The Baltimore Ravens and Atlanta Falcons both come into Sunday night playing well, but Atlanta has looked like a different team since quarterback Michael Penix Jr. returned. The Falcons have scored 80 points over their last two games, with Penix completing 73.3% of his passes. Bijan Robinson has been a big part of that success, rushing for 349 yards and four touchdowns during that stretch. Baltimore will have its hands full trying to slow him down.
The Ravens will be without Lamar Jackson because of an ankle injury. Tyler Huntley gets the start against a Falcons defense allowing a league-low 48.3 rushing yards per game. That doesn't bode well for Derrick Henry, despite his seven rushing touchdowns this season. Baltimore is also dealing with injuries along its offensive line, which could make things even more difficult.
I'm interested to see how Baltimore approaches defending Atlanta's running game. If the Ravens commit more defenders to stopping Robinson, Penix could have opportunities to make plays downfield. With OLB Trey Hendrickson also ruled out, that becomes an even bigger concern for Baltimore.
Betting outlook
I like the Falcons against the spread more than the total in this matchup. Atlanta is favored by three points after Baltimore opened as a 4.5-point favorite earlier in the week. Lamar Jackson being ruled out has a lot to do with that movement, but the Falcons have also played well enough to earn some respect from oddsmakers.
Atlanta has averaged 40 points and 459 total yards per game over its last two. The defense has also played well, especially against the run. That could be a problem for a Baltimore offense likely to rely heavily on Derrick Henry with Tyler Huntley starting at quarterback.
Atlanta has home-field advantage, a healthy starting quarterback, and a defense that should make life difficult for Huntley. I'm backing the Falcons.
Notable player props, bets
Note: Odds by DraftKings
and subject to change.
Bijan Robinson rushing yards OVER 87.5 (-114)
Robinson has cleared this line in each of his last two games, with at least 19 rushing attempts in both. Atlanta's offensive line has also played well, ranking 12th in run block win rate. The Ravens will be without OLB Trey Hendrickson, a significant loss for their defense that should benefit Robinson and the Falcons' running game.
Drake London receiving yards OVER 80.5 (-111)
London has been excellent since Penix returned, catching 14-of-16 targets for 290 yards over his last two games. He has accounted for 48.2% of Atlanta's receiving yards this season. The matchup against Baltimore is favorable, with the Ravens allowing the sixth-most yards to wide receivers. Penix has been effective in the vertical passing game, and Baltimore's defense has struggled to defend those throws this season.
Mark Andrews OVER 32.5 receiving yards (-115)
Andrews currently ranks as the TE16 in receiving yards with 149, having failed to reach 30 receiving yards in each of his last two games. However, he historically thrives when paired with quarterback Tyler Huntley, averaging 63.8 receiving yards across 10 career games played together. This week's matchup at Atlanta is highly favorable, as the Falcons' defense has allowed an opposing tight end (Pat Freiermuth, Darren Waller, and Juwan Johnson) to surpass that 30-yard mark in three of the past four weeks. -- Liz Loza