NFL survivor power rankings: Why this is the week to use Seahawks, Chiefs

Only 1.9% of total entries remain entering Week 9 on ESPN Survivor, though it was nearly much less. The Cincinnati Bengals needed a late fourth-quarter comeback to hold off the Tennessee Titans in overtime, saving 27% of ESPN Survivor entries. It would have been the third straight week with a double-digit upset.

Only three favorites ended up losing last week, but the Dallas Cowboys knocked out another 13% of entries, blowing a 14-point 4th-quarter lead at home against the Arizona Cardinals. It was the third time this season the Cardinals have won as at least a seven-point underdog, all on the road.

This week, the Cardinals are once again big road underdogs as they visit the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks are the biggest favorites of the week, but surprisingly, they are only 17% selected as of Wednesday morning on ESPN. If that number is accurate, Seattle is the obvious pick.

The Seahawks are coming off a double-digit loss in prime-time, while the Cardinals are coming off another huge upset last week. That combination could scare some players off Seattle, though I expect them to be the chalk pick in higher stakes contests.

Instead, the Detroit Lions are getting the most selection at 31%. If that number is close to accurate, they are a pretty easy fade with several other big favorites out there including the Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers and Jacksonville Jaguars. None of those three teams are widely available, but if you have them, this is a good week to use them at lower rates.

If you're looking to burn a lower-quality team, the Dallas Cowboys make sense on the road in Indianapolis, but the Cowboys host the Tennessee Titans and Philadelphia Eagles in Weeks 11 and 12. The Chicago Bears (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers), Houston Texans (at Los Angeles Chargers), Los Angeles Rams (at Washington Commanders) and New York Giants (at Philadelphia Eagles) are the other teams with any viability this week.

Note: Odds by DraftKings and subject to change. Future value based on Mike Clay's cheat sheet.

1. Seattle Seahawks (vs. Arizona Cardinals)

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The biggest question regarding the Seahawks is what you think their selection rate will be. At 17%, they are an easy choice. If they cross the 30% mark, which I think is very possible in sharp contests, then there's much more of a debate. The Seahawks still have several usable games left, including a three-week stretch against the Cowboys (home), Giants (home) and Eagles (road) in Weeks 13-15, but this is by far their easiest spot. Seattle is on a short week, but Arizona is playing its third road game in four weeks. While the Cardinals have been friskier than expected, two of those upset wins have come against the Chargers and Cowboys, who are a combined 3-12 this season, so the Seahawks should prove to be a tougher test.

• Chance to win: 82% (ESPN Analytics), 87% (Mike Clay)

• Spread: Seahawks -12.5 (-700 moneyline)

• Future value: Seventh

• Availability: 81%

• ESPN Selection: 17%

2. Kansas City Chiefs (vs New York Jets)

If you still have the Chiefs, this is a great week to spend them, and they are my top choice in sharper contests where you expect Seattle to be more heavily picked. They are just 28% available on ESPN, but they do not have many usable spots coming up. Week 11 at home against the Cardinals looks great, but it looks like that week will have plenty of other similarly strong options. After that, they probably aren't usable again until Weeks 17 and 18 (at Chargers, vs Raiders). The Chiefs won't take the Jets lightly coming off back-to-back losses, and while New York's offense has improved of late, their defense has regressed significantly.

• Chance to win: 80% (ESPN Analytics), 79% (Mike Clay)

• Spread: Chiefs -9.5 (-575 moneyline)

• Future value: 15th

• Availability: 28%

• ESPN Selection: 12%

3. San Francisco 49ers (vs. Las Vegas Raiders)

Normally a double-digit favorite at 4% selection would be an easy call, but taking the Chiefs gives you a little more flexibility down the road than the 49ers. The 49ers' top matchups after this week will be Week 17 (vs. Eagles), Week 15 (at Chargers) and Week 13 (at Giants).

• Chance to win: 84% (ESPN Analytics), 85% (Mike Clay)

• Spread: 49ers -10 (-535 moneyline)

• Future value: Fifth

• Availability: 29%

• ESPN Selection: 4%

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (at Baltimore Ravens)

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The Jaguars are a similar case to the 49ers, but they have more future value. They still have two games left against the Titans and several more relatively easy matchups down the stretch. As a result, I probably would save them again and opt for one of the favorites above them, but they are clearly a plus-EV pick this week, so I can't blame you if you take them. Remember, this game is Thursday night, so make your pick early.

• Chance to win: 81% (ESPN Analytics), 92% (Mike Clay)

• Spread: Jaguars -10 (-535 moneyline)

• Future value: First

• Availability: 47%

• ESPN Selection: 7%

5. Chicago Bears (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

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The biggest question with taking the Bears now is how you want to handle Week 14 when they visit the Dolphins. They will likely be the heavy chalk that week, so if you use the Bears now at lower selection, it helps you get off that pick later, especially if you can save the Lions or Seahawks. I would be less willing to use them in contests that have multi-pick weeks, as the Bears will have several other games they are smaller favorites in. But in single-pick pools, they aren't a bad contrarian choice.

• Chance to win: 63% (ESPN Analytics), 75% (Mike Clay)

• Spread: Bears -6 (-290 moneyline)

• Future value: Fourth

• Availability: 80%

• ESPN Selection: 8%

6. Dallas Cowboys (at Indianapolis Colts)

This would purely be an selection play, as the Cowboys are unlikely to be popular this week. While they do have two more really strong weeks in Weeks 11 and 12 (vs. Titans, vs. Eagles), that might be it for them in terms of future value. And Week 11 should have plenty of other options. The Cowboys have already lost twice this season as even bigger favorites, but the Colts are quickly joining the NFL's bottom tier, so being able to fade them at low ownership is an appealing contrarian option.

• Chance to win: 61% (ESPN Analytics), 71% (Mike Clay)

• Spread: Cowboys -6 (-285 moneyline)

• Future value: 10th

• Availability: 85%

• ESPN Selection: 5%

7. Detroit Lions (at Miami Dolphins)