College football has never been closer to a 24-team playoff -- and yet the current 12-team structure could remain in place for at least another year if the price isn't right.
A 30-day negotiating window between the College Football Playoff and ESPN officially began Sept. 9 to determine the media value of a 24-team field that could start as soon as 2027. As the leaders of the CFP meet in person Wednesday in a regularly scheduled meeting at the Big Ten headquarters, where the concept of a 24-team field was initiated, the future format is expected to be a significant part of the conversation. What was once an idea largely scoffed at by the general public and even the Big Ten's peers is now the leading option in the room. A commitment to 24 teams isn't expected this week, but this is another important conversation that could bring it closer to reality.
The Big Ten, Big 12, ACC and Notre Dame have all expressed public support for the 24-team field, and while the SEC has been open to the idea, it continues to reserve judgement until it's clear the new format would provide the conference enough revenue and everyone agrees to a more unified scheduling model.
"They're still in those talks," one SEC source said, "and until we know for sure what we think that value is, our position hasn't changed as a conference."
CFP leaders have until Dec. 1 to decide if they want to change the format for 2027. The SEC and the Big Ten have the bulk of control over the future format, and they will need to agree on it to move forward. Nobody, though, wants to lose money, and the lucrative Power 4 conference championship games would be eliminated to clear calendar space for more playoff games.
There are also lingering concerns from some stakeholders about the long-term impact a 24-team field would have on the overall health of the sport, but the overwhelming push by a majority of key conferences and leaders who support it seems to have superseded the fear of the unknown. And if it's inevitable, multiple sources have indicated ESPN, as the sole rights holder to the event, would prefer to continue to control the rights to the new games.
"We're looking at four to 12 to 16 to 24, whatever the number is," Texas athletic director Chris Del Conte said. "We're just growing at rapid speed. Our whole industry was pretty methodical for 75 years. In the last five years, there has been so much tumultuous change, from NIL to the portal to two portals to a playoff to an expanded playoff, we're moving as quickly as AI is coming onto the scene. No industry has ever changed this rapidly in such a short amount of time."
Here are the major questions still looming as the 10 FBS commissioners and Notre Dame athletic director Pete Bevacqua meet this week.
Will a 24-team format be valuable enough?
Yes, SEC commissioner Greg Sankey has warmed up to the idea of a 24-team field, but no SEC leaders are going to sign off on it if it doesn't generate additional revenue AND compensate for the loss of their championship game, which generates between $80 million and $100 million.
ESPN owns the rights to the title games for the Big 12, ACC and SEC, and all the Power 4 conference championship games have a media value of at least $200 million, according to sources. That doesn't include the tens of millions the games generate in tickets, sponsorships and other game-day revenue.
So there are two issues the CFP, ESPN and the Power 4 commissioners are trying to concurrently negotiate: ESPN's offer to buy 10 additional playoff games, and the negotiations with individual conferences around the value of their respective title games if and when they are eliminated. (ESPN would own two of the 12 new games under the latest contract, so only 10 would go out for open bid).
"There's just a lot to unpack," one source said.
In a 24-team model, the season would begin on what is now Week 0 and end on Thanksgiving weekend. Those involved in the Army-Navy game are considering moving what's been dubbed "America's Game" into the following Saturday, when league title games currently are played.
The Group of 6 conferences don't necessarily have to get rid of their championship games and are still contemplating the best option. If they were to keep theirs, the most logistical place on the schedule would be Thanksgiving weekend, as Selection Day would be that Sunday and the Army-Navy game would be the following Saturday in a standalone time slot. For the Group of 6 conference championship games to remain, those teams might have to eliminate one of their two bye weeks to account for the title game on the final Saturday of the regular season.
Will everyone agree to play 10 Power 4 opponents?
In addition to making money off the playoff, Sankey has asked the Big Ten, ACC and Big 12 to agree to play 10 Power 4 opponents or Notre Dame. The SEC, ACC and Big 12 already ask their schools to follow a scheduling model with nine conference games and a 10th Power 4 opponent. The question is how well it's enforced. A Power 4 source with scheduling knowledge said there are currently 11 Power 4 teams that wouldn't fulfill this requirement in 2027, and they're from the SEC, Big Ten or Big 12.
"We look at some of the schedules," Sankey said recently at a Monday Morning Quarterback Club in Birmingham. "There are a lot of question marks. And so having that answer, you know, some better expectation of how we engage in nonconference schedules is important."
Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti has recently said he would be willing to require the schools in his conference to play a 10th Power 4 opponent and that he's "totally comfortable doing that as a commitment."
"I think Greg is right," Petitti told On3. "His position about doing things to strengthen the game, and if you're saying that 24 unlocks this, then what's the commitment to actually do it? I think as a league, we're ready to have that conversation and try to make those commitments. To me, it would be a great result if we had more access to the playoff and at the same time, we're also talking about playing the games that you want to see these first couple of weeks of the season, that all fans want to see.
"So I'm totally lined up with what Greg's position has been on the scheduling strength and what has to happen," Petitti said. "He's right, and we've been saying it from the beginning, that if you get 24, we're going to put our money where our mouth is. We're going to do what we said, which is we're going to improve our schedules, and I'm totally comfortable doing that as a commitment."
In the Group of 6 conferences, it's getting increasingly difficult for those schools to line up even one nonconference game against a Power 4 team. CFP leaders could consider a requirement to eliminate FCS opponents, so Group of 6 teams play only FBS-level teams.
Most schedules at every level are done years in advance. Notre Dame and Clemson, for example, have an agreement that runs from 2027 through 2038. Other high-profile matchups are also locked in, as Texas has a nonconference game against Michigan lined up in 2027 followed by Notre Dame in 2028.
"If everyone plays 10 Power 4 opponents across the board, then you have at least some measurement there," Del Conte said. "The ambiguity of 'Is this league stronger than that league top to bottom,' all the question marks that you have ... we need to have the best as we can some equal measurement on that."
What will happen to the rest of the bowls?
Last year, there were 82 bowl-eligible teams, and 12 of them participated in the CFP. That left 70 teams that played in non-CFP bowl games -- 32 from Power 4 conferences. Bowl Season executive director Nick Carparelli pointed to the math when he said that even if the playoff field were to double, the "vast majority" of bowl-eligible teams still wouldn't be in the CFP.
Carparelli said he doesn't believe conferences will enter into bowl agreements that they don't believe they can fulfill, which should prevent teams from opting out of bowls.
"Many of those teams would continue to embrace a postseason opportunity moving forward," he said.
Some bowl executives, though, question the quality of teams that will be left to choose from if the best teams from the Power 4 conferences are all in the playoff -- especially from the SEC and Big Ten. Last year, the likes of Notre Dame, Texas, BYU, Vanderbilt, Utah, USC, Arizona, Michigan, Virginia and Iowa all would have been in a 24-team playoff.
"It's going to be diluted for sure," one Power 4 source said.
Erik Moses, who is executive director of the Cactus Bowl as well as the Fiesta Bowl's CEO, said he's "very concerned" about the uncertainty facing the sport's postseason along with the bowls' unique ability to provide charitable resources and connections to their local communities.
"Yeah, there's some skittishness about what's next," Moses said.
Moses said he doesn't have a "doomsday approach" to it, but it would be nice if everyone involved -- the conferences, the bowl partners, fans, media partners and communities -- could reimagine something that works for everyone "as quickly as we can."
There has been some public speculation and reports about playing the bowls before the season, but a source in the bowl industry said nobody within the bowls "thinks that's viable." While the regular-season neutral site kickoff classics will continue and possibly increase in numbers, the source said they will "never be a replacement for bowl season."