November is here, and we are primed for one of the most exciting college basketball seasons ever, with the NCAA tournament expanding to 76 teams for the first time.
Further conference realignment has changed the landscape across the sport and, even with eligibility concerns still affecting some of the biggest programs in the country, college basketball never seems to disappoint.
Here are my best bets across the board as the season gets underway.
Michigan State Spartans to reach the Final Four: +450
If you read my conference winners preview, you know I'm picking the Spartans to win the Big Ten, but I'm confident enough in this team to win their first four games of the tournament as well. While it's a little early to start projecting seeds, Michigan State has all the makings of a 1-seed, but its path isn't as important as other teams. Led by the favorite to win the Wooden Award, point guard Jeremy Fears Jr., the Spartans return 61% of their minutes from last season's team that reached the Sweet 16.
The Spartans are deep, too, bringing back five of their seven top scorers from last season, and if you want to make a run in late March, you'll need that depth as games get tougher. Competition in conference play will be fierce, better preparing the Spartans for the tournament. The Final Four is just a short drive away in Detroit this season, so it would be fitting for Tom Izzo to get back there for the first time since 2019.
St. John's Red Storm to reach the Final Four: +590
Rick Pitino had to restock his roster for another run at a title this offseason and he did it with experienced players in the transfer portal. The Red Storm have only one returning starter from last season and have had to overcome a lot of eligibility concerns to put together a roster worthy of winning a national championship. Babacar Sane (Exhibit 10 contract with the Utah Jazz in 2024) and Keyshawn Hall (transfer from Auburn) await official rulings and are currently playing on separate temporary restraining orders. Both played in the season opener against Monmouth. Further court dates are pending, but as of publication time, both are eligible to play.
When all the smoke clears, Pitino will have a roster that will duel with UConn in the Big East. The Red Storm's ability to go deep into March will center around sophomore Tounde Yessoufou (17.8 PPG last season), a five-star transfer from Baylor who is attracting Wooden Award mentions and could be the new go-to-guy on offense. St. John's has progressed in each of the last two seasons and won back-to-back Big East titles. Now, Pitino finally has the roster to get the Red Storm back to the Final Four for the first time since 1985.
Thomas Haugh to win the Wooden Award: +850
Haugh was a major force on a Florida team that was a No. 1 seed heading into the NCAA tournament last season, and the Gators are primed to make a run again. Haugh also is a solid choice because some of the top choices have history working against them.
Tom Izzo has never coached a player who won the Wooden Award, putting history against the preseason favorite, Fears Jr. No school has ever had a Wooden Award winner in three straight seasons, stacking the deck against Duke's John Blackwell after Cooper Flagg and Cameron Boozer won it in each of the past two seasons. Add in the latest injury to David Mirkovic, who was already going to miss the start of the season in his recovery from foot surgery before he had an emergency appendectomy over the weekend, and that clears the way for Haugh as the new favorite at a decent price.
Being on a team that has national championship potential always helps players in contention for the Wooden Award and Florida certainly qualifies to push Haugh to the finish line here. With history working against his top competition, that value is there.
Pennsylvania Quakers to win the Ivy League: +235
Was there any reason to doubt Fran McCaffery? The former Quaker (Class of 1982) returned to his alma mater last season after 15 years at Iowa and won the Ivy League tournament to clinch an NCAA berth in his first season in Philadelphia. He returns four starters from the team that won nine of its final 10 league contests (including Ivy Madness), and in a position to have the best team in the conference.
The Quakers have the highest net rating in KenPom in the Ivy League entering the season and will continue to play at a fast pace like last season. The league's most dominant team last season, Yale, returns only one starter. Harvard is the favorite because it also returns four starters and will be formidable, but McCaffery gets the benefit of a second season with 6-9 TJ Power (18.5 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 47% on 3s against Ivy opponents), who started at Duke and Virginia before coming to Penn.
Queens University Royals to win the Atlantic Sun: +174
The ASUN looks wildly different this season with five programs departing for the United Athletic Conference, leaving the Royals as the team to beat. Queens returns more minutes played from last season than any other remaining team in the league and will continue to play at one of the faster paces in the country.
With both Central Arkansas and Austin Peay, the two top-rated teams in KenPom from last season, moving on, the Royals will have the most dominant offense and will beat you with tempo. And when you consider that five of the seven other ASUN teams had adjusted defensive efficiency ratings that ranked 286th or worse last season, the Royals' superior talent on the offensive end is unlikely to be stymied on their way to a regular-season title.
Saint Louis Billikens to win the Atlantic 10: +188
We are still waiting on official word that Robbie Avila will be playing for the Billikens this season. His next court date is Wednesday, so there is some trepidation with this bet. But there is still reason to like Saint Louis here again, even if a judge rules he can't play, because there is a lot of depth on this team. Kellen Thames and Trey Green earned preseason first-team all-conference honors, while Amari McCottry was named to the second team and Ishan Sharma to the third team.
In total, 59% of the minutes from last season's team are back on the floor this season (not counting Avila). Head coach Josh Schertz stayed in Saint Louis instead of leaving for a bigger program. The A-10 is top-heavy, with VCU and Dayton being the only real challengers for the top of the conference. If Avila is back, the Billikens take this one.
Fairfield Stags to win the Metro Conference: +500
We have programs changing conferences and we also have conferences changing names! Formerly, the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, sometimes jokingly known as the "other MA(A)C", is now the Metro Conference, but the same teams remain. There's some value here on the Stags behind preseason Player of the Year swingman Declan Wucherpfennig. He averaged 12.5 points and 8.5 rebounds last season, earning unanimous MAAC All-Rookie Team honors.
Fairfield also returns the most minutes from last season among Metro teams, which for this conference means something as there is a lot of turnover from season to season with players leaving for bigger schools. Merrimack will be near the top of the conference again, but lost last season's MAAC Player of the Year, Kevair Kennedy, to Wake Forest. Last season's NCAA tournament representative, Siena, lost head coach Gerry McNamara to his alma mater, Syracuse. This will be Fairfield's final season in the Metro before leaving for the Coastal Athletic Association next season.