The Atlanta Falcons enter "Monday Night Football" feeling like they have a new lease on life.
After a disastrous first two weeks of the season with Cooper Rush starting at quarterback (with Michael Penix Jr. still recovering from ACL surgery and Tua Tagovailoa also injured), the Falcons looked like one of the worst teams in the league. But with Penix back in action in Week 3, the Falcons delivered a shocking 35-14 blowout of the Green Bay Packers. The Packers have plenty of their own problems offensively, but Penix played well (posting an 84.9 QBR) and the Falcons earned that win, giving them hope going forward.
The New Orleans Saints, meanwhile, sit at 1-2, but they were competitive in all three of the games they played. They lost to the Detroit Lions in overtime in Week 1, beat the Baltimore Ravens in Week 2 and then lost a back-and-forth affair with the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 3. QB Tyler Shough has delivered in key moments and ranks 15th in QBR so far, exceeding my expectations for him entering the season. The defense, however, has struggled. It ranks 28th in EPA per play, though perhaps part of that is because they have played against both the Lions and Ravens.
Betting outlook
The sneaky unit to watch here is the Falcons defense. It ranks 10th in EPA per play, fifth in run stop win rate and third in pass rush win rate. This is a group that is, quietly, dramatically exceeding expectations and should be able to slow down the Saints' offense.
Another reason I believe that? The Saints have converted third and fourth downs at a 56% clip, third best in the NFL. Even if I feel reasonably good about the Saints offense this year, that's not a category in which I would expect them to be among the league leaders. Late downs have all the leverage in terms of effect on a game, but are they as predictive of future offensive success than a team's entire breadth of work? I'm skeptical.
So while I won't be on either side here -- or even the total, because I worry about the Saints defense's ability to stop Penix and the Falcons offense -- one way I can take advantage of the analysis above in a team-level bet is to wager against the Saints' team total.
Bet: Saints team total UNDER 24.5 (-110)
Notable player props, bets
Note: Odds by DraftKings
and subject to change.
Brian Robinson Jr. rushing yards OVER 28.5 (-112)
Liz Loza: Robinson has recorded double-digit touches in two straight games. He has also cleared 30 rushing yards in three consecutive games and 50 in back-to-back efforts. In Week 3 -- with Penix back -- nearly 14% of Robinson's runs went for 10 or more yards. That sets up nicely against a Saints defense that is allowing 4.7 yards per carry. With the offense trending up, Robinson should flirt with 40 rushing yards on Monday night.
Chris Olave receptions UNDER 6.5 (+111)
Walder: Olave's open score (which measures a receiver's ability to get open on every route) has actually dropped from 77 last year to 59 so far this year, which would be a career low if he maintained that pace. He has managed a strong start by making up for it with what would be a career high in catch score. The problem going forward is that open score is far more stable and predictive of future production than catch score. Because of that, I'm betting his receptions line is a little optimistic.
Saints to NOT give up a sack on their first drive (-385)
Walder: Despite what I said above about the Falcons' pass rush and their defensive success overall, my model thinks this is a generous price for an unlikely event. And while the Saints are hurting in pass protection with LT Kelvin Banks Jr. on injured reserve, his replacement, Asim Richards, was OK last week, with a 51st percentile pass block win rate among tackles for the week. My model prices this at -609.