Heading into the college football season, Week 10 looked like it would be a big one. There was plenty going on, but the headliner was a battle of the preseason's top two teams, Ohio State and Oregon. The Buckeyes and Ducks have combined to lose five games, however; both have lost their starting QBs to injury, and Oregon was starting to look disappointing even before that.
Despite this, somehow Week 10 is even bigger than expected?
Miami-Notre Dame is huge thanks to both Miami's unbeaten start and Notre Dame's surprisingly poor standing in the initial College Football Playoff ranking. The Holy War (BYU vs. Utah) is a battle of top-10 teams for the first time. There's potential desperation throughout the SEC -- Alabama at LSU and Georgia at Ole Miss could be must-wins for the home teams, while Texas at Missouri and Kentucky at Tennessee definitely are. (Georgia-Ole Miss is also a rematch of last year's classic CFP quarterfinal, and Kentucky-Tennessee is a battle of top-20 teams for just the second time in 75 years.) Oregon-Ohio State has major desperation vibes, and Iowa at Northwestern is both big and ... potentially fun??
College football always figures out a way to concoct amazing big-game Saturdays, but this one's pretty incredible. Here's everything you need to follow, starting with my 14 favorite games of this loaded slate.
All times Eastern.
No. 1 Miami at No. 11 Notre Dame (7:30 p.m., NBC)
Two years ago, after a strong start, Miami's defense began springing leaks and never stopped. The Hurricanes allowed at least 31 points in six of nine games and finished a disappointing 10-3.
This year, after a brilliant first five games, the Canes have been giving off 2024 vibes. Against their past three opponents, who average a 44.0 ranking in offensive SP+, they've allowed 28.7 points per game in regulation. Notre Dame's offense ranks second in SP+.
I hate it when game previews basically become injury reports, but it's pretty unavoidable here. Miami star receiver and Heisman contender Malachi Toney is out with a high ankle sprain suffered in practice. That will force quarterback Darian Mensah to diversify -- Toney has been targeted 85 times this season, and no one else has seen even 35. Wideouts Cooper Barkate and Daylyn Upshaw and tight end Elija Lofton should be capable of more of a workload, but we'll see how capable. And needless to say, this puts added pressure on Miami's defense to plug some of those leaks.
Notre Dame's defense has its own issues: Linebacker Drayk Bowen and corner DJ McKinney also are out with ankle injuries, and defensive tackles Francis Brewu and Jason Onye are questionable. All-America corner Leonard Moore should be healthy again, however -- when available, he's been about as good as advertised.
Miami's defense ranks third nationally in yards allowed per carry (excluding sacks), and the Canes' pass rush remains solid. But the Hurricanes rank 120th in QBR allowed; looking at just the past three weeks, they're 137th.
In his first two games against SP+ top-25 defenses -- and Miami's still ranks 23rd because of the strong start -- Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr was fine but unspectacular: He took one sack and threw no picks but completed just 59% of his passes at 10.9 yards per completion. He might be the most mistake-proof QB in college football, but he hasn't really proved he can force the issue when he needs to. We'll see if that remains the case against an increasingly generous Hurricanes defense.
With a No. 11 CFP ranking (seven spots below their AP rank), the Irish face all but a must-win here. There could technically be a path for a 10-2 Irish team with enough chaos, but the committee has made it clear what it thinks about Notre Dame's lack of quality wins. Here's an opportunity for a big one.
Current line: Irish -7.5 (up from -4.5 before the Toney news) | SP+ projection: Irish by 3.7 | FPI projection: Irish by 3.9
No. 9 BYU at No. 3 Utah (noon, ABC)
When Utah joined BYU in the Big 12, the Holy War immediately became one of the biggest rivalries in the conference. And here's its biggest game. The rivalry has produced ranked-versus-ranked matchups on four occasions -- 1994 (a 34-31 Utah win), 2008 (48-24 Utah), 2009 (26-23 BYU) and 2025 (24-21 BYU) -- but this is the first battle between top-10 teams.
