The Jacksonville Jaguars rolled past the Indianapolis Colts last Sunday and are comfortably atop the AFC South. The Baltimore Ravens, on the other hand, have lost three straight and will start undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano on Thursday with Lamar Jackson (thumb) and Tyler Huntley (toe) both out. Fagnano completed 10 of 21 passes for 91 yards and an interception in relief last week against the Buffalo Bills, and his first start comes on a short week against a Jaguars defense that allows 15.9 points per game (second fewest in the league) and generates pressure on 39% of dropbacks. It could be a long night for the Ravens if they fall behind.
Baltimore needs Derrick Henry to carry the offense. Jacksonville leads the league in run defense at 77.4 yards allowed per game but will be without DT DaVon Hamilton. On the offensive side for the Jaguars, running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. would have a larger role if Bhayshul Tuten is unable to go because of an ankle/foot injury. Trevor Lawrence threw three touchdown passes on only 14 attempts last week, and this is another game where he might not need to throw much.
Betting outlook
Jacksonville is favored by 10. Before Baltimore's quarterback injuries, the early market had the Ravens favored by three. That's a 13-point swing, and the over/under on the game total has dipped to 40.5. The market has already made a major adjustment, so I'm not rushing to lay double digits with the Jaguars on the road.
The Jaguars average only 59.1 plays per game (26th in the league) and run the ball on 48.3% of their snaps. That could help the Ravens stay within the number if Henry can keep the chains moving. The other possibility is Fagnano turns it over and gives Lawrence short fields. The Jaguars have scored 55 points off takeaways this season.
The player prop market may offer better value in this matchup. Lawrence averages a league-low 5.1 fourth-quarter dropbacks per game, and he could have another light workload if Jacksonville builds a lead. Henry has rushed for 58, 45 and 53 yards in his last three games, and the Jaguars have been stout against running backs.
Notable player props, bets
Note: Odds by DraftKings
and subject to change.
Trevor Lawrence passing yards UNDER 235.5 (-112)
Lawrence is playing some of the best football of his career, but the Jaguars haven't needed him to throw often. He has gone under this line in four of seven games this season. If the Jaguars build an early lead against a Baltimore team starting an undrafted rookie quarterback, Lawrence may not have enough passing volume to clear this line. The biggest concern is Baltimore allowing a few explosive passing plays.
Zay Flowers receiving yards OVER 46.5 (-113)
Flowers has cleared this line in six of seven games this season. Baltimore's quarterback situation is the big reason the number is so low. Flowers went without a catch on five targets against Buffalo, but he also was playing with a quarterback who was abruptly called into action. This time, Fagnano has had a few days to prepare. Baltimore enters this game as a double-digit underdog against a tough Jaguars run defense, so the Ravens could find themselves throwing quite a bit. Fagnano's accuracy is a concern, but Flowers should see enough targets to clear this line.