ESPN rolled out its annual NBA summer forecast this week, asking its panel of experts to predict everything from 2026-2027 win-loss records, conference finals champs and champions, award winners and which teams will be the biggest surprises and disappointments.
This yearly forecast, of course, generates considerable conversation across the NBA.
Those who work in the league, many of them back from August vacations, have their own set of reactions -- and aren't afraid to share them.
We're here to hear it. Here are five of our forecasts that generated the most chatter across the NBA.
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Rookie of the Year | The Wizards?!
50-win teams | Magic/Pacers at No. 9 | A Jazz leap
Rookie of the Year
We talked to a half dozen scouts, executives and coaches about who might win Rookie of the Year and most of them didn't have a quick answer, primarily, they said, because of the impressive talent at the top of the draft.
Most of them, that is.
"Boozer is a winner and he's won things his entire young life," said one Eastern Conference executive, clearly a Boozer fan. "Memphis isn't going to have a good year, but he's going to be the bright spot and he's going to win the award."
Our polling agrees -- but barely.
Boozer was projected just ahead of the Jazz's No. 2 pick Darryn Peterson.
Interestingly, though, Peterson doesn't have much support among the league personnel we contacted for this piece. Mostly because of the supporting cast he'll have on the Jazz.
"Rookie of the Year is an award that's centered on opportunity," a Western Conference executive said. "[Peterson] is going to be great, but on that team I'm not sure how much opportunity he's going to get."
Bulls' top pick Caleb Wilson came in fourth in ESPN's poll, but he's got more support in league circles.
"Wilson looked awesome when we got into the film," an Eastern Conference assistant coach said. "He's got all the tools and I have to assume [Bulls coach] Tiago [Splitter] is going to lean into what he can do."
Not everyone was quite as certain.
"The Bulls have some guys who are going to need the ball and want to have big years," another executive said. "If I was [Matas] Buzelis, I'd be using this year to convince the Bulls that I'm a franchise level player so I can get paid next summer. And [Josh] Giddey is going to have the ball a lot. I'm sure Wilson will put up numbers, but he's going to have more competition there than Boozer will."
Wizards No. 1 pick AJ Dybantsa came in third in ESPN's poll, a number multiple insiders believe is low.
"Dybantsa would win Rookie of the Year in most of the years of the last decade," one scout said. "Great size, built to score. He probably won't shoot it great from 3, but I don't worry too much about percentages from rookies."
"You're overthinking it if you don't pick A.J.," an Eastern Conference scout said. "He's the most equipped to win the award. Last year, Kon [Knueppel] had a great opportunity, and he had a case but, you know, Cooper [Flagg] was best equipped, and he won it in the end."
Speaking of Washington ...
Wizards picked to go 31-51 and finish 12th in the East
ESPN's forecast for the Wizards was a talker.
The Wizards lost an astounding 27 of their last 28 games, but they still drank more champagne than almost everyone over the summer when their tank landed them the No. 1 pick.
Like with some other tankers from last year, their 17-65 record was artificially deflated.
With Trae Young, who barely played after being acquired, and Dybantsa, the Wizards' roster is getting a massive talent infusion.
The discussion around the league? Thirty-one wins might be low.
"I was prepping for the Mavericks last year just before Christmas and I saw AD play that game in New Orleans and I saw the two games after that on tape," a West advance scout said. "Say whatever you want to say about him, but that guy is still in there. And if he shows up for, say, 55-60 games, your Wizards number is low."
The game in New Orleans last season was a dominant 35-point, 17-rebound performance against his old Pelicans team. In the three-game span in late December, Davis averaged 30 points, 15 rebounds and shot 58%.
Of course, three games don't make for much, but Davis played only five more contests in the season and not a single minute for the tanking Wizards after he was traded there.
The Wizards have a lot of storylines this upcoming season. It's Dybantsa. It's Young coming off an injury and a massive new contract. It's the development of 2025 lottery pick Tre Johnson. But the experts are watching AD.
