Week 7 of the college football season brings a huge matchup in Bloomington, where Indiana puts its 22-game winning streak on the line against Ohio State and Heisman favorite WR Jeremiah Smith.
Alabama heads to Tennessee looking to rebound from its loss to Georgia while Missouri visits Ole Miss in a game that could keep both offenses busy.
But the biggest matchups aren't the only places to look for a wager. From Kentucky's chances of keeping things close at Oklahoma to a pair of UNDERs elsewhere, myself and Mark Zinno break down our favorite bets for this week's college slate.
Here's what we've got for this week.
Odds by DraftKings
and subject to change.
Missouri at Ole Miss OVER 59.5
Missouri has found its identity on the ground with RB Jamal Roberts topping 200 rushing yards in each of the last two games, only the fourth SEC player in the last 20 seasons to do so. Now he gets an Ole Miss run defense that ranks near the bottom of the country, so Missouri can move the chains without needing big plays.
If Missouri jumps ahead, Ole Miss won't sit back. The Rebels push the tempo even harder when they're trailing, which means more possessions for both offenses and more snaps for a defense that can't get stops. If Ole Miss starts hot with a lead, it still doesn't take its foot off the gas. Pace stays fast while Missouri plays faster when chasing points.
Missouri's defense looks good on paper but that reputation was built against sub-par offenses like Texas A&M's while catching Florida off its biggest win of the season.
Against Mississippi State -- the closest match to Trinidad Chambliss and this Ole Miss attack -- Missouri allowed 499 yards. With Kewan Lacy back, Ole Miss should cash in when it gets close. I have a feeling this is a game where we see Chambliss and the Rebels shine.
Kentucky +7 at Oklahoma
Two things can be true: Oklahoma's defense is one of the best in the country and the Sooners would still need their offense to build a margin. QB John Mateer gets little help from a run game averaging 2.9 yards per carry, while he's thrown under 250 yards in each of his games this season.
In a game this low-scoring (43.5), every possession carries extra weight, and Oklahoma tends to give them away with multiple turnovers through mostly fumbles, which can hand opponents short fields while Kentucky's defense has forced 12 takeaways of its own, fourth-most in the FBS. QB Kenny Minchey can lean on CJ Baxter to shorten the game with a rushing offense that's top-five in rushing success rate along with Jason Patterson averaging 7.7 yards per carry.
Kentucky reaches third down less often than most teams because it picks up first downs on first and second down. Stay on schedule early in drives, protect the ball and this number is within reach.
Best bet: Rutgers at Maryland UNDER 58
Maryland's defensive numbers look ugly. Opponents have scored touchdowns on 13 of 16 red-zone trips, and more than half of the 27 touchdowns Maryland has allowed have come on plays from outside the 20-yard line.
The schedule explains most of it. Seventeen of those touchdowns came against UCLA, Ohio State and Nebraska; three teams with a combined 15-2 record.
Rutgers isn't in that class. Its offense ranks 66th when adjusted for opponents and its run game manages just 3.7 yards per carry, so it can't grind out long drives.
Maryland's offense is a bigger problem, converting 5 of 41 third downs over their last three games and were shut out after halftime at Nebraska. The key is Dylan Lonergan, who threw three interceptions against UMass, which handed the Minutemen easy points and made a 37-21 loss look worse than it was.
Without Lonergan handing over short fields, neither team has a reliable path to points: Rutgers can't run well enough to sustain drives and Maryland can't convert third downs often enough to finish them.
Best bet: Northern Illinois at Wyoming UNDER 41
This game is two offenses struggling with the basics. Wyoming can't throw with Tyler Hughes throwing more interceptions than touchdowns, so the Cowboys lean almost entirely on Samuel Harris and the run game. That should work against a Northern Illinois defense that can't stop the run, but it means long, slow drives that eat clock rather than quick scores.
Northern Illinois has it worse. Its line can't protect QB Taron Dickens or open running lanes, leading the Huskies to have thrown just three touchdown passes all season.
Neither team will speed things up, either. Both play at one of the slowest paces in the country, and neither hurries even when trailing, so there's no late scramble to pad the score. Wyoming's games tell the story: five of its six games have finished with 37 or less total points.
