Nine weeks into the 2026 NFL season, Joe Burrow has taken over the MVP odds board. I'm not ready to call this his award to lose, though.
Josh Allen and Brock Purdy both lead strong teams, Jordan Love is heating up, and Trevor Lawrence probably deserves more attention than he's getting.
The question is where we're getting paid enough to bet. Let's break down the favorites, their remaining schedules and whether there's a price worth grabbing before Sunday.
Here's a look at the top five players favored to win NFL MVP.
Odds by DraftKings. 
Odds for major NFL awards can be found here.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (+175)
Burrow is -- and should be -- the favorite, as he has compiled 23 passing touchdowns (16 in his past four games) and completed 74% of his passes. What else do you want? The schedule gives him room to keep going, too, with the Commanders, Saints and Browns up next after Sunday's game against the Steelers.
But I'm passing at +175. The Bengals are still fighting for their division at 6-2, while the Bills and 49ers are both 7-1.
The Steelers found something playing Cover 3 in their first meeting with the Bengals. That makes grabbing this line a bad bet during Burrow's hottest stretch at his shortest price.
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (+275)
With just 12 passing touchdowns, Allen might look further behind than he actually is. Add in his nine rushing scores and suddenly we're talking about 21 total scores for the quarterback of a one-loss team, one with wins over 6-2 Detroit and 6-2 Minnesota.
A matchup with the Jets this week gives Buffalo an opportunity to keep stacking wins and stat lines. Allen's rushing ability keeps him in the race, but Burrow has the stronger production, and Purdy's team has the same record at a bigger payout.
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers (+425)
Purdy has the strongest case outside of the top two. He leads the league in QBR for the 7-1 49ers, and his rushing production also gives him something beyond the passing numbers.
He gets a good matchup this week against the Cowboys, especially considering how that defense has performed against quality quarterbacks. Games against the Vikings, Seahawks and Giants the following three weeks give him chances to strengthen San Francisco's position atop the NFC.
Still, +425 isn't a favorable enough position to bet. Purdy has 17 passing touchdowns to Burrow's 23. Another comfortable win could help, but it doesn't close that gap. I like his chances. I don't love the payout.
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (+600)
Love leads the league in passing yards, but he has played one more game than the other favorites. Burrow averages more yards per game (298.3 to 290.9) and has a much higher completion rate than Love (74% to 63%). Green Bay is 6-3 and fourth in its division. That's a lot to overcome for a guy priced at just +600.
Love's past two games were excellent: six touchdowns, no interceptions and two wins. A matchup with Minnesota this week gives him another shot to make noise, but this number already charges us for the turnaround continuing. I need a much bigger payout. Easy pass here.
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (+800)
This is the one I'd take a small shot on. Lawrence averages 8.6 yards per attempt with 18 touchdown passes and four interceptions, and Jacksonville leads the AFC South at 6-2. The lower yardage total needs context; Lawrence has barely been playing in the fourth quarter because the Jaguars keep putting teams away.
Facing Tennessee twice in three weeks gives him the window to pad his stats, and wins against Chicago and Pittsburgh after that would boost his résumé.
The risk is obvious. The schedule has been light, Lawrence struggled against a competent Broncos defense, and Jacksonville can keep winning without Lawrence catching Burrow statistically. But at +800, I'm getting enough to consider that risk. Lawrence is already playing efficiently enough. Now he needs the numbers and attention. He needs to perform well against the Bears and Steelers.