Each week in the NFL is its own story -- full of surprises, both positive and negative -- and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true ... don't be surprised!
NOTE: All mention of fantasy points is for PPR formats, unless otherwise mentioned.
Don't be surprised if ... Seattle Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba surpasses 2,000 receiving yards
Well, here we go again. I wrote about this last season, when Smith-Njigba seemed on his way to the first 2,000-yard receiving season in NFL history. (Calvin Johnson set the record at 1,964 receiving yards in 2012). Smith-Njigba topped 100 receiving yards in eight of the first 11 games in 2025, averaging 119.4 yards. Then the Seahawks faced the Minnesota Vikings' top defense in Week 12 and Smith-Njigba caught only 23 yards worth of passes. He topped 100 yards in one of the final six games and finished at 1,793 yards, eighth most in a season.
Smith-Njigba has 867 receiving yards in seven games, or 123.9 yards per contest, and that is on pace for 2,106 yards. He is the first player with 850 receiving yards and eight touchdowns through seven games since Lance Alworth for the old AFL San Diego Chargers some 61 years ago. For a more recent comparison, during his second season with the Miami Dolphins in 2023, Tyreek Hill entered Week 8 with 903 receiving yards. He ended at 1,799 yards, falling short of 100 receiving yards in each of the final five weeks, and he missed a game, too.
Why is Smith-Njigba different? QB Sam Darnold keeps throwing footballs to the other team, and it hasn't mattered. An average running game that hasn't seen a Zach Charbonnet touch hasn't mattered, either. Little threat from any other Seattle receiving option -- no one has 20 receptions or 200 receiving yards -- hasn't mattered. This is a dominant, one-man show, and the man always seems to be wide open.
Fantasy managers love Smith-Njigba, so we're not breaking any news here. Yes, it matters for our fantasy playoffs if he finishes at 2,100 receiving yards or 1,800 (he on pace for 141 catches on 189 targets and 19 TDs) but the Seahawks don't play the Vikings this season. They play the Chicago Bears, Arizona Cardinals and Las Vegas Raiders during the next three weeks, and those defenses get thrown on. Later, the Seahawks face the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys. They won't stop Smith-Njigba.
Three Seahawks were active in at least 30% or more of ESPN lineups last week: The record-breaking wide receiver, the team's D/ST unit and kicker Jason Myers. When Johnson threatened 2,000 yards for the 2012 Lions, they had a young Matthew Stafford, but he kept getting picked off (17 interceptions). Mikel Leshoure and Joique Bell were the top running backs. Nobody else caught 60 passes or reached 600 receiving yards. I see similarities.
It's all there for Smith-Njigba. Darnold, Charbonnet, TE AJ Barner and the stingy Vikings will not be the reason Smith-Njigba falls short of 2,000 yards. Only injury is. Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs and Smith-Njigba are truly in their own top tier for fantasy.
One more Seahawks thought: Acquiring G Quenton Nelson via trade from the Indianapolis Colts is a big deal and likely to make a difference. It helps Darnold and the skill players around him. Which Seattle RB do you want in fantasy, though? Everyone's talking about Charbonnet, still on the mend from major knee surgery, but how can we trust him? He wasn't exactly an RB1 option to start with. It's quite unique for any team to boast three RBs rostered between 65% and 70%, and first-round rookie Jadarian Price (chest) is third among the three, after Charbonnet and Emanuel Wilson. I think Price will be the one to rely on.
Don't be surprised if ... Baltimore Ravens WR Zay Flowers finishes second in receiving yards
I am not a Lamar Jackson investor, because I tend to fade quarterbacks in the early rounds of drafts, and even if I didn't, chances are I wouldn't select one who has missed four or more games in three of five seasons. Jackson has won two regular-season MVP awards, and he has finished as fantasy's No. 1 QB twice (2019, 2024), but has anyone else noticed he has only one other top-10 fantasy season (he was fourth in 2023)? I'm not intending to rip Jackson, who recently has missed three games because of a sprained ankle but might play Sunday at Buffalo, but can we really count on him for the rest of the season?
Flowers and RB Derrick Henry are big winners if Jackson plays. Flowers enters this week averaging 101.3 receiving yards, and half of his six games came with backup Tyler Huntley starting. Flowers averages 117 receiving yards with Jackson throwing and 85 yards with Huntley. That doesn't really support the position that Flowers is awesome regardless of QB, but it is probably better than most perceived. After all, Tetairoa McMillan and Christian Watson average 85 receiving yards per game, 11th and 12th in the league. Flowers has hardly fallen apart without Jackson, and his target share, thanks to major underachievement from other Ravens, remains fantastic.
