Caleb Williams returned for the Chicago Bears' Week 6 win over the Atlanta Falcons, and he played his most efficient game as a pro, completing 24 of 26 throws from inside the pocket. He was seeing it fast, playing as a ball distributor. Tight end Colston Loveland saw a boost in volume and the Bears controlled the tempo with running backs D'Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson. This is how Ben Johnson wants his offense to operate, using the run-pass balance while mixing in high-percentage throws for the quarterback with the screen package.
Defensively, look for the Bears to keep the blitz rate up versus New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye. With limited depth at cornerback and defensive end, coordinator Dennis Allen blitzed at a rate of better than 50% versus Atlanta, and his schemed fronts and coverages complement the pressure.
New England heads into Week 7 with a banged-up offensive line. Wide receiver Romeo Doubs (shoulder) is now on IR, too. The positive here is the play of Maye, who has bounced back from a rough start to the season to throw 10 touchdown passes over his last three games while also showcasing his running ability (103 rushing yards during this stretch). Maye's decision-making has improved, and he's throwing with better location. A.J. Brown returned in Week 6, and his presence will impact the Bears' coverage plans, while slot receiver DeMario Douglas can provide an outlet for Maye. The Patriots used a three-man rotation in the backfield last week, but expect Rhamondre Stevenson to still see the most volume and TreVeyon Henderson to be used as a change-of-pace runner versus a Bears defense allowing 4.5 YPC (25th).
Mike Vrabel's defense has to play a critical role here against Williams. The Patriots are allowing only 209 passing yards per game (11th), majoring in both single-high and split-safety zone coverage.
Betting outlook
The short week -- and a matchup between nonconference opponents -- gives me some pause when looking at the total. And I feel the same about the Patriots' recent backfield rotation. Does Stevenson get his 15-18 touches? It's something to think about if you are betting on the New England running backs. Maye's props as a runner are worth looking into, though. Maye has rushed for at least 24 yards in three straight games.
Above, I mentioned Williams playing as a ball distributor, which is a positive for the Bears offense, but it also can limit his receivers in terms of seeing heavy volume. However, the recent deployment of Loveland (seven targets last week) works here, as he also saw two end zone targets against Atlanta. Meanwhile, the Bears running backs will see volume, and the screen package we saw in Week 6 creates more opportunities for Luther Burden III and Swift.
Bets: Total points UNDER 50.5, Patriots +3
The Patriots and the Bears both rank in the top 10 in scoring defense. I like the under to hit. I'm leaning toward the Bears moneyline right now, but I'll take the Patriots to cover. Vrabel's team is 3-2-1 against the spread this season, and he has the defense to win third downs and red zone situations.
Notable player props, bets
Note: Odds by DraftKings
and subject to change.
Colston Loveland receiving yards OVER 43.5 receiving (-113)
Loveland has produced at least 57 yards receiving in two of his last three games, and he has seen 21 targets over that stretch. Plus, Johnson is scheming throws to his tight end.