BYU has lost some juice since its win over Notre Dame. The Cougars' defense underachieved significantly in an upset loss to UCF, and the offense gained just 283 yards in a tighter-than-expected win over Arizona State last week. Star running back LJ Martin has missed the past four games with injury and might be able to play; that would be welcome considering the injuries they've dealt with at the position. The defense appears reasonably healthy too.
As BYU was beating Notre Dame, Utah was narrowly fending off an upset bid from Colorado. But the Utes responded well to the scare, using great defense to hold off Houston, then using a 42-point first-half explosion to stomp Cincinnati. The offense is beautifully efficient and gets a healthy number of big plays from Wayshawn Parker and quarterback Devon Dampier in the run game. The defense, however, has been a bit hit-or-miss because of big plays.
Utah's biggest issue is allowing big plays, while BYU's biggest issue might be that its offense doesn't make enough of them.
BYU coach Kalani Sitake lost his first four games to Kyle Whittingham's Utes, but the Cougars head to Salt Lake City having won all three Holy Wars of the 2020s. We'll see if Utah's rookie head coach Morgan Scalley can turn things back around. Only one of the past 10 games in the series was decided by double digits, and only twice in that span did the loser score more than 21 points. This game is usually an exercise in bashing rocks together and seeing who can play meaner, more physical ball. BYU will have to reestablish its best form to take this one, but that hasn't been a problem over the past few years.
Current line: Utah -4.5 (down from -6) | SP+ projection: Utah by 5.6 | FPI projection: Utah by 5.5
No. 2 Georgia at No. 10 Ole Miss (7:30 p.m., ABC)
There might not be anything better than when a big game shifts into high gear. Last year in the CFP quarterfinal between Ole Miss and Georgia, UGA used a 21-6 run to take a nine-point lead at halftime, but Ole Miss seized control with a 22-3 run. Georgia scored, forced a punt and had a chance to take the lead in the final minute but settled for a tying field goal. Trinidad Chambliss then hit De'Zhaun Stribling for a 40-yard bomb, and Lucas Carneiro nailed a 47-yard game winner.
I've set the bar really high for this one, in other words. Ole Miss probably needs a win to stay on the right side of the CFP bubble, but Georgia might be the most well-rounded team in the country. Ole Miss still has Chambliss -- and, therefore, a chance -- but the Rebels won't have injured star running back Kewan Lacy.
The Georgia and Ole Miss offenses have basically traded bodies this season when it comes to their statistical profiles. Now it's Georgia making big plays and Ole Miss hanging out with the service academies on this chart:
Ole Miss needs more snaps to score this year thanks to fewer chunk plays, but the Rebels' 2026 superpower is red zone perfection. They've scored touchdowns on 83.9% of their red zone trips (first) while allowing opponents just 46.9% (22nd). If you're scoring TDs and your opponent is settling for field goals, your opponent needs twice as many scoring chances. Georgia's red zone offense is great, but the Dawgs are allowing a 70.6% red zone TD rate (118th).
That gives Ole Miss a lifeline, and the Rebels might need it. Aside from a fumbles problem, the Dawgs don't really have any clear weaknesses. Gunner Stockton is averaging a healthy 8.5 yards per dropback, Dwight Phillips Jr., Nate Frazier and Bo Walker are averaging 6.7 yards per carry, and the defense, led by linebackers Chris Cole and Raylen Wilson, ranks fifth in yards per play.
That's a lot to overcome. Of course, so is a two-score, second-half deficit in the CFP.
Current line: Georgia -3.5 | SP+ projection: Georgia by 8.5 | FPI projection: Georgia by 1.9
No. 5 Alabama at No. 14 LSU (3:30 p.m., ABC)
On the third Saturday of October 2009, 3-3 Tennessee had top-ranked Alabama on the ropes. Trailing just 12-10, the Vols recovered an onside kick and had a shot at a game-winning, 44-yard field goal. Terrence Cody blocked it.