In fact, Flowers is enjoying his best statistical season, and (like everyone else) if he can stay relatively healthy, he can surpass 1,500 receiving yards and end up a WR1 option again, just like last season when he was the No. 8 WR. There is much competition for No. 2 on the receiving yards leaderboard. Cowboys star CeeDee Lamb is second, followed by New Orleans Saints star Chris Olave and Atlanta Falcons star Drake London, who did little the first two games with a backup QB. Flowers, in one fewer game, ranks fifth, and New York Giants star Malik Nabers (yep, I was wrong about him) is next. He has had three quarterbacks!
I doubt many would consider Flowers among the top five wide receivers in fantasy. He enters this week at ... No. 5 in WR points per game, and he might get his starting QB back. I have some doubt that even if Jackson starts in Week 8 that he will start every game thereafter, but still, trading for Flowers in fantasy makes sense.
Quick stats on Henry: He averages 4.5 yards per carry with Jackson at QB, and 3.3 yards per carry without him. Also, Henry has torched the Buffalo defense recently, averaging 7.8 yards per carry in the past three meetings. Now is a good time to acquire Henry, too.
Don't be surprised if ... Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield throws for 250 yards and two TDs this week
This doesn't necessarily mean Mayfield is a top-10 play against the Falcons, but at 25.7% rostered, he does seem to be a bit too available. Ignore the low volume from his Week 7 performance; the Buccaneers led 33-6 over the Carolina Panthers at the half and RB Bucky Irving was going off. Mayfield missed three games because of a thumb injury, then threw only 11 passes not because he remained compromised but because the score dictated strategy. Mayfield looked fine.
The Falcons permit 271.4 passing yards per game, a figure topped by only three other defenses, and Mayfield has enjoyed success in recent seasons against Atlanta. Last season, he threw three touchdown passes in the opener, and he passed for 277 yards and two scores in December. In 2024, he threw three touchdown passes in each matchup. Mayfield isn't having a great fantasy season, but this was the No. 12 fantasy QB last season, and he should be more popular. I don't see many (any?) tough passing defenses on his schedule from here on out, including the Falcons and Saints twice.
The Vikings play great defense, but I have Lions QB Jared Goff in several leagues and am not sitting him this week for QBs we project for more points such as Bryce Young, Kirk Cousins, Malik Willis or Kyler Murray (who isn't doing much). Several of them are free agents in my leagues. Goff is arguably playing at the highest level of his long career, with so many skilled players around him; Josh Allen is the only QB averaging more fantasy points this season. This game is in Detroit. Goff handles pressure well and has fared quite well in home games versus the Vikings in recent seasons. We'll worry about the Week 15 matchup in Minnesota later. I can't bury Goff's ranking this week.
For those in multi-QB and superflex formats, I don't think the Raiders willingly flip from veteran QB Cousins to rookie Fernando Mendoza until after their Week 13 bye week. Cousins ranks No. 5 among QBs in fantasy points, but I don't see that continuing the next month with road games against the New York Jets (yes, the Jets), San Francisco 49ers and Denver Broncos, and there is a Seahawks home game in there, too. I do think the Cardinals move away from QB Jacoby Brissett to Carson Beck before that.
Dak Prescott managers really shouldn't worry about the Dallas Cowboys becoming a running team and ruining the QB's fantasy potential. Yes, Javonte Williams ran all over the Philadelphia Eagles because that was the plan and the Eagles looked wholly indifferent to stopping it. That team is cooked. Dallas is not. Game plans adjust each week. The Cowboys employ Lamb and George Pickens. These fellows should thrive this week against the Cardinals, and Prescott should be a top-10 fantasy QB this season.
There is some risk that New Orleans Saints starter Tyler Shough gets dropped in your league because his managers cannot forget the minus-0.16 points from Week 5 against the Minnesota Vikings, and he scored only 13.82 points against the Pittsburgh Steelers last week. This week, his team is on bye. Don't drop this fellow. The Saints return with a solid schedule, a healthy RB Travis Etienne Jr. and with top-10 draft pick WR Jordyn Tyson ready to debut. This is a potential top-10 offense for the rest of the season.