MLB betting tips for Saturday: Yordan Alvarez primed to leave the yard in Sacramento

The A's could have a hard time keeping Yordan Alvarez in the park on Saturday. Steph Chambers/Getty Images

All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I've created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.


Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz


Today's top batter prop bets

Yordan Alvarez | OVER 0.5 HR (+258)
Projection: 33% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.32 EV

Bryce Harper | OVER 0.5 RBI (+234)
Projection: 36% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.64 EV

Brett Callahan | UNDER 0.5 H+R+RBI (+136)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $28.79 EV

Tyler Heineman | UNDER 0.5 H+R+RBI (+110)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $23.38 EV

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Hayden Wesneski | UNDER 3.5 K (+128)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $26.13 EV

Quinn Mathews | OVER 4.5 K (-105)
Projection: 64% chance of this bet hitting, with a $26.92 EV

Dustin May | OVER 0.5 ER (-148)
Projection: 73% chance of this bet hitting, with a $32.05 EV

Bailey Ober | OVER 1.5 ER (-148)
Projection: 69% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.13 EV

THE BAT X: Team Projections

Top betting trends

Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today's action.

Arizona Diamondbacks Run Line:
The Diamondbacks have won six straight games against the spread. (+6.85 Units / 101% ROI). Current odds: 1 @ -155

Athletics Game Total Over:
The Athletics have gone over the game total in seven straight home games. (+7.00 Units / 92% ROI). Current odds: 9.5 @ -116

Los Angeles Angels Game Total Over:
The Angels have gone over the game total in six straight road games. (+6.00 Units / 92% ROI). Current odds: 7 @ -119

Los Angeles Dodgers Game Total Under:
The Dodgers have gone under the game total in five straight games. (+5.00 Units / 94% ROI). Current odds: 7.5 @ -119