It was Cody's second block of the fourth quarter, and it was the closest Lane Kiffin has come to beating Bama. He's 0-5, including four losses as Ole Miss' head coach, but his team is favored against the Tide on Saturday.
Alabama's biggest flaw at the moment is Keelon Russell's increasing propensity for negative plays. The Crimson Tide scored only 27 combined points in losses to Georgia and Tennessee, and now Russell will face maybe the nation's most disruptive defense. LSU ranks first nationally in sack rate (11.8%), almost identical to the sack rate Bama has suffered over its past four games (11.2%).
It seems like Bama receiver Ryan Coleman-Williams is trending toward playing after missing the past two games, as is starting center Racin Delgatty. That will help. So will the fact that Bama's defense is easily the best the Tigers have faced.
Against three SP+ top-25 offenses (LSU is sixth), the Tide have allowed 21.3 points per game and 5.2 yards per play -- very solid work. But while they're 14th in yards allowed per carry (not including sacks), they're just 85th in yards allowed per dropback, and quarterback Sam Leavitt ranks second in Total QBR since Week 4. His performance against Auburn two weeks ago was Heisman-of-the-Week worthy. If not now, Lane, when?
Current line: LSU -6 (up from -4.5) | SP+ projection: LSU by 6.6 | FPI projection: LSU by 2.4
No. 19 Iowa at Northwestern (7:30 p.m., Fox)
As a thought experiment, I just cannot tell you how excited I am about Chip Kelly taking on Phil Parker's Iowa defense. This game has actual stakes, obviously -- Iowa is within shouting distance of a playoff spot and is a projected favorite in every game after this one, and I'm guessing Northwestern isn't completely eliminated despite last week's loss to Oregon. But let's put that aside and nerd out for a second.
Iowa's defense is the ultimate Chinese finger trap: The Hawkeyes punish aggression and force opposing offenses to respond to their identity (instead of the other way around). And this season, Parker has gotten a little more aggressive: Iowa ranks 10th in sack rate and first in three-and-out rate (25.8%). The Hawkeyes have allowed 31 points to a full-strength Ohio State and 9.9 PPG to everyone else.
They haven't faced this, though:
CHIP KELLY https://t.co/idusMLUfap
— Coach Dan Casey (@CoachDanCasey) October 31, 2026
Northwestern just lost at Oregon, and it felt extremely disappointing. That's how quickly perceptions have changed in Evanston. Kelly's offense is top 25 in most of the metrics I lean on, and I really want to see how he attacks the most well-organized zone defense in the country. (Quarterback Aidan Chiles was suddenly listed as questionable on this week's early availability reports, though.)
Current line: NU -2.5 | SP+ projection: NU by 0.7 | FPI projection: NU by 1.8
No. 6 Kentucky at No. 13 Tennessee (6:15 p.m., ESPN)
Against three SP+ top-25 opponents, Kentucky is 2-1 with a scoring margin of minus-26, while Tennessee is 1-2 with a scoring margin of plus-10. Funky.
Will Stein's Wildcats have started 5-1 in the SEC without the benefit of, well, good stats. They neither make nor allow many big plays, and they've been able to turn games into efficiency-and-turnovers battles. But they have a clear quarterback advantage in this game.
Kenny Minchey's performance radar
Minchey is a strong efficiency guy, and after posting a Total QBR of 34.7 over his first four starts, he's at 79.3 over the past four. Tennessee's George MacIntyre, meanwhile, is at 21.6 in his first three starts since replacing Faizon Brandon. Tennessee is better otherwise -- DeSean Bishop is one of the best running backs in the country, and in terms of points allowed per drive, Tennessee ranks 15th and Kentucky ranks 88th. That's why the Vols are favored. But Minchey is much more proven than MacIntyre, and Kentucky has been damn good at finding ways to win.
