Just like get-rich-quick schemes or movie star lookalikes online who insist they're really, really into you, some early-season fantasy performances are too good to be true. Or rather, too good to remain true. If that middle-pack winger is suddenly lighting it up in uncharacteristic fashion, there's reason why. Or they're off to an exceptionally lucky start. Fortunately, we have access to metrics that help expose who's finding the net more often than they realistically should. Players who you might want to move via trade before their fantasy-relevant numbers cool off.
With the help of Evolving Hockey in providing Individual Shooting Percentages (Sh%) Individual Expected Goals (ixG), we can suss out who might be overachieving in finding the back of the net this fall with a little too much help from Lady Luck. Plus a trio of current underachievers to target before they predictably erupt.
More: Rankings | Most added/dropped | Mock Draft Lobby
Draft guide | Who to keep or drop | One pick for every team | Sign up
Artturi Lehkonen, F, Colorado Avalanche(35.29 Sh%, 12 goals, 6.42 ixG): Unquestionably, the Avalanche winger is serving as a fantasy delight to launch 2026-27. Equally incontestably, there's zero chance he continues to capitalize on one-third of his shots on net. Lehkonen scored six goals in his first 16 games this past season, which falls much more comfortably within the productive scope of his 12-year career. Oh, he'll probably net a career-high 35-plus this round -- it's a contract year! -- based on the foundation of this fortuitous start. But that only amounts to another five goals or so per month. Trade Lehkonen now, while other managers remain wooed by his team-leading, double-digit tally.
Matvei Michkov, F, Philadelphia Flyers (37.04 Sh%, 10 goals, 5.13 ixG): The good news is, the 21-year-old is clearly in far superior shape to start this campaign after a disappointing showing in 2025-26. Even better for the Flyers, Travis Konecny is healthy again, along with Owen Tippett. Which is handy, considering Michkov isn't going to score another 10 goals in this coming stretch of four weeks. Wait for the skilled forward to maybe pop another goal or two, and then place him on the fantasy trade block. As far as regular skaters are concerned, only Seattle's Frederick Gaudreau has a more inflated shooting percentage at present.
Alex Tuch, F, Washington Capitals (25.64 Sh%, 10 goals, 7.46 ixG): Talk about making an excellent first impression. We're barely accustomed to seeing Tuch out of his Sabres kit (Vegas feels like eons ago now), and the new member of the Capitals is already justifying his fresh and hearty paycheck. However, the clever number crunchers tell us he should have only seven goals, not 10. Plus, other members of this very deep Washington squad are starting to heat up, and there are only so many goals to go around. Tuch could soon see his lesser share, especially if he's moved to another line at some point. Plus, he isn't skating on the top power play.
Vasily Podkolzin, F, Edmonton Oilers (27.27 Sh%, 9 goals, 5.37 ixG): It was fun while it lasted. Skating on a top line with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, and for a spell on the primary power play, Podkolzin contributed well beyond his NHL reputation. However, two goals (three assists) in 10 recent games suggests the well is drying up. Plus, that unmaintainable shooting percentage, which is the whole point of this discussion. Drop him and pick up Kasperi Kapanen -- the current placeholder for Zach Hyman on Edmonton's No. 1 power play -- or, better yet, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, if available.
Logan Cooley, F, Utah Mammoth (30.77 Sh%, 8 goals, 5.39 ixG): In an ideal world, coach Andre Tourigny successfully encourages his rising star to shoot more on net altogether. Already in his relatively short career, the 22-year-old is displaying an undeniable knack for accuracy. If Cooley continues to pepper the net more often, as has been the case in four recent games, he'll score upwards of 45 this year. If not, and the forward hovers around the 150-shot mark once again, that ceiling drops. Food for fantasy thought when weighing his worth this season in redraft leagues.
Ready to heat up
Juraj Slafkovsky, F, Montreal Canadiens (5.75 Sh%, 2 goals, 4.50 ixG): No one wears their feelings on their face louder than the Montreal winger. Let's just say his expressions have fallen on the darker side of late. No doubt having only two goals to show for 15 games, after scoring 30 this past season, must feel very frustrating. But not to fret. Along with an inevitable turn in fortune, having Nick Suzuki back as his regular center will only expedite getting Slafkovsky back to his scoring self. Consider making his present manager an offer.
Patrick Kane, F, Chicago Blackhawks (4.00 Sh%, 1 goal, 3.3 ixG): Once back from injury, the Blackhawks veteran is going to pot more than one goal on his next 25 shots while competing alongside Connor Bedard. Promise. If you need scoring help, keep an eye on Kane's precise return date and give him a whirl in deeper leagues. The winger is currently available in about a third of ESPN Fantasy leagues.
Mark Scheifele, F, Winnipeg Jets (5.56 Sh%, 2 goals, 6.33 ixG): Scheifele scored 36 goals (67 assists) last year and 39 the previous season. Since this is a player who has averaged a 17.3 Sh% over his long career, don't be surprised if they start counting up quickly. If anything, this week's historical comeback win over the Canadiens should buoy the club as a whole. Volley his manager a proposal, sooner than later. Offer up Alex Tuch.