A historic college basketball season gets underway as we prepare for the largest NCAA tournament ever with the field expanding to 76 teams. Whether that results in additional Power 5 schools with questionable résumés or stellar mid-major teams that beat lesser competition, more teams than ever before will be dancing.
Change is inevitable in college sports, given today's complicated landscape of the transfer portal and NIL. College basketball is no exception, and many teams look a lot different than those that were battling to cut down the nets last spring. Some programs have even changed conferences and will face different opponents than usual. All of this opens the door for a lot of variance this season.
Despite all the upheaval, there are still many familiar programs that will be top contenders all season long. While some schools have national championship aspirations, others are just thinking about an NCAA tournament berth. Both goals start with one thing, winning in the regular season.
Here are my best bets to win the conference regular-season titles in Power 5 leagues and and some of the top mid-majors as well.
Power 5 Conferences
ACC: Duke Blue Devils (-136)
Has anyone else in the ACC closed the gap on a Duke team that went 29-2 during the regular season last year? The answer is no. The scary part is that Duke may actually have widened the gap, bringing back three starters from last year's team in Caleb Foster, Patrick Ngongba II and Dame Sarr. Add in Cayden Boozer, transfer John Blackwell from Wisconsin (19.1 PPG last season) and the No. 2 recruiting class, highlighted by No. 5 overall prospect Cameron Williams and 17-year-old phenom Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje. This is the deepest team in the country and will be a juggernaut once again.
The Blue Devils will be tested early in the season with four matchups against top-six teams in the AP preseason poll in Michigan State, Illinois, UConn and Florida, all before Christmas. How they come out of that will say a lot about them and their depth, but no one in the ACC comes close at this point. Jon Scheyer's squad should head into the NCAA tournament with a No. 1 seed.
Big Ten: Michigan State Spartans (+465)
Tom Izzo heads into his 32nd season in East Lansing with a loaded roster paced by Blue Ribbon preseason National Player of the Year and the Big Ten preseason Player of the Year, Jeremy Fears Jr. He led the nation in assists last season at 9.4 per game and could easily average a double-double this season. Fears is joined by notable returners that include Coen Carr, Kur Teng, Jordan Scott and Cam Ward. This group accounts for 61% of the minutes played from last season.
Michigan State will be tested early this season as they face four top-15 teams in their nonconference schedule (Duke, Tennessee, Arkansas, Gonzaga), none of which will be played at home in East Lansing. That should prepare the Spartans for a very deep Big Ten that has 12 total teams ranked in the top 50 in KenPom's preseason rankings. They face conference favorite Illinois just once in Champaign, which is a game that could decide the conference winner. This team is built for March and has eyes on a national title, which has me liking them to win the Big Ten.
Big 12: Houston Cougars (+350)
The Cougars may be a little undervalued here given some of the uncertainty with conference foes Arizona and Kansas, who are both waiting on eligibility waivers for key players. Houston returns only one starter from last season in Joseph Tugler and just 23% of the minutes from that team. But that doesn't mean this roster isn't loaded and won't play its typical suffocating defense under Kelvin Sampson. Five transfers round out this Cougars roster that is still lacking some interior scoring, but their defense will continue to separate them from their competition.
Big East: UConn Huskies (+138)
I'm actually a little surprised at the Huskies still being plus-money here. This is a two-team race again between UConn and St. John's. The Red Storm have won the Big East two years in a row, but they have dropped off considerably from the team last year that went 18-2 in conference play.
UConn returns its elite backcourt duo from last season in Braylon Mullins and Silas Demary Jr., along with 57% of the minutes from a year ago. Add in three key transfers in Na'jai Hines from Seton Hall, Nik Khamenia from Duke and big man Oskar Giltay from Stanford, this is a roster that can return to the Final Four. Rick Pitino and St. John's won't go down easy, but the Huskies are the clear favorite here.
