Derrick Henry has continued to go toe to toe with Father Time like no running back in recent history. He is once again off to a hot start, scoring 22.7 fantasy points per game, fourth among RBs entering Week 5. Only Jahmyr Gibbs, Kenneth Walker III and Bijan Robinson have scored more fantasy points at the position. That is despite Henry being 10th at the position in yards from scrimmage (seven touchdowns in four games helps). Perhaps he'll score 30 TDs like he is on pace for, but it would not be wise to count on that.
Reasons for concern on Henry
When you dive into the numbers, there are worrisome signs. Looking at his stats since 2020, he is posting personal lows in a number of metrics, including yards per carry (tied), yards after contact per carry and max speed. In addition, his explosive run rate is the lowest it has been since he joined the Ravens. His forced missed tackles rate is the second lowest in this span, just ahead of last season. That is concerning because last season his rate was higher in the first month, and we saw it decline as the season went on.
One thing that has worked in Henry's favor is his 2.0 yards before contact (his highest in this sample), partly because he has faced loaded boxes at the lowest rate since 2021. Things have broken right for the King during the first month of the season. With QB Lamar Jackson injured now, you can expect teams to put their defensive focus on Henry and stack the box against him.
Henry has been known to finish strong, so I looked at only his first four weeks in this sample as well to see how it stacks up. He is below average in yards per carry, forced missed tackles rate, yards after contact -- which is by far his lowest in this sample -- explosive run rate, as well as average and max speed.
Typically, you would not overreact, as Henry has been plenty productive. However, with him set to turn 33 years old in less than three months, the declining metrics are concerning, especially because he is unlikely to keep scoring touchdowns at this rate. That means he is going to need his yardage totals to increase to remain at this fantasy pace.
Another issue is that he is not often used in the passing game. He has only seven targets on the season. That hurts his value in PPR leagues, as a running back target (on average) is worth 2.5 times as much as a carry.
It would not be a bad idea to make Henry available in your league and see what you could get in return. Could Henry be fine and continue to produce at an RB1 level? Certainly. But if you can move him for another top back or receiver, you mitigate any risk of a late-season/career drop-off.
Which players should you target in a trade for Henry?
Some RBs I would move him for are Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, James Cook III, Ashton Jeanty, Chase Brown and Kyren Williams, all of whom have fewer fantasy points than Henry at the moment. The top fantasy receivers are also an option.