The first half under was an initial look but juiced to -115 for the UNDER on 20.5, I'll leave it off. Even with a defensive or special-teams score, getting to 42 points requires both offenses to play well above anything they've shown all season. -- Pamela Maldonado
Mark Zinno's betting card
Ole Miss -6 vs. Missouri
Ole Miss being favored by this much tells me that oddsmakers know there is a gap between these two teams. The Rebels haven't been home for almost a month as their last home game was a win against LSU, so it's been a minute. Mizzou has spent the last two weeks at home with easy wins over Florida and Texas A&M. They already lost their one true road game and only conference road game against Mississippi State, 31-24. I will continue to say that I think the Tigers are over-ranked.
I do respect their defense, but I question their offense especially on the road. Ole Miss has the better QB here in Trinidad Chambliss and they will have RB Kewan Lacy back after he returned last week against Vanderbilt. The Rebels can't afford to look ahead to Texas next week because they already have a loss in the SEC. I expect a focused effort here in Oxford.
Ohio State at Indiana First Half UNDER 24.5
The Hoosiers have won 22 straight games, and this is their toughest test since the National Championship game.
Coach Curt Cignetti will definitely want to slow the pace down and keep Heisman favorite Jeremiah Smith off the field as much as possible. But it won't be easy to run on the Buckeyes defense that's fifth in the Big Ten and 21st in FBS allowing just 96.2 yards per game on the ground. On the flipside, Indiana's run defense is the best in the conference and seventh nationally at 75 yards per game allowed on the ground.
Hoosiers QB Josh Hoover struggled in his two toughest tests to date against Northwestern and Nebraska. He's taken five sacks in three conference games so far and he's struggled against pressure this season. Indiana leads the Big Ten in sacks and dropped Julian Sayin five times last year in the Big Ten championship game, which was a 13-10 final. Indiana will need to keep this tight and low scoring early if they want to steal a win late.
Oregon State team total OVER 34.5 (-125) vs. Washington State
Wash. Rinse. Repeat. In the last two weeks we have washed and rinsed with Oregon State's team total. Now we try for the "repeat."
This is the best offense in the country no one is talking about, paced by quarterback Braden Atkinson who has 21 touchdowns to just two interceptions while completing better than 70% of his passes. They've scored 122 points in the last two games. Granted that was against two defenses in the bottom 10 of FBS, but the Beavers have the top passing offense in the nation averaging 391.2 yards per game.
This is a bad Cougars offense that's 133rd in FBS in total offense and they convert just 26.9% of their third downs. They are also minus-6 in turnover differential. This should add up to extra possessions for Oregon State. The Washington State defense is much better than the last two opponents the Beavers have faced, but they should still have enough here to get over at home.
Last year, Oregon State scored a combined 18 points in the two meetings with the Cougars. They will score a lot more here.
Navy at UTSA OVER 55.5
The Roadrunners live up to their name on offense, especially at home in Alamodome where they are averaging 518.3 yards per game this season. That should play well against a Navy defense that is allowing opponents to convert on 46.4% (126th in FBS) of third down conversions.
However, the UTSA defense is 119th in FBS, allowing 184.2 rushing yards per game. That won't play well against the Midshipmen triple-option that puts up nearly 300 yards per game on the ground. UTSA played Army, another triple-option team, in each of the last four seasons and allowed at least 27 points in every game. Points should come fast in this one.
Alabama at Tennessee UNDER 51.5
Even with Alabama's loss last week, I may rate them even higher than I did prior to the game. This is one of the most complete teams in the nation, but last week's against Georgia showed how a good defense can limit the Tide on offense. Don't underestimate the Volunteers defensive unit. They can stop the run and are excellent in coverage. They are also tied for 32nd in the nation in red zone defense. Conversely, Alabama's red zone defense is 126th in FBS.
But they shouldn't have to worry about that too much as the Vols offense is under the direction of redshirt freshman George MacIntyre, who makes just his second start. MacIntyre rallied the Vols in the second half to beat Auburn and was effective enough to get a win against hapless Arkansas. The Tide defense will present a whole new challenge that he's not ready for.
I lean Tennessee plus the points here, but scoring will be a problem for them and there's a 27-16-type final waiting to happen in favor of the Tide. If this game goes over, it's for one of two reasons: 1. Alabama dropped 40 on one of the best defenses in the country, or 2. Tennessee found a way to score over 23 points in the game.
This is the Vols' most important game of the season, and they will have to win it with defense.