In a season full of big upsets, Week 6 featured the most carnage all season. 58% of the remaining ESPN Survivor entries were eliminated, leaving just 4% of the original 1.2 million entries still alive.
Last week's loss by the Los Angeles Rams against the Arizona Cardinals knocked out 35% of Survivor entries. Sadly, that also included this column's entry. The Rams became the first double-digit favorite to lose all season. The most popular Survivor pick has now lost in four of the first six weeks.
But that wasn't the only major upset. The Tennessee Titans got their first win of the year, overcoming a 13-0 deficit to upset the Indianapolis Colts, knocking out another 16% of entries. The only top-three favorite to win were the New England Patriots, who handled the New York Jets at home.
For those of you who survived, congratulations, but now you are facing one of the most difficult decisions of the season. The only team favored by more than a touchdown is the Houston Texans, hosting the New York Giants. Shockingly, ESPN's current selection on Houston as of Wednesday morning is just 12%, but I assume that number will grow significantly by Sunday. They will almost certainly be the chalk on Circa and Splash.
Every other team has major question marks. The Denver Broncos and San Francisco 49ers both face lesser opponents, but both are on the road, and do you really want to use the 49ers here if you still have them? Do you trust the Minnesota Vikings offense? Do you trust the Jets or Dallas Cowboys at all? How do you handle the Rams after last week's debacle in Arizona?
On ESPN, it's hard to get off the Texans as the top pick as of Wednesday morning based on the early-week selection numbers. However, if the Texans numbers rise as expected, they are by no means a must-play, with the Vikings and Jets both strong picks. If you are looking for a sub-10% play, one option is the Pittsburgh Steelers, who took sharp money early in the week against the Saints and allow you to burn a below-average team with reasonable win equity.
Note: Odds by DraftKings and subject to change. Future value based on Mike Clay's cheat sheet.
1. Houston Texans (vs. Giants)
As is often the case with the biggest favorite of the week, the biggest questions are selection rate and future value. On ESPN, the Texans are only 12% selected as of Wednesday morning, but I expect them to be over 20% in most groups with a chance of reaching over 30%. Keep an eye on your individual group's availability for Houston. The Texans are 77% available overall on ESPN, but that number is likely lower in competitive groups, which could help suppress their selection a bit.
Houston has an interesting schedule down the road where outside of Week 18 against the Titans, most of their easiest games come on the road (Week 9 at Los Angeles Chargers, Week 10 at Cleveland Browns, Week 11 vs. Indianapolis Colts, Week 14 at Washington Commanders, Week 16 at Philadelphia Eagles). None of those are must-play spots, but given the Texans' rising team quality and the possibility for those teams imploding, they could have more value down the road than meets the eye.
Chance to win: 84% (ESPN Analytics), 71% (Mike Clay)
Spread: Texans -10 (-520 moneyline)
Future value: 12th
Availability: 77%
ESPN Selection: 12%
2. New York Jets (vs. Dolphins)
This is the biggest test yet of the fade-the-Dolphins theory. The Jets are a bottom-10 team, and the only other week they'll be in Survivor consideration is Week 12 in Miami. Given that, I like the Jets more in double-pick pools, as you get to maintain the most flexibility going forward while giving up very little in immediate win equity. As scary as it is to rely on the Jets with so much of the pool already eliminated, the Jets dominated the Tennessee Titans in Week 1 and beat the Browns in Week 5, so they have played well against teams at or below their weight class this season. Plus, the defense has been dominant against the worst offenses on its schedule.
Chance to win: 66% (ESPN Analytics), 82% (Mike Clay)
Spread: Jets -4.5 (-230 moneyline)
Future value: 24th
Availability: 98%
ESPN Selection: 11%
3. Minnesota Vikings (vs. Colts)
The Vikings are also a strong pick this week. Similar to Houston, they have already been used by a significant percentage of the field. Their future value is limited after this week, though home games against the Commanders (Week 16), Atlanta Falcons (Week 12) and Carolina Panthers (Week 13) could look better down the road. They also visit the Jets in Week 17.
The Vikings are the second-biggest favorites in the betting market, though our two models have major disagreement. They are the biggest favorites of the week according to Mike Clay's model, though ESPN Analytics is way lower. Ultimately, given the Texans are significantly bigger favorites in the betting market, while our two models see very little difference between the Jets and Vikings, I break the tie slightly towards the Jets as the No. 2 pick.
Chance to win: 65% (ESPN Analytics), 84% (Mike Clay)
Spread: Vikings -6.5 (-278 moneyline)
Future value: 16th
Availability: 58%
ESPN Selection: 12%
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Saints)
The Steelers are the contrarian pick of the week, particularly if you have already used the Texans and Vikings. They have minimal future value, especially on Splash, where their only two remaining games with a win probability over 60% are Week 8 (vs. Browns) and Week 11 (at Eagles). They took sharp money early in the week to move the line from 2.5 to 3.5.
However, while I expect the three teams above them on this list to take up at least half of the remaining entries, the Steelers will likely remain less than 5% selected. If your path to make it to Week 7 involved a lot of chalk picks and the best teams in the NFL, pivoting to Pittsburgh could be a way to start to differentiate your entry.
Chance to win: 60% (ESPN Analytics), 81% (Mike Clay)
Spread: Steelers -3.5 (-180 moneyline)
Future value: 19th
Availability: 85%
ESPN Selection: 3%
5. Dallas Cowboys (at Eagles)
If you just look at win equity, team quality and projected selection, the Cowboys are underrated at fifth in these rankings. Much of the public will be scared off of them after laying eggs against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Green Bay Packers in primetime in each of the past two weeks.
However, as bad as the Cowboys have looked, they actually are a strong option in three of the next five weeks after this one. They host the Cardinals next week, the Titans in Week 11 and get a home rematch against the Eagles in Week 12. As banged up as the Eagles are, they still had a chance to win each of the last three weeks in the fourth quarter, and with this game being a division rivalry in Philadelphia, that's enough to prevent me from making the Cowboys a priority.
Chance to win: 69% (ESPN Analytics), 65% (Mike Clay)
Spread: Cowboys -4.5 (-218 moneyline)
Future value: 14th
Availability: 96%
ESPN Selection: 4%