SEC: Arkansas Razorbacks (+1250)
This is a bit of a long shot here because on paper, no one is beating Florida. The Gators return a whopping eight players and 79% of their minutes from last season. But when it comes to pure talent -- and talent with a ton of upside -- this may be John Calipari's best team in Fayetteville. Billy Richmond III is the lone returning starter, but the incoming freshmen are ready to burst on the scene, highlighted by Jordan Smith Jr., a projected top-two pick in the NBA draft next summer.
The Razorbacks' offense projects in the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom and will continue to play at one of the fastest tempos in the country. Their elite athleticism will make things tough for every opponent. In a conference that boasts 12 teams inside the top 40 in overall adjusted efficiency, the SEC will cannibalize itself a bit, but I love the price here with a schedule that has them playing Florida just once (and it's at home), along with lone matchups against Tennessee and Texas. If they sweep Alabama, the Hogs could come out on top here.
MID-MAJORS
American: Wichita State Shockers (+250)
I'm not surprised to see the Shockers as the favorite here, but we have to acknowledge how tight things are at the top of this conference with Memphis, South Florida and Tulsa all having solid cases to win the league. The biggest lift for the Shockers is guard Kenyon Giles being ruled eligible to play for a fifth year thanks to a preliminary injunction. There's a chance things could change, but at this point, the Shockers are expecting to have him on their roster. Giles' 19.1 PPG return to a lineup that returned 10 players and 45% of their minutes from last season. Leading rebounder and American Conference Sixth Man of the Year William Berg also returns as a needed inside presence.
Wichita State finished tied for second in the American last season and made a run to the NIT quarterfinals. They look primed to take that next step this season.
Mid-American: Akron Zips (+245)
It's easy to remember the only team to have an undefeated 2025-26 regular season in Miami (Ohio). But many won't remember that the RedHawks dropped their first conference tournament game to UMass, and the actual best team in the MAC (according to KenPom) -- the Zips -- earned the automatic bid to the NCAA tournament.
The Zips lost a great deal of scoring from last season, as well as head coach John Groce (to Charleston), but there is some continuity here. Groce's longtime assistant Dustin Ford takes over the reins, and he hit the transfer portal hard, bringing in a ton of experience. And Evan Mahaffey, a preseason All-MAC second-team selection, is currently eligible in hopes of one more season. If he's playing, I'm in on the Zips, who have gone dancing in three straight seasons and four of the past five.
Atlantic-10: Saint Louis Billikens (+188)
The Billikens caught the eye of a lot of people last season with their blistering 3-point shooting and an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. Head coach Josh Schertz caught the eye of some major college programs that had head coaching openings, but Schertz passed on those opportunities to stay at SLU. This development is the biggest reason I'm picking them. The Billikens return five players from last season's tournament team and 59% of the minutes played, including guard Trey Green and forward Ishan Sharma, both of whom shot better than 41% from 3-point range last season.
And in the latest development, a judge has granted a temporary restraining order that could allow center Robbie Avila to play another season for the Billikens. His next court date is Nov. 4, and if Avila is back, I expect the same dominance from Saint Louis.
West Coast Conference: Santa Clara Broncos (+186)
The Broncos may be one of the more underrated programs in the country. The landscape of the WCC is now a lot different with Gonzaga departing for the Pac-12. It's one fewer major roadblock for them to win the conference this season, as Santa Clara is 6-54 against the Zags since 2000. That leaves Saint Mary's as their only true competition. The Broncos beat the Gaels twice last season, including in the conference tournament. Saint Mary's head coach Randy Bennett left for Arizona State, further opening the door for the Broncos.
Santa Clara pushed Kentucky to the limit in their NCAA tournament meeting and is looking to build off that experience. More will be asked of Jake Ensminger, a preseason All-WCC selection who returns to pace their offense after shooting 54% from the field last season. The Broncos could play even faster this season and should be the top-scoring offense in the WCC. It sets up a regular-season finale clash at home with the Gaels' defense, which is expected to be the best in the conference.