Expected fantasy points (xFP) strips away player talent and efficiency and focuses solely on opportunity.
FORP -- fantasy points over replacement player -- is the difference between a player's actual fantasy point total (FF points) and his xFP (or expected total).
Wide receiver adjustments are made as follows:
Rushing attempts: No change
Rushing yardage: Rush attempts multiplied by a rusher's expected yardage based on position and rush direction
Rushing touchdowns: Rushing xTD
Targets: No change
Receptions: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected catch rate based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving yardage: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected yardage based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving touchdowns: Receiving xTD
Two-point conversions: xTD multiplied by the league average 2-point rate
Fumbles lost: Touches multiplied by the league average rate
Return touchdowns: Excluded due to extreme rareness and randomness
Below is the 2026 xFP leaderboard for wide receivers:
2026 xFP & xTD leaderboards 2026 xFP: Wide receivers (incl. adjusted stats) Rk. Player xFP Actual FORP G Rec Yds TD 1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba , SEA 19 26 7 1 7 82 1 2. Amon-Ra St. Brown , DET 18 29 11 1 8 64 1 3. Chris Olave , NO 18 28 10 1 7 99 0 4. Puka Nacua , LAR 17 12 -4 1 5 86 1 5. Jalen Coker , CAR 16 34 18 1 5 79 1 6. Deebo Samuel Sr. , SF 16 18 2 1 6 44 1 7. Justin Jefferson , MIN 16 31 16 1 6 67 1 8. Devaughn Vele , NO 14 20 6 1 5 52 1 9. Nico Collins , HOU 13 21 8 1 3 58 1 10. Kalif Raymond , CHI 13 16 3 1 6 65 0 11. Christian Watson , GB 13 33 20 1 4 57 1 12. Mike Evans , SF 13 17 4 1 4 54 1 13. Kendrick Bourne , ARI 12 16 3 1 6 54 0 14. Ladd McConkey , LAC 12 19 8 1 3 53 0 15. Parker Washington , JAC 11 19 8 1 3 55 0 16. DeMario Douglas , NE 11 7 -4 1 5 52 0 17. Antonio Williams , WAS 11 16 6 1 3 40 1 18. Mack Hollins , NE 10 9 -1 1 3 47 0 19. Keenan Allen , IND 10 9 -1 1 4 37 0 20. Matthew Golden , GB 10 16 5 1 4 52 0 21. Jameson Williams , DET 10 9 -1 1 3 36 1 22. Tetairoa McMillan , CAR 9 11 1 1 4 44 0 23. Davante Adams , LAR 9 6 -4 1 4 53 0 24. Garrett Wilson , NYJ 9 14 5 1 4 52 0 25. DJ Moore , BUF 9 21 12 1 3 52 0 26. Caleb Douglas , MIA 9 14 6 1 4 48 0 27. Demarcus Robinson , SF 9 13 4 1 1 32 1 28. KC Concepcion , CLE 8 8 0 1 3 31 0 29. Zay Flowers , BAL 8 26 18 1 3 50 0 30. Luther Burden III , CHI 8 10 2 1 3 39 0 31. Alec Pierce , IND 8 10 2 1 3 39 0 32. Michael Wilson , ARI 8 11 3 1 3 44 0 33. Emeka Egbuka , TB 8 11 4 1 3 40 0 34. Wan'Dale Robinson , TEN 8 9 1 1 4 34 0 35. Stefon Diggs , WAS 7 16 8 1 3 35 0 36. Malik Nabers , NYG 7 13 6 1 0 69 0 37. Khalil Shakir , BUF 7 9 2 1 3 32 0 38. Chris Godwin Jr. , TB 7 8 2 1 3 25 0 39. Dontayvion Wicks , PHI 6 15 9 1 1 30 0 40. Carnell Tate , TEN 6 8 2 1 3 28 0 41. DK Metcalf , PIT 6 8 2 1 3 32 0 42. Pat Bryant , DEN 6 8 2 1 3 29 0 43. Adonai Mitchell , NYJ 6 9 3 1 2 38 0 44. Romeo Doubs , NE 6 0 -6 1 1 40 0 45. Jakobi Meyers , JAC 6 12 7 1 1 22 0 46. Brian Thomas Jr. , JAC 6 7 1 1 2 32 0 47. DeVonta Smith , PHI 5 8 3 1 2 32 0 48. Josh Cameron , JAC 5 10 5 1 1 16 0 49. A.J. Brown , NE 5 6 0 1 3 26 0 50. Malik Washington , MIA 5 6 1 1 2 29 0 51. Cooper Kupp , SEA 5 6 0 1 1 34 0 52. Andrei Iosivas , CIN 5 3 -2 1 2 14 0 53. Jack Bech , LV 5 11 6 1 2 21 0 54. CeeDee Lamb , DAL 5 15 10 1 0 44 0 55. Roman Wilson , PIT 5 6 1 1 2 24 0 56. Michael Pittman Jr. , PIT 5 9 4 1 2 27 0 57. Xavier Hutchinson , HOU 5 6 1 1 3 20 0 58. Xavier Worthy , KC 5 5 0 1 3 17 0 59. Bryce Lance , NO 5 7 2 1 2 28 0 60. Jalen Nailor , LV 5 6 1 1 2 20 0 61. Jayden Reed , GB 5 5 0 1 2 20 0 62. Tee Higgins , CIN 4 9 4 1 2 27 0 63. Ted Hurst , TB 4 7 2 1 1 28 0 64. Denzel Boston , CLE 4 14 10 1 1 25 0 65. Tre Harris , LAC 4 5 1 1 2 20 0 66. Makai Lemon , PHI 4 3 -2 1 3 15 0 67. Drake London , ATL 4 6 1 1 2 18 0 68. Jahdae Walker , CHI 4 7 3 1 1 5 0 69. Jaylin Noel , HOU 4 7 3 1 2 20 0 70. Elic Ayomanor , TEN 4 8 4 1 1 9 0 71. Rashid Shaheed , SEA 4 1 -2 1 2 20 0 72. Terry McLaurin , WAS 4 3 0 1 2 11 0 73. Tre Tucker , LV 4 5 1 1 1 20 0 74. Rome Odunze , CHI 3 7 4 1 1 22 0 75. Jerry Jeudy , CLE 3 5 1 1 2 16 0 76. Courtland Sutton , DEN 3 3 0 1 2 12 0 77. Josh Downs , IND 3 6 3 1 1 15 0 78. Quentin Johnston , LAC 3 4 1 1 2 15 0 79. Rashee Rice , KC 3 10 7 1 2 12 0 80. Ja'Marr Chase , CIN 3 3 0 1 1 16 0 81. George Pickens , DAL 3 6 3 1 0 28 0 82. LaJohntay Wester , BAL 3 4 1 1 1 14 0 83. Darnell Mooney , NYG 3 5 2 1 0 27 0 84. Joshua Palmer , BUF 3 10 8 1 0 16 0 85. Malachi Fields , NYG 3 5 2 1 0 25 0 86. Ja'Kobi Lane , BAL 2 2 0 1 1 7 0 87. Chris Moore , BAL 2 6 4 1 0 17 0 88. Jared Wayne , HOU 2 2 0 1 0 9 0 89. Ryan Flournoy , DAL 2 4 2 1 0 22 0 90. Dohnte Meyers , CIN 2 4 2 1 1 5 0 91. Marvin Harrison Jr. , ARI 2 4 2 1 0 17 0 92. Malik Benson , LV 2 1 -1 1 1 5 0 93. Kayshon Boutte , HOU 2 3 1 1 1 10 0 94. Chris Bell , MIA 2 4 2 1 0 13 0 95. Jahan Dotson , ATL 2 3 1 1 1 12 0 96. Bo Melton , GB 2 2 0 1 1 9 0 97. Jordan Whittington , LAR 2 2 0 1 1 8 0 98. Konata Mumpfield , LAR 2 0 -2 1 1 10 0 99. Isaiah Williams , NYJ 2 2 0 1 1 7 0 100. Olamide Zaccheaus , ATL 2 2 0 1 1 