We have three days left in the 2026 MLB regular season -- and still have several playoff races and seeds to decide, including two division races. The Chicago White Sox clinched a playoff spot on Thursday, making them perhaps the most shocking playoff team since the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays. But they still have their sights on a division title.
Across town, the Chicago Cubs also punched their ticket -- the first time the two clubs have ever clinched playoff berths on the same day, according to ESPN Research -- as Pete Crow-Armstrong became the seventh member of the 40/40 club. PCA has the NL MVP Award locked up, but he can still add the NL home run title to his ledger of awesomeness. Chicago baseball fans can now officially dream of the first White Sox-Cubs World Series since 1906.
Let's run down what's at stake this weekend, both in the playoff races and on the individual side.
Playoff races
AL Central
Cleveland Guardians: 83-76 (at Kansas City Royals)
Chicago White Sox: 82-77 (vs. Colorado Rockies)
Tiebreaker: White Sox over Guardians
This has been a fun race over the past 10 days or so, since the pair played an exciting series last week. Both teams have continued to play well. The Guardians won six in a row before a 1-0 loss on Wednesday, and a tired White Sox pitching staff delivered three one-run games last weekend against the Tigers.
Winning the division is important here: The winner will get the No. 2 seed and a bye into the division series and be able to rest its pitchers for a few days, which is especially important for a White Sox bullpen that has been pitching a ton of innings. Closer Grant Taylor, for example, has pitched more than one inning in his past five appearances, including one outing of seven outs. At least he has had five days off since last pitching Saturday, so he's ready to go for Chicago this weekend.
The Guardians have Gavin Williams starting Friday against Kansas City, with Tanner Bibee on Saturday and then Parker Messick if needed on Sunday. If the Guardians don't win the division, that would leave Foster Griffin as the likely Game 1 starter in the wild-card series, with Williams ready to go in Game 2. That's not an ideal scenario given Griffin has a 5.19 ERA since coming to Cleveland at the trade deadline.
The White Sox line up Sean Burke, Davis Martin and Anthony Kay against the Rockies.
NL wild card
San Diego Padres: 89-70 (vs. Arizona Diamondbacks)
Chicago Cubs: 88-71 (at Boston Red Sox)
Philadelphia Phillies: 87-72 (vs. Tampa Bay Rays)
Arizona Diamondbacks: 85-74 (at Padres)
Tiebreakers: Cubs over Padres, Phillies and Diamondbacks; Phillies over Padres; Diamondbacks over Phillies; Padres and Diamondbacks are tied 5-5 heading into final series
Ahh, this is a little complicated, especially since Arizona won five in a row heading into Friday to remain alive. The above tiebreakers are just the head-to-head tiebreakers for a two-way tie. If three or more clubs are tied it goes to winning percentage in games against each. That order goes like this and is already set, no matter what happens in the Diamondbacks-Padres series:
1. Cubs (.789)
2. Phillies (.526)
3. Diamondbacks (best they can do is .520)
4. Padres (best they can do is .360)
The Cubs, with their win Thursday, have clinched a playoff spot since they win the tiebreaker scenarios. But how much does seeding matter? The Padres are the team with a notable home/road split, going 49-29 at home and 39-41 on the road, so they'd love to grab that No. 4 seed and host the wild-card series. The Cubs' game Sunday in Boston has already been moved to Friday as part of a doubleheader because of weather concerns. Here are the likely starters for each team this weekend:
Padres: Casey Mize, Walker Buehler, Michael King
Cubs: Clay Holmes, David Peterson, undecided
Phillies: Cristopher Sanchez, bullpen game, Zack Wheeler
Diamondbacks: Zac Gallen, Brandon Pfaadt, Michael Soroka
The big note here: The Padres and Phillies would obviously love to clinch before Sunday, so they can have King and Wheeler, respectively, lined up for Game 1 of the wild-card series. Matthew Boyd started Thursday for the Cubs, so that probably leaves Kevin Gausman as the Game 1 starter Tuesday (or Shota Imanaga, but his home run issues are a problem). Arizona ace Eduardo Rodriguez started Thursday, so he would be ready Tuesday if the Diamondbacks pull off the miracle.
AL West
Texas Rangers: 79-80 (at Minnesota Twins)
Houston Astros: 79-80 (at Athletics)
Tiebreaker: Astros over Rangers
Yes, dear readers, we might get our first sub-.500 division champion. It probably would have happened in the AL West in 1994, when the Rangers were 52-62, but the strike hit. For now, the worst record for a division winner belongs to the 2005 Padres, who won the NL West with an 82-80 record. This has been the division nobody wants to win: The Rangers are 11-10 in September after their win Thursday, and the Astros are 8-12.
The weekend's starting pitchers:
Rangers: Jacob deGrom, undecided, MacKenzie Gore
Astros: Hayden Wesneski, Hunter Brown, undecided
Neither team will be in great shape with their starting pitchers entering the wild-card series. Cal Quantrill had been pitching great for the Rangers but injured his lat in his last start and landed on the 60-day IL. Cristian Javier would be slated to start Sunday for the Astros, but he left his start Tuesday after two innings. Kumar Rocker for the Rangers and Peter Lambert for the Astros would be the guys to start Game 1 since they pitched Thursday.
