It's Week 3 of the college football season, and my card could use a little less drama. A few wild swings have made variance a known presence, but there's plenty of football left. I'm keeping my side light this week while we get a clearer read on these teams.
One quick note: I call most of the plays I write about predictions. I'll start incorporating the term best bet on higher-conviction plays. For now, I've got an underdog capable of winning outright, plus a first-quarter total.
Here's what Mark Zinno and I like for Week 3. May variance be in our favor.
Odds by DraftKings
and subject to change.
Best Bet: North Carolina +3.5 at Clemson
I started thinking "can UNC keep it close?" and ended up with "has Clemson done anything to justify laying this number?" I acknowledge that East Tennessee State helped the Tar Heels metrics and LSU damaged Clemson's.
The strongest matchup is UNC's pass rush against Clemson's entire offensive structure. UNC is top 15 in pressures and sacks, while the Tigers are struggling in passing, the run game and blocking, leaving no obvious counter.
If Clemson can't establish the run, they will repeatedly place an unsettled quarterback situation into predictable passing downs against UNC's best unit. That's worrisome with an offense that's had trouble with ball protection, while converting just three of 27 attempts on third downs. Clemson QB Tait Reynolds has been functional from a clean pocket. Under pressure, he completed one pass for one yard.
North Carolina's red zone defense reinforces the scoring concern, allowing only a single red-zone touchdown in five trips.
Now, I'm not ready to call UNC a complete team just yet. But at least offensively, QB Billy Edwards Jr. has protected the ball, produced 9.9 yards per attempt and shown he can attack different levels of the field. On top of UNC having a balanced backfield between Jaylen McGill gaining after contact, Demon June producing the scores and Benjamin Hall hitting the explosives.
Clemson is being priced as the favorite because it's at home and likely being given a pass for playing what could be the best defense in the country, LSU. I don't see the proof that the Tigers are currently the better team. UNC +3.5 is my best bet, and +145 is a legit moneyline play on a smaller scale. The line corrected dramatically from last year. My read: it needs to correct another three or four points.
Prediction: Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin first quarter UNDER 9.5 (+105)
Last week, a pick six wrecked a team total under on the card ... brutal. I'm going back to an under, but this time, I'm looking at the first 15 minutes.
Eastern hasn't scored in the first quarter in any of its three games. Its passing grade ranks near the bottom of the FBS and hasn't run well enough to take pressure off QB Noah Kim. If Wisconsin stops the run without bringing extra defenders, Kim will have to throw in situations where the Badgers know it's coming.
Wisconsin is the question mark. The Badgers scored 3 points against Notre Dame in the opening quarter and 17 last week in their FCS matchup with Western Illinois. Seven came on a blocked punt and seven more came on a 72-yard run on their opening snap. That run -- although difficult to repeat -- shows what can go wrong with this bet. It doesn't show an offense that can move the ball. Wisconsin's offense is inefficient, sitting in the bottom quarter of all programs on early downs (100th in offensive EPA per play and 111th on early downs), leaving the Badgers needing to make bigger plays on third down to keep drives going.
Eastern's defense has been tougher to score on than its yardage allowed suggests, 27th in defensive EPA. That should make Wisconsin work for its points, while EMU's offense may, once again, need time to settle in.
Variance in betting can be tough. But if the reads are correct, trust that positive variance can happen too. -- Pamela Maldonado
Zinno's other bets to consider
Alabama team total OVER 33.5
Is there a bigger revenge spot on the card this week or even this season? Kalen DeBoer and the Tide had to fight perception all season long last year after dropping the opener to the Seminoles, and it almost cost them a spot in the College Football Playoff. A good portion of the Tide players were in the game and will be extra motivated to pay them back. The Tide are coming off a convincing win over Kentucky where they dominated the second half, topping 40 points for the second straight week. Florida State fired the athletic director this week and all signs pointing to a poor showing here could be the nail in the proverbial coffin for Mike Norvell in Tallahassee. Even with FSU coming off a bye, they don't have the horses in the barn to compete here. I don't see Alabama letting up here at all. All gas, no brakes for four quarters in Tuscaloosa.
The Hokies will get their first Power 4 test under James Franklin and it's up the road in College Park, Maryland. The Terps offense is everything I thought it would be with QB Malik Washington so far, but the major coaching advantage here goes to James Franklin over Mike Locksley. Excluding the Covid season, Franklin is 5-0 head-to-head with Locksley and has outscored Maryland 215-36. The Hokies offense is no slouch with Ethan Grunkemeyer either. I get the chalky feel to this bet, but I can't get past the Franklin dominance here as I think it continues.
Rutgers +24.5
USC has one of the best offenses in the country. So why am I fading them here? Well, Lincoln Riley has struggled coming east since joining the Big Ten. The Trojans had zero wins outside the Pacific Time Zone in their first season in Big Ten play and last year had just two, beating Purdue by 16 and Nebraska by four. The Trojans also have a home game against Oregon on deck. They just need to get out of Piscataway with a win and stay healthy. Rutgers is objectively terrible, but coach Greg Schiano may be fighting for his job at this point and not getting blown out will be a high priority for him.
Texas A&M first half -9.5
How much do the Wildcats have left in the tank after the Alabama game last week? After blowing a halftime lead and getting steamrolled in the second half being outscored 32-0, it's hard for me to see Kentucky getting off the deck in College Station. The A&M offense will need to be sharper, but it's their defense that has me backing them early here. They will set the tone and in the run game as they allowed just 76 rushing yards through the first two weeks. Mike Elko knows that he will be able generate a pass rush after Kentucky allowed four sacks last week to the Crimson Tide. I subscribe to the theory, "if they ain't covering early, they ain't covering late" here. If Kentucky can't stay within 10 in the first half, they don't have the offense to come back. The Aggies will look to put this one away early at home.
Texas State - 2.5
The Bobcats are off to a 0-2 start and badly in need of a win. North Texas is coming off a blowout win over UNLV. It says a lot to me that Texas State is favored here as the winless team. I think that the Mean Green win over UNLV was more about a bad travel spot for the Rebels after beating Hawai'i on the islands. The Bobcats will control this game on the ground as they are averaging 225 yards rushing through their first two games. North Texas ranks 117th in defensive third down percentage, allowing opponents to convert 46.4% of the time, while the Bobcats convert 56.7% of their third downs, which is 14th in the nation. Texas State has a -5 turnover margin through two games and as long as that trend doesn't continue, I like Texas State a lot here.