"It all comes down to him," a Western Conference executive said. "He's going to be playing for a contract or maybe playing to get traded. He's a game changer."
50-win teams
"How many 50-win teams were there last year?" the Western Conference scout asked.
Checks notes. ... There were nine: Thunder, Spurs, Nuggets, Lakers, Rockets, Pistons, Celtics, Knicks and Cavs. And the Wolves had 49.
"Well, y'all have nine [projected] this year and I don't see that. How many would there have been last year if a quarter of the league wasn't tanking?
How many were there two years ago?" he said.
Checks notes. ... There were nine.
"Well, there's gonna be less."
Magic and Pacers picked ninth in East
Some team(s) is going to be a casualty of an increasingly competitive East, and our panel has forecasted those teams will be the Pacers and Magic, who were picked to have the last two play-in spots with a record of 44-38.
"I think they saw it as you picked them both 10th," one executive joked.
Both teams dealt with an array of injuries last season. Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero missed big swaths of the season, and Orlando still won 45 games.
But evaluating their season is complicated after they blew a 3-1 series lead to the Pistons, their offense collapsing when it mattered and it leading to the firing of coach Jahmal Mosley.
The Pacers won 50 games two years ago and effectively tanked last year to 19 wins.
Tyrese Haliburton is back after missing a year due to an Achilles tear, but his supporting cast has changed significantly, with Myles Turner being replaced at center by Ivica Zubac and Bennedict Mathurin effectively being replaced by Kelly Oubre Jr.
They're going to improve massively, but it's hard to see exactly how much.
Looking at the compacted East, the uncertainty of these two teams made them the best candidates, per our forecast. And it's not just the journalists who say so. The pros' opinions too:
"I'm interested to see how [new Magic coach Sean] Sweeney impacts them," a West executive said.
"They've sniffed around making big changes to their roster and haven't. So far, they've only changed the coach. And they're more expensive than they've been. So they're a team to watch depending on how they start the year. To me that's more interesting than guessing where they're going to finish."
Said an Eastern Conference executive: "I felt bad that [Jayson] Tatum had to shut it down in the playoffs last year, but it was a reminder that Achilles recovery is not always linear.
"It's good that Tyrese has taken it slow and he'll be more than a year [16 months] off the injury when the season starts, but it's probably better for all of them that the expectations are kept reasonable.
Said a Western Conference assistant coach: "Zu[bac] wasn't having a great year last year in L.A. before they traded him. He was not the same defensive force he was the year before.
"I'd have to really break down the film to see if there were knock-on reasons from the other changes [the Clippers] made to their roster but Indy needs him to be back to the defensive anchor he was [in 2024-25]."
Conflicting views on the Jazz
The Jazz have won 31, 17 and 22 games over the past three seasons and now intend to ramp up, with Peterson and a healthy Jaren Jackson Jr. joining Lauri Markkanen and Keyonte George, who had a breakout 2025-26 season.
They were picked by our panel to leap into the play-in and increase their win total to 34.
Some of this positivity is driven by the belief in Peterson's expected impact and the improvement seen by recent draft picks.
And not just George, who exploded to a 24-point scoring average last year but also Kyle Filipowski and Brice Sensabaugh, who both had impressive stretches after the All-Star break.
Sometimes the trio would be playing so well that the Jazz would bench them as they tried to maximize draft position.
Still, some insiders say we should temper our expectations.
"They lost their center," said a scout, referring to the decision to sign-and-trade Walker Kessler to the Lakers. "They will probably be able to replace him with the stuff they got [two first-round picks and two pick swaps], but they're going to feel not having him. I'm not as optimistic."
"I would've wanted to see more from [Ace] Bailey in July, but we didn't," a West executive said after Bailey played only parts of two summer league games due to back spasms.
"He's a pretty big swing piece for them."