Expected fantasy points (xFP) strips away player talent and efficiency and focuses solely on opportunity.
FORP -- fantasy points over replacement player -- is the difference between a player's actual fantasy point total (FF points) and his xFP (or expected total).
Wide receiver adjustments are made as follows:
Rushing attempts: No change
Rushing yardage: Rush attempts multiplied by a rusher's expected yardage based on position and rush direction
Rushing touchdowns: Rushing xTD
Targets: No change
Receptions: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected catch rate based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving yardage: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected yardage based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving touchdowns: Receiving xTD
Two-point conversions: xTD multiplied by the league average 2-point rate
Fumbles lost: Touches multiplied by the league average rate
Return touchdowns: Excluded due to extreme rareness and randomness
Below is the 2026 xFP leaderboard for wide receivers:
2026 xFP & xTD leaderboards 2026 xFP: Wide receivers (incl. adjusted stats) Rk. Player xFP Actual FORP G Rec Yds TD 1. CeeDee Lamb , DAL 151 156 4 7 51 642 6 2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba , SEA 138 196 58 7 46 635 4 3. Matthew Golden , GB 135 111 -24 7 38 623 6 4. Amon-Ra St. Brown , DET 122 128 6 6 43 528 4 5. Malik Nabers , NYG 122 121 -1 7 44 578 3 6. Chris Olave , NO 121 125 4 7 44 603 3 7. Michael Wilson , ARI 118 82 -36 7 36 519 5 8. Puka Nacua , LAR 109 114 5 5 40 469 2 9. Christian Watson , GB 103 130 27 7 31 506 3 10. Tetairoa McMillan , CAR 99 97 -1 6 32 450 4 11. Drake London , ATL 98 108 10 7 39 453 2 12. DK Metcalf , PIT 97 77 -21 7 34 493 2 13. George Pickens , DAL 97 98 0 7 33 462 3 14. Davante Adams , LAR 90 102 12 6 26 456 3 15. Emeka Egbuka , TB 87 71 -16 6 31 384 3 16. Parker Washington , JAC 87 92 5 6 25 404 4 17. Luther Burden III , CHI 86 97 11 7 30 355 2 18. Zay Flowers , BAL 86 122 37 6 38 408 1 19. Carnell Tate , TEN 85 77 -8 7 32 426 2 20. Tre Tucker , LV 84 100 16 7 28 418 2 21. Tee Higgins , CIN 84 102 19 6 30 462 1 22. Devaughn Vele , NO 82 86 4 7 30 361 3 23. Ja'Marr Chase , CIN 82 97 15 6 30 340 3 24. Garrett Wilson , NYJ 79 99 20 7 30 392 2 25. Denzel Boston , CLE 79 77 -2 7 22 390 3 26. Xavier Hutchinson , HOU 75 54 -21 7 23 353 2 27. KC Concepcion , CLE 75 63 -12 7 32 328 1 28. Jameson Williams , DET 74 84 9 6 21 353 3 29. Josh Downs , IND 74 57 -16 7 27 367 1 30. Jaylen Waddle , DEN 72 64 -9 7 29 348 1 31. Rome Odunze , CHI 72 60 -11 7 23 351 2 32. Mike Evans , SF 70 89 19 6 19 363 3 33. Malik Washington , MIA 70 57 -13 6 25 312 1 34. Jalen Coker , CAR 70 70 0 5 25 334 2 35. Wan'Dale Robinson , TEN 69 62 -7 7 31 281 2 36. DeVonta Smith , PHI 68 69 1 4 23 334 2 37. Keenan Allen , IND 67 61 -7 6 26 316 2 38. Ryan Flournoy , DAL 66 63 -3 7 26 281 2 39. Courtland Sutton , DEN 65 39 -27 7 19 277 3 40. DeMario Douglas , NE 65 65 -1 7 23 286 2 41. Stefon Diggs , WAS 65 69 4 5 25 284 2 42. Nico Collins , HOU 62 76 14 5 16 302 2 43. Xavier Worthy , KC 59 52 -7 6 25 272 1 44. Jakobi Meyers , JAC 57 61 3 6 17 239 3 45. Kendrick Bourne , ARI 56 48 -8 7 26 254 1 46. Germie Bernard , PIT 56 59 3 7 26 254 1 47. Justin Jefferson , MIN 54 72 18 5 20 253 1 48. Makai Lemon , PHI 54 50 -4 7 26 245 1 49. Chris Godwin Jr. , TB 54 53 -1 7 27 228 0 50. Khalil Shakir , BUF 54 55 1 6 23 220 1 51. Malachi Fields , NYG 53 47 -6 7 17 266 2 52. Rashid Shaheed , SEA 51 42 -9 7 18 250 1 53. Kalif Raymond , CHI 51 56 5 7 24 221 1 54. Dontayvion Wicks , PHI 51 53 3 6 17 260 1 55. Jahan Dotson , ATL 50 48 -2 7 14 256 2 56. Romeo Doubs , NE 50 58 8 6 13 233 2 57. Rashod Bateman , BAL 49 51 2 7 17 234 1 58. Terry McLaurin , WAS 48 46 -2 5 15 233 2 59. Laquon Treadwell , IND 48 35 -14 7 17 234 1 60. Keon Coleman , BUF 46 65 19 6 14 212 2 61. Elic Ayomanor , TEN 45 34 -12 7 12 182 3 62. Deebo Samuel Sr. , SF 45 60 15 5 17 122 2 63. Ted Hurst , TB 45 34 -11 7 11 226 2 64. Antonio Williams , WAS 45 45 0 6 16 226 1 65. Roman Wilson , PIT 44 45 1 5 14 229 1 66. Jaylin Noel , HOU 44 67 23 7 15 189 1 67. Isaac TeSlaa , DET 42 30 -12 6 12 179 2 68. Cooper Kupp , SEA 41 44 2 7 16 195 1 69. Jordan Addison , MIN 41 38 -3 5 14 214 1 70. Darnell Mooney , NYG 41 24 -17 7 14 205 1 71. Marvin Harrison Jr. , ARI 23 20 -3 4 5 117 1 71. Marvin Harrison Jr. , HOU 17 14 -3 2 4 86 1 72. Tre Harris , LAC 40 38 -2 5 16 209 1 73. Kayshon Boutte , HOU 39 34 -5 7 12 214 1 74. Bryce Lance , NO 38 23 -15 7 14 181 1 75. Cody White , LV 37 39 2 7 10 144 2 76. Brian Thomas Jr. , JAC 37 26 -11 6 11 170 2 77. Mack Hollins , NE 36 36 -1 4 12 178 1 78. Darius Cooper , PHI 36 49 12 7 11 143 2 79. Jalen Nailor , LV 36 16 -20 6 11 172 1 80. Treylon Burks , WAS 36 36 1 5 9 164 2 81. Jerry Jeudy , CLE 35 33 -2 7 16 183 0 82. Quentin Johnston , LAC 35 25 -10 5 11 189 1 83. DJ Moore , BUF 35 36 1 4 12 176 1 84. Ladd McConkey , LAC 35 39 4 5 12 164 1 85. A.J. Brown , NE 35 19 -16 3 12 173 1 86. Tez Johnson , TB 35 35 0 7 9 150 1 87. Jalen Brooks , ARI 33 13 -20 7 7 151 2 88. Tyquan Thornton , KC 32 45 13 4 8 156 1 89. Dohnte Meyers , CIN 31 28 -3 6 14 124 1 90. Kevin Coleman Jr. , MIA 30 15 -16 6 7 153 1 91. Dyami Brown , WAS 30 16 -14 6 8 153 1 92. Konata Mumpfield , LAR 29 29 0 7 10 174 0 93. Adonai Mitchell , NYJ 28 21 -7 3 10 140 1 94. Isaiah Williams , NYJ 28 34 6 7 10 130 0 95. Efton Chism III , NE 27 28 1 6 8 115 1 96. John Metchie III , CAR 27 25 -2 5 10 129 1 97. Chris Bell , MIA 27 22 -5 6 9 158 0 98. Rashee Rice , KC 26 38 12 4 13 115 0 99. Skyy Moore , GB 26 11 -15 5 10 100 1 100. Ja'Kobi Lane , BAL 25 16 -10 3 8 105 1 101. Omar Cooper Jr. , NYJ 24 49 24 3 9 111 1 102. Caleb Douglas , MIA 24 39 16 3 9 114 1 103. Joshua Palmer , BUF 23 28 5 5 6 132 1 104. Kyle Williams , NE 22 27 4 7 6 114 1 105. Jared Wayne , HOU 21 11 -11 5 6 118 1 105. Jared Wayne , MIA 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 106. Josh Cameron , JAC 21 32 10 6 7 79 1 107. Pat Bryant , DEN 21 32 11 4 9 84 0 108. Jalen Royals , KC 19 15 -4 6 6 76 1 109. Brycen Tremayne , CAR 19 18 -1 6 6 93 1 110. Bo Melton , GB 19 8 -10 7 7 93 0 111. Marvin Mims Jr. , DEN 18 14 -5 5 8 78 0 112. Zachariah Branch , ATL 18 15 -3 7 9 73 0 113. Malik Benson , LV 18 2 -16 7 5 87 1 114. Michael Pittman Jr. , PIT 18 16 -2 3 7 97 0 115. Tory Horton , SEA 17 18 0 6 6 81 1 116. Calvin Ridley , TEN 17 13 -4 6 7 76 0 117. Olamide Zaccheaus , ATL 17 6 -11 6 8 79 0 118. Jordan Watkins , SF 17 20 3 5 5 93 0 119. Isaiah Bond , CLE 16 14 -3 7 7 76 0 120. Troy Franklin , DEN 16 12 -4 7 4 80 1 121. Brandin Cooks , SF 16 12 -4 4 4 69 1 122. Deion Burks , IND 16 12 -4 7 3 78 0 123. Devontez Walker , BAL 16 18 1 6 3 93 1 124. Jacob Cowing , SF 15 8 -7 7 5 80 0 125. Mitchell Tinsley , CIN 15 10 -5 3 4 65 1 126. Jonathan Mingo , DAL 14 6 -8 7 4 72 1 127. Chris Moore , BAL 14 15 1 4 2 79 1 128. Savion Williams , GB 14 16 2 2 5 57 0 129. Demarcus Robinson , SF 14 19 5 2 4 54 1 130. Jauan Jennings , MIN 14 8 -6 5 4 67 1 131. KaVontae Turpin , DAL 14 13 -1 6 5 48 0 132. KeAndre Lambert-Smith , LAC 13 6 -7 2 6 66 0 133. Alec Pierce , IND 13 12 -1 2 4 75 0 134. Jayden Reed , GB 12 6 -6 2 6 54 0 135. Myles Price , MIN 12 12 0 6 7 41 0 136. Tai Felton , MIN 11 7 -4 6 5 51 0 137. Chimere Dike , TEN 10 7 -3 7 5 46 0 138. Jack Bech , LV 10 16 6 3 4 48 0 139. Ashton Dulin , IND 10 6 -4 3 5 45 0 140. Xavier Legette , CAR 10 8 -1 2 2 48 0 141. Marquez Valdes-Scantling , LAC 9 4 -5 3 3 48 0 142. Cyrus Allen , KC 9 8 -2 6 4 47 0 143. Reggie Virgil , ARI 9 5 -4 3 2 41 0 144. David Moore , CAR 9 2 -7 4 2 50 0 145. Hollywood Brown , PHI 9 6 -3 2 2 48 0 146. Barion Brown , NO 9 10 1 6 3 31 0 147. Tim Patrick , NYJ 8 7 -1 3 4 43 0 148. Andrew Armstrong , KC 8 4 -5 2 2 26 1 149. Zavion Thomas , CHI 8 10 1 7 5 27 0 150. Ben Skowronek , PIT 8 12 4 5 3 30 0 151. Andrei Iosivas , CIN 8 5 -3 2 3 26 0 152. Ryan Miller , MIA 7 18 11 5 2 41 0 153. LaJohntay Wester , BAL 7 8 1 7 4 32 0 154. Tutu Atwell , LAR 7 6 -1 4 3 37 0 155. Skyler Bell , BUF 7 0 -7 2 1 25 0 156. Derius Davis , LAC 6 0 -6 6 1 34 0 157. J. Michael Sturdivant , GB 6 5 -1 6 2 37 0 158. Chris Blair , ATL 6 4 -3 7 3 32 0 159. Jalen Tolbert , MIA 6 3 -3 3 2 22 0 160. Jahdae Walker , CHI 6 7 1 7 1 19 0 161. Elijah Moore , PHI 6 5 -1 5 3 31 0 162. Theo Wease Jr. , LAC 6 7 1 2 2 31 0 163. Charlie Jones , NYG 6 7 1 4 2 32 0 164. Lil'Jordan Humphrey , DEN 5 3 -1 4 2 25 0 165. Dareke Young , LV 5 4 -1 7 2 23 0 166. Jordan Whittington , LAR 5 3 -1 6 2 19 0 167. Brenen Thompson , LAC 4 2 -2 2 1 26 0 168. Sterling Shepard , NYJ 3 3 0 2 1 11 0 169. Brandon Smith , PIT 3 4 1 3 1 16 0 170. Ja'seem Reed , CAR 3 0 -3 1 0 8 0 171. Tank Dell , HOU 3 6 2 1 1 15 0 172. Jaylin Lane , WAS 3 5 1 4 2 11 0 173. Elijah Sarratt , BAL 3 2 -1 1 1 18 0 174. Kameron Johnson , TB 3 1 -2 7 1 11 0 175. Colbie Young , CIN 3 3 0 4 2 12 0 176. Christian Kirk , SF 3 0 -3 1 0 10 0 177. Jeshaun Jones , MIN 3 4 2 2 1 17 0 178. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine , IND 2 0 -2 3 0 12 0 179. Luke McCaffrey , WAS 2 0 -2 3 1 10 0 180. Xavier Smith , LAR 2 0 -2 3 1 5 0 181. Deven Thompkins , LV 2 2 0 1 1 7 0