Current line: Vols -6.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 10.0 | FPI projection: Vols by 5.9
No. 7 Texas at No. 18 Missouri (noon, ESPN)
Somehow Texas has played one true SEC road game to date, but that gets righted soon enough: The Longhorns play at Missouri, LSU and Texas A&M in November. Since the start of 2024, the Longhorns have underachieved against SP+ projections by an average of 8.7 PPG in SEC road games. Meanwhile, since 2022 Missouri is 5-4 outright and 7-2 against the spread as a home underdog.
Texas will have to earn this one, and the Horns will likely be short-handed: All-world tackle Trevor Goosby and running back Hollywood Smothers are out, and stars such as defensive end Colin Simmons and receivers Ryan Wingo and Cam Coleman are questionable.
Missouri has been terribly inconsistent on offense, though, and Texas' defense is easily the best the Tigers have faced and the best unit in this game. Easy points -- via turnovers or random chunk plays -- will be gold in what otherwise might be a rock fight.
Current line: Texas -2.5 | SP+ projection: Texas by 4.1 | FPI projection: Texas by 7.7
Air Force at Army (7:30 p.m., CBS)
This is one of the more underrated and bitter rivalries in college football. It's also one that Army has dominated of late. The Black Knights have won seven of the past nine meetings, and Air Force has topped 14 points only once in the past six.
Air Force has a chance to lock up the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy for only the second time in 10 years; the Falcons have won three of four since losing QB Liam Szarka to injury. Still, Army is eighth in points per possession even after last week's blowout loss to Memphis. The Black Knights seem to have more upside.
Current line: Army -3 (down from -4.5) | SP+ projection: Army by 1.4 | FPI projection: Army by 5.3
No. 23 Oregon at No. 12 Ohio State (3:30 p.m., CBS)
Oregon was handed a lifeline when the CFP committee put a ranking next to its name, but the Ducks obviously still need some breaks, plus a win in Columbus. This is certainly not a bad time to play Ohio State, but Buckeyes freshman quarterback Luke Fahey was decent in his first start -- red zone aside -- and at third in defensive SP+, the Ohio State defense is better than the UCLA and Nebraska units that held Oregon to 15 and 17 points, respectively. Ohio State certainly knows it needs to win this one as well.
Current line: Buckeyes -7.5 | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 11.6 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 13.6
Michigan State at Michigan (7:30 p.m., Peacock)
Since 2010, Michigan State has been an underdog 13 times against Michigan but has covered nine times and won outright five times. But Michigan has won the past four meetings by an average of 33-11. State lost tight ones against Illinois and Northwestern, but quarterback Alessio Milivojevic is still questionable after missing the Spartans' last game. Their biggest hope has to come from the fact that, while Michigan quarterback Tommy Carr has looked pretty good since entering the lineup, he's still a freshman, and this is still a big rivalry game with a funky history.
Current line: Michigan -13.5 | SP+ projection: Michigan by 17.1 | FPI projection: Michigan by 11.2
D-III: No. 4 Wisconsin-Whitewater at No. 2 Wisconsin-Platteville (2 p.m., local streaming)
The title race in the Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference -- aka the best conference in the land -- has been more orderly than I hoped: Platteville and Whitewater are both 5-0, and the winner here will clinch the title. Since nearly falling against Stout in the WIAC opener, Platteville has won four straight by a combined 153-13. Defensive end Dominic Ohlinger leads a Platteville defense that allows only 7.6 PPG, but QB Justin Klinkner and the Whitewater offense have scored 111 points in their past two games.
SP+ projection: Platteville by 6.2.
Virginia Tech at SMU (Friday, 7 p.m., ESPN)
This has already been a lovely first-year turnaround for James Franklin and Virginia Tech, but higher stakes aren't quite out of the question. If the Hokies beat SMU, which then beats Wake Forest, they could land a spot in the ACC title game. SMU lost all margin for error with last week's loss at Syracuse and will need to beat Tech and Wake to have a shot at Charlotte. Its offense remains explosive, but Tech could take advantage of a poor run defense.
