Fantasy championships aren't won in the first five rounds. Everybody at your draft table walks away with stars; the margins are decided later, when the pool is shallow and you're throwing darts in the 20th round.
Here's the thing about those darts: most people throw them blind. A name they half-remember, a rookie they heard was good, a vibe. But the late rounds aren't a lottery -- they're the most inefficient part of the draft, which means they're the most exploitable. A second power-play unit, a vacated top-six job, a rookie who quietly posted an elite rate stat in a 14-game cameo (spoiler alert!).
The upside is real, it's just buried in details nobody's checking.
ESPN tracks average draft position out to a 10-team league, so 230 players. Under 200 ADP, a player's going in most drafts. From 200 to 210, it's a coin flip. Past 220, he's almost certainly there for you. So the question isn't whether you can get these guys late. It's which of them have an actual reason to pop. Maybe it's a path to minutes, a stat that says the talent's already there, or a situation about to break their way.
These are mine. Every one is going past pick 200, and every one comes with the hook -- the number or the role -- that makes the gamble a calculated one, not a shot in the dark.
Rate stat rankings below are filtered to players with at least 13 minutes per game to remove the noise.
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Forwards
Anton Frondell, C, Chicago Blackhawks (ADP 226.7): In his 14-game extended cup of coffee at the end of last season, Frondell flashed some eye-popping rate stats that included pushing the offense on and off the power play. With Connor Bedard sidelined for an undetermined amount of time, the Hawks offense will run through Frondell. His shots-per-minute rank was good enough to be 14th in the NHL last season, even if the sample was small.
Josh Doan, LW/RW, Buffalo Sabres (ADP 227.6): A sparkplug on the Sabres scoring lines, Doan has plenty of competition for key roles. But he also has an incumbent's advantage, having played out last season with both feet in the lineup while others cycled through. He shoots enough to matter in deeper leagues even when the points are quiet. His rate of power-play goals was top 40 in the league last season.
Danila Yurov, C, Minnesota Wild (ADP 229.9): The Wild did not get the top-line center they need in the offseason, so they will have to roll with the top-line center they have. For now, that could be Yurov. With two wingers that will flirt with top-10 overall fantasy stats, the Wild will make a star of someone that can take faceoffs. Yurov, 22, has been getting pro looks in the KHL since he was 17 and is the current KHL record-holder for points by a 20-year-old when he broke Vladimir Tarasenko's mark in 2023-24.
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Gabe Perreault, RW, New York Rangers (ADP 229.4): Now with plenty of room to showcase his scoring among the top six, Perreault even has a wedge to push for power-play time if he can take a step forward in his sophomore season. The pedigree's there -- a top prospect who profiles as a play-driver -- and a middling rookie line shouldn't scare you off the role that's opening in front of him. Nine goals in the final 23 games of last season hints at his potential.
Anthony Cirelli, C, Tampa Bay Lightning (ADP 219.4): A lot of these late-round gems are younger players, but Cirelli is just quietly underappreciated. The highs of his 2024-25 campaign are well behind us, but that doesn't mean he isn't a consistent engine for two-way, multi-category value. The shots and the shorthanded time all add up on a contender. Even though the totals were down from his explosive 2024-25 campaign, he still finished 108th in fantasy points per minute.
Anthony Mantha, RW, New Jersey Devils (ADP 218.3): Finally pulling together a season-long display of what he can do, Mantha arrives on a Devils club with less margin for error, but a higher ceiling than his draft cost implies if the shooting touch holds. He was 14th in the NHL last season in goals per minute.
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Defensemen
Simon Nemec, Calgary Flames (ADP 228.4): With a couple of seasons under his belt and no chance to escape the shadows of Dougie Hamilton and Luke Hughes, Nemec has nothing but a clear runway in Calgary. He has the experience advantage over Zayne Parekh to claim the quarterback role, and even non-playoff-bound power plays can pile up points.
Martin Fehervary, Washington Capitals (ADP 222.1): It's not always about goals and assists. Fantasy points are fantasy points. Fehervary piles up the hits and blocks that fill category columns and quietly bank points, especially in leagues that count them at a premium. Even with non-existent points, Fehervary was 114th in total fantasy points last season and he doesn't get enough credit for it.
Cole Hutson, Washington Capitals (ADP 210.9): It was a small sample, but there is no denying Hutson's knack for the net on the advantage. Same warning as Frondell: a 14-game sample isn't definitive proof of anything. But it's enough to at least be enticed by the fact that the only two players with more power-play assists per minute of ice time last season were Connor McDavid and Mikko Rantanen.
Seth Jones, Florida Panthers (ADP 218.4): There is no question that 2025-26 is not a reflection of the potential of the Panthers' fantasy assets. Injuries all around gives us a complete mulligan. Jones has a real chance to anchor a lethal power play and that's what this is all about. He was their quarterback the last time everyone was healthy during the 2024-25 playoffs, so the hope is that he can resume the role again.
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Goalies
Anthony Stolarz, Toronto Maple Leafs (ADP 229.6): Bobrovsky is a preparation legend and may be in the super minority of goaltenders who can remain effective at the age of 38. But when the cliff comes, it comes fast. Stolarz is still in his late prime and showed extraordinarily well in extended action in 2024-25 before last season was derailed by injuries. He's a must-add insurance pick if you take a risk on Bob, but I would argue is a shrewder investment. Only Connor Hellebuyck had more fantasy points per 60 in that 2024-25 campaign.
Frederik Andersen, Edmonton Oilers (ADP 229.8): OK. Fine. He's already hurt. But with lowered expectations making the investment cost also low, why not take a chance? The Oilers are a powerhouse club with the best player in the world on offense. It doesn't take too much for a reliable goaltender to watch his angles, make a few big saves and earn fantasy points despite allowing goals. Brandon Bussi gets all the credit because he crossed the finish line, but don't forget that Andersen ran four-fifths of the marathon in the postseason for Carolina, with a 13-2 record and 1.89 goals-against average.
Jacob Markstrom, Florida Panthers (ADP 211.0): I know this is two 36-year-old goaltenders in a row being recommended after arguing why a 38-year-old goaltender is too risky. But, again, the decline is steep and unforgiving for goalies after 34. So yes, Markstrom, like Andersen and like Bobrovsky, is not without risk. But he's the best team situation of the three -- a genuine contender in front of him -- so the wins and workload are there if the body holds.
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