a bid between 25% (price enforcing) and 43% is warranted.
Go get 'em
Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles (10.1% Knocked out, 16th overall, QB4): He belongs here every bit as much as he might in either the above or below groups. Hurts is a viable all-in quarterback, as one of the highest-floor performers due to his goal-line prowess (thank you, tush push), but he also comes with short-term worries, specifically his brutal Week 4 matchup against the Rams after putting forth a lackluster Week 3 "Monday Night Football" performance facing a much softer Chicago Bears defense. As with Allen, going all-in for Hurts probably means having a better quarterback to start this coming weekend, but it's a worthy investment to make considering what's ahead for the Eagles quarterback. Hurts' bye arrives in Week 10, sandwiched by some highly appealing matchups (CAR, DAL, @WSH, NYG, bye, PIT, @DAL, @ARI, IND, from Weeks 6-14). Recommended bid: 14-28%.
Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings (13.1% Knocked out, 3rd overall, WR2): Another case of an early injury putting Knockout teams in a hole, Jefferson's prognosis at least offers him a chance of playing in Week 4 against the Miami Dolphins. Expect -- and bid accordingly -- a wide range of FAB results for him, but keep this in mind: Jefferson has a 39% target share when on the field this season and is being targeted on one-third of his routes. You'll rarely find that level of receiving usage out there via free agency. Recommended bid: 16-34%.
Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Carolina Panthers: (10.6% Knocked out, 10th overall, WR4): His 3.7 fantasy point Week 3 stinker was almost entirely a product of the opposing Cleveland Browns prioritizing him in their defensive game plan; CB Denzel Ward gave him fits all game. Even with it, McMillan is still tops on the Panthers with a 22% target share, and he might see a slew of them in Week 4 against the Detroit Lions if Jalen Coker (quadriceps) can't play. McMillan is a sneaky upper-tier pickup, with the primary negative in Knockout leagues being a Week 5 bye. Recommended bid: 9-23%.
Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals (9.2% Knocked out, 21st overall, RB5): He came available in the Fantasy Focus Knockout league exiting Week 2 and fetched a 42.4%-of-budget winning FAB bid, demonstrative of his high-level potential for the format. Brown's 8.9 fantasy point Week 3 notwithstanding, he's one of only three running backs with at least 12 carries in every one of his team's games since Week 11 of last season (Bijan Robinson, Jonathan Taylor), and he plays for one of the league's most potent offenses. Recommended bid: 13-29%.
Worthy, with worries
Omarion Hampton, RB, Los Angeles Chargers (12.6% Knocked out, fifth overall, RB2): Mike McDaniel's offense is off to an inauspicious start, and Hampton's fantasy production has suffered accordingly. Of concern were Hampton's 42% snap and 54% rushing shares and 5.6 fantasy points relative to Keaton Mitchell's 36%, 29% and 13.7, in Week 3. I still regard Hampton as their full-year-go-to guy, especially taking Mitchell's injury history into account. Consider this recommendation more of a long-game play. Recommended bid: 10-26%.
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Denver Broncos (10.6% Knocked out, 12th overall, WR5): He sandwiched a signature, 10-target, 21.8-fantasy point Week 2 with a pair of stinkers, but neither was an especially favorable matchup (@KC Week 1, DEN Week 3). Waddle's 23% target share underscores his top-dog receiver status, but he's more of a WR2/3 for Knockout play, largely because of Courtland Sutton's red-zone track record. Recommended bid: 10-25%.
Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders (10.6% Knocked out, 11th overall, QB2): A sneaky pickup, even if his injury history makes him ill-suited generally for Knockout play, Daniels has an outside chance (albeit a long one) of playing in London in Week 4. He's a player worth at least a price-enforcing bid, especially if you can maneuver your roster in a way to stash him in your IL spot while he heals. Recommended bid: 4-10%.
No thanks
Kyle Pitts Sr., TE, Atlanta Falcons (12.1% Knocked out, seventh overall, TE1): This marks three consecutive weeks in which he resided on knocked-out teams in at least 12% of leagues, joining A.J. Brown as the only players who can claim that. Pitts, a classic risk/reward player, is again proving himself a shaky Knockout pick, and his 9% target share in Michael Penix Jr.'s return to action was an ominous sign at best. Recommended bid: 2-5%.
Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots (12.9% Knocked out, fourth overall, QB1): Perhaps no player has been more disappointing through three weeks, and Maye has a tough assignment yet again for Week 4 at Buffalo. I'm only looking to him as a potential matchups play for a favorable Weeks 5-10 stretch (LV, NYJ, @CHI, @MIA, GB), but it'd be with a modest bid in the hopes he'll be right back here in this space a week from now. Recommended bid: 5-11%.