Current line: SMU -6.5 | SP+ projection: SMU by 6.9 | FPI projection: SMU by 6.5
Oklahoma at No. 24 Florida (7:45 p.m., SECN)
A lot of the schools that fired head coaches recently enjoyed a new-coach bump; OU will be hoping for the same after firing offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle. I'm not sure what plays you can call when you can't block, but the bar is low for interim OC Jason Witten, and Florida's defense is a generous opponent. With Florida's offense also trending downward -- backup Tramell Jones Jr. will start at QB again after Aaron Philo faceplanted against Georgia -- this has decent rock-fight potential.
Current line: Florida -6.5 | SP+ projection: Florida by 3.7 | FPI projection: Florida by 4.9
Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee (3:30 p.m., ESPN+)
That's right, it's time for 100 Miles of Hate! WKU has won 10 of the last 11 meetings, but the Hilltoppers are 3-5 and inching toward their first losing record since 2020. At 4-4, MTSU has a 50-50 chance of reaching bowl eligibility for the first time since 2022. Both teams were disappointing last week after recent runs of improvement, and both pass a lot despite being better at running. But you're watching this one for the hate.
Current line: WKU -1.5 (flipped from MTSU -1.5) | SP+ projection: WKU by 0.7 | FPI projection: WKU by 1.7
Week 10 chaos superfecta
We're once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. Boise State's late comeback against Texas State rendered us winless last week. Still, we've scored upsets in seven of nine weeks, and it's time to make it 8-for-10.
SP+ says there's only a 39% chance that New Mexico (-10 at Nevada), Auburn (-10 vs. Arkansas), Michigan (-13.5 vs. Michigan State) and Wisconsin (-17.5 vs. Rutgers) all win. One of them is now legally required to lose.
Week 10 playlist
Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of this loaded weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
TCU at No. 22 Arizona (Friday, 10:15 p.m., ESPN). Arizona led Texas Tech in the second half but couldn't close the deal. Now the Wildcats need to win out and hope for help. They'll also need to figure out how to score on an excellent TCU defense; the 4-4 Horned Frogs rank ninth in points allowed per drive, and only a 1-4 record in one-score finishes (driven mostly by a half-baked offense) has held them back.
Current line: Arizona -7.5 (down from -9.5) | SP+ projection: Arizona by 8.8 | FPI projection: Arizona by 8.8
New Mexico at Nevada (9 p.m., CBSSN). New Mexico's last two road trips were unimpressive wins at Hawai'i and San José State. On paper, Nevada is better than either of those teams, especially on defense. New Mexico hasn't topped 21 points in a month; quarterback Toa Fa'avae takes tons of sacks, center Kaden Robnett is out for the season, and Nevada's OLB Dylan LaBarbera is a strong pass rusher.
Current line: UNM -10 | SP+ projection: UNM by 12.9 | FPI projection: UNM by 12.4
Nebraska at Illinois (8 p.m., Fox). Nebraska is 0-3 in one-score finishes this year and an utterly unfathomable 14-40 in them since the start of 2018. (Somehow Arkansas is an even worse 8-31. The bitter, vengeful Mizzou fan I keep tucked away deep inside doesn't hate this. The professional in me is simply flabbergasted.)
Anyway, if the Huskers start progressing back toward the mean in this regard, there are wins on the table, including this one. Their defense is the best unit in the game. But Illinois has scrounged out three straight wins and seems to be playing defense now, too.
Current line: Nebraska -4.5 | SP+ projection: Nebraska by 6.4 | FPI projection: Nebraska by 6.8
Early Saturday
No. 8 UCLA at Minnesota (noon, Fox). Minnesota either drastically exceeds or drastically underachieves against projections every week. The Gophers could make this another hellacious rock fight, but with a good run game and run defense and an outstanding pass defense, that suits UCLA just fine. Despite their newness to the league, the Bruins might be the most Big Ten Big Ten team this year.