7 0 101. Keon Coleman , BUF 2 1 0 1 1 6 0 102. Omar Cooper Jr. , NYJ 2 4 2 1 1 6 0 103. Jaylin Lane , WAS 1 1 0 1 1 6 0 104. Chimere Dike , TEN 1 0 -2 1 1 6 0 105. Jaylen Waddle , DEN 1 1 0 1 1 5 0 106. Jonathan Mingo , DAL 1 2 1 1 0 10 0 107. KaVontae Turpin , DAL 1 2 1 1 0 8 0 108. Tez Johnson , TB 1 0 -1 1 0 0 0 109. Barion Brown , NO 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 110. Troy Franklin , DEN 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 111. Kameron Johnson , TB 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 112. Myles Price , MIN 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 113. Jimmy Horn Jr. , CAR 0 -2 -2 1 0 0 0 114. Devin Duvernay , ARI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 115. Nikko Remigio , KC 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 116. Greg Dortch , BUF 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 117. Kyle Williams , NE 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 118. Derius Davis , LAC 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 119. Xavier Legette , CAR 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 120. Tom Kennedy , DET 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 121. Braxton Berrios , NYG 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 122. Ashton Dulin , IND 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 123. Malachi Corley , CLE 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 124. Xavier Smith , LAR 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 125. Kaden Wetjen , PIT 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 126. Zachariah Branch , ATL 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 127. Simi Fehoko , ARI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 128. Germie Bernard , PIT 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 129. De'Zhaun Stribling , SF 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 130. KeAndre Lambert-Smith , LAC 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 131. Kevin Austin Jr. , NO 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 132. Laquon Treadwell , IND 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 133. Jauan Jennings , MIN 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 134. Kevin Coleman Jr. , MIA 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 135. Tay Martin , DET 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 136. Brenen Thompson , LAC 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 137. Deion Burks , IND 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 138. Velus Jones Jr. , SEA 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 139. Ryan Miller , MIA 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 140. Cody White , LV 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 141. Isaiah Bond , CLE 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 142. Cyrus Allen , KC 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 143. Dareke Young , LV 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 144. Darius Cooper , PHI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 145. Jalen Brooks , ARI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 146. Odell Beckham Jr. , NYG 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 147. Dyami Brown , WAS 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 148. Colbie Young , CIN 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 149. Arian Smith , NYJ 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 150. Tyquan Thornton , KC 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 151. Jackson Meeks , DET 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 152. Zavion Thomas , CHI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 153. Jalen Royals , KC 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 154. Tylan Wallace , CLE 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 155. Kaden Davis , CHI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 156. KhaDarel Hodge , SF 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 157. Tai Felton , MIN 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 158. Chris Blair , ATL 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 159. CJ Williams , JAC 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 160. Ben Skowronek , PIT 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 161. Calvin Ridley , TEN 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 162. Isaac TeSlaa , DET 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 163. Montorie Foster Jr. , SEA 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 164. Jordan Addison , MIN 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 165. Rashod Bateman , BAL 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 166. Brycen Tremayne , CAR 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 167. Skyy Moore , GB 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 168. Jacob Cowing , SF 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 169. Marvin Mims Jr. , DEN 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 170. Britain Covey , PHI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