Current line: UCLA -5.5 | SP+ projection: UCLA by 11.0 | FPI projection: UCLA by 6.4
Clemson at Syracuse (noon, ESPN2). Both of these teams won while getting outgained last week, and Syracuse even did it while also losing the turnover battle. Syracuse's Steve Angeli has been far steadier since returning to the lineup, and Clemson's Tait Reynolds finally got to fully show off his athleticism against Florida State. Clemson has the more reliable defense, but 'Cuse is pretty good at throwing reliability out the window.
Current line: Clemson -2.5 | SP+ projection: Clemson by 4.1 | FPI projection: Clemson by 2.3
Duke at NC State (12:30 p.m., The CW). With games at Miami and Wake Forest coming up, Duke could technically still play its way into the ACC title hunt. Any time the Blue Devils play like they did in last week's 47-2 win over Boston College, they'll have a chance. NC State got an interim coach bump in blowing out Cal last week, holding an FBS opponent under 28 points for the first time all season.
Current line: Duke -4 (down from -6) | SP+ projection: Duke by 5.9 | FPI projection: Duke by 7.8
Saturday afternoon
Cincinnati at No. 17 Houston (3:30 p.m., Fox). Cincinnati plays fun, efficient (and occasionally very explosive) offense, but Houston's offense is fourth in points per drive. The Cougars' defense is increasingly glitchy and vulnerable to big plays, but the Bearcats are glitchier and rank 100th in points allowed per drive. UC's big-play potential will always create an upset threat, but Houston is the better team.
Current line: Houston -10.5 | SP+ projection: Houston by 10.7 | FPI projection: Houston by 14.1
Texas A&M at No. 21 South Carolina (3 p.m., ESPN). At 5-3, South Carolina is hot and suddenly in playoff contention. With the unexpected twists the SEC has provided us, it would be fitting for the torrid Gamecocks to fall against a listless A&M, but the Aggies might have to score 30-plus to do it. That would require quarterback Marcel Reed to play well against a ranked team for the first time all season.
Current line: SC -7 | SP+ projection: SC by 5.5 | FPI projection: SC by 1.4
UCF at Kansas (3:45 p.m., ESPN2). After upsetting No. 2 BYU and then getting rocked by Baylor, UCF now heads to Lawrence hoping to remain on pace for a bowl. Kansas has been one of the most reliable teams in the country: Six of eight games have finished within five points of SP+ projections. That means we should have a close one on our hands, but that might be bad news for a Jayhawks team that is 3-9 in one-score finishes since 2024. (Pipe down, vengeful Mizzou fan.)
Current line: Kansas -2.5 | SP+ projection: Kansas by 3.5 | FPI projection: Kansas by 4.7
Rice at North Texas (4 p.m., ESPNU). Neal Brown's incredible rebuilding job and Tayven Jackson's high-flying quarterback play have led UNT to a 4-0 start in American play. Rice, meanwhile, discovered its offense last week, with quarterback Gael Ochoa ripping off a series of big plays. If the Owls can pull off something similar as an encore, we could have a ridiculously fun track meet on our hands.
Current line: UNT -16.5 | SP+ projection: UNT by 17.7 | FPI projection: UNT by 18.9
Rutgers at Wisconsin (4:15 p.m., BTN). Wisconsin has enjoyed some Camp Randall magic this season, overachieving against SP+ projections by 13.5 PPG at home. That alone probably prevents this from being a game, though Rutgers has improved offensively in recent weeks. Wisconsin is a projected favorite in every remaining game, and 8-4 or 9-3 would be a hell of a turnaround year.
Current line: Wisconsin -17.5 | SP+ projection: Wisconsin by 15.1 | FPI projection: Wisconsin by 16.3
Saturday evening
No. 24 Boise State at Colorado State (6 p.m., USA). Colorado State has allowed 48.7 PPG since firing its defensive coordinator midgame against Oregon State. The Rams' offense has some firepower, and BSU allows some huge gains. But how many stops can CSU make against QB Maddux Madsen and RB Dylan Riley & Co.? One? Two? (Madsen got hurt against Texas State but is expected to play.)
Current line: BSU -17.5 | SP+ projection: BSU by 19.5 | FPI projection: BSU by 22.2
Liberty at New Mexico State (8 p.m., ESPNU). Liberty is playing its best ball since going 13-1 in 2023. The Flames probably don't have much of a CFP path, but awesome teams are fun to watch, and they're awesome on both sides of the ball right now. NMSU's defense is solid, and RB James Jones has five 100-yard games, but the Aggies will have to play their best game of the season to have a chance here.
Current line: Flames -16.5 | SP+ projection: Flames by 24.6 | FPI projection: Flames by 17.5
Late Saturday
West Virginia at No. 15 Texas Tech (9:30 p.m., ESPN). Texas Tech survived a pivotal test against Arizona, with freshly eligible QB Tommy Castellanos giving the run game a boost. The Red Raiders might need to score quite a bit to counter QB Michael Hawkins Jr., RB Cam Cook and a WVU attack averaging 262 rushing yards per game. Of course, the Mountaineers have also allowed 40-plus to four Big 12 opponents.
Current line: Tech -16.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 22.1 | FPI projection: Tech by 18.2
Texas State at Oregon State (10:30 p.m., The CW). Both this and WVU-Tech have major track meet potential, though rain could impact scoring in Corvallis. Oregon State slipped up at Fresno State last week, but WR Jesse Legree and the Beavers have scored at least 33 in five of their last six, and QB Brad Jackson and TXST have scored at least 45 in four of their last six.
Current line: OSU -6.5 | SP+ projection: OSU by 5.8 | FPI projection: OSU by 7.2
Wyoming at UNLV (10:30 p.m., CBSSN). The winner of this one will have the inside track on a date with New Mexico in the Mountain West title game. UNLV was expected to be in this race, but Wyoming has already won more games (five) than in either of the past two seasons. UNLV's all-or-nothing offense will face a bend-don't-break Wyoming D, but how well Wyoming runs against a fading Rebels defense might decide this one.
Current line: UNLV -6 | SP+ projection: UNLV by 8.2 | FPI projection: UNLV by 11.4
Smaller-school showcase
Let's once again save a shoutout for the glorious lower levels of the sport. In addition to Platteville-Whitewater above, here are two more games you should track.
D-III: No. 14 Baldwin Wallace at Mount Union (4 p.m., FloCollege). The mighty Mount Union Purple Raiders lost twice in September, basically playing their worst ball since the 1980s. The offense has improved, but a loss might place them on the wrong side of the Division III playoff bubble. Running back George Linberger and unbeaten Baldwin Wallace have scored 129 points in the past two weeks. Can the Purple Raiders keep saving themselves?
SP+ projection: Mount Union by 0.5.
FCS: No. 22 Abilene Christian at No. 1 Tarleton State (7 p.m., ESPN+). It's a huge FCS weekend, with No. 2 Stephen F. Austin visiting No. 12 Lamar and No. 3 Montana State visiting No. 18 Idaho State. There's another huge Missouri Valley matchup too: No. 8 Illinois State at No. 15 North Dakota. But we're going with this one because Tarleton State has not made this list since moving to No. 1.
The Texans survived a close call against 3-6 Eastern Kentucky last week. They're only fifth in FCS SP+, but they have the offense for a title run. Abilene Christian, meanwhile, has allowed just 12.3 PPG during a four-game winning streak. Nickel Dillon Williams is a handful, and despite a 1-4 start, the Wildcats could play their way into the playoffs with a strong finish.
SP+ projection: TSU by 15.9.