NL seeding
Milwaukee Brewers: 100-59 (vs. St. Louis Cardinals)
Los Angeles Dodgers: 97-62 (at San Francisco Giants)
Tiebreakers: Brewers over Dodgers
The Brewers clinched the No. 1 seed on Thursday with a win and a loss by the Dodgers; the Braves' loss to the Reds on Thursday locked them into the No. 3 seed and clinched a bye for the Dodgers.
How has the top overall seed done in the postseason? Though baseball's playoffs are widely regarded as having a more random nature than other sport, over the past 10 seasons, four of the top teams did win the World Series and two others reached it. Of course, there have always been the anomalies -- like in 2021, when the Braves won it all after finishing the regular season with the 12th-best record in the majors, or 2023, when we had a World Series matchup between the Rangers (tied for sixth-best record) and Diamondbacks (tied for 12th).
Here's what this weekend's starters look like for each team:
Brewers: Robert Gasser, Dustin May, Jacob Misiorowski
Dodgers: Tarik Skubal, Blake Snell, undecided
Braves: Grant Holmes, Martin Perez, undecided
Misiorowski last pitched Sunday, when he threw 44 pitches in three innings while pitching on four days' rest for the first time since July 7. The first game of the NLDS won't be until Oct. 3, so that would give him five days of rest before his Game 1 start. Like his last outing, it might be an abbreviated one to keep him as fresh as possible for that first October game.
Of note: The NL division series schedules have one fewer off day than the AL series, with off days after Games 2 and 4, so Misiorowski probably would return in a potential Game 5, pitching on five days' rest. In the AL, the Game 1 starter could return for Game 4 on four days' rest. For the Brewers, that also means they will need four starters in the NLDS, when only Misiorowski and Logan Henderson look dependable right now. May has been pulled in the third inning of his past two starts, which could push Gasser into the No. 3 role (Kyle Harrison looks like a complete nonfactor right now).
Keep in mind that the Brewers used an opener in four of their nine playoff games last year, so that's a possibility -- although the more likely scenario is that manager Pat Murphy has quick hooks with Gasser and May and relies on his bullpen.
AL final seeds
Boston Red Sox: 85-74 (vs. Chicago Cubs)
Cleveland Guardians: 83-76 (at Kansas City Royals)
Chicago White Sox: 82-77 (vs. Colorado Rockies)
Cleveland's 1-0 over the Red Sox on Thursday means it's not yet a lock that the Red Sox will play the Yankees in a wild-card series repeat of 2025. The AL Central winner is locked in as the No. 2 seed, while the loser is "battling" the Red Sox for the fifth seed. Of course, due to the wackiness of the bracket setup, you'd rather be the sixth seed, which is the side of the bracket to play the AL West winner rather than the Yankees (and then the Rays).
So, the two scenarios were we go to the tiebreaker:
All three teams end up at 85-77. The White Sox win the AL Central while the Guardians are the fifth seed and the Red Sox the sixth. Cleveland and Boston the season series, but Cleveland gets the higher seed because they have a better record within their division (27-22 so far) than Boston does in the AL East (25-27).
The Guardians win the AL Central at 86-76 while the Red Sox and White Sox finish 85-77. Boston is the fifth since they went 6-0 against Chicago.
Got it? Which leaves the question: How many of their best pitchers will the Red Sox use against the Cubs? Brayan Bello is scheduled to pitch one of the doubleheader games on Friday, but Sonny Gray is done until the postseason and Payton Tolle and Ranger Suarez just pitched on Wednesday and Thursday, so it will be back-end starters and relievers in the other two games.
Statistical races
Yordan Alvarez tries to lock up MVP
This was a Triple Crown chase a few weeks ago, but Pete Alonso has opened an eight-RBI lead over Alvarez, so the Astros slugger probably will have to settle for the MVP Award instead. The question: Do the Astros need to win the division for Alvarez to win? I don't think so. Though we're likely to see a scattered vote, with Alvarez, Junior Caminero, Bobby Witt Jr. and maybe Cam Schlittler all receiving first-place votes, Alvarez is probably the only player who is going to land first or second on just about every ballot.
Caminero has the advantage of having Drew Rasmussen and Nick Martinez as teammates on the mound, while Alvarez had Mike Burrows and Tatsuya Imai. But as hitters, Alvarez has been much better: He has created an estimated 151 runs heading into Thursday's games compared to 107 for Caminero (who also ranks behind Ben Rice, Alonso and Miguel Vargas). And since Alvarez has the much higher on-base percentage -- .432 to 360 -- and Caminero has also grounded into 26 double plays, Alvarez has created more runs while using far fewer outs. He's the best hitter in baseball this year and it's not close. That should get him MVP honors.
Who will finish with the most home runs?
AL: Alvarez, Alonso, Caminero and Rice are all sitting on 41 home runs**. The last home run tie came in 2021, when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Salvador Perez led the AL with 48. There has never been a three-way tie ... but there was a four-way tie in the AL in the strike-shortened season of 1981, when Eddie Murray, Dwight Evans, Bobby Grich and Tony Armas all hit 22.
NL: Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Schwarber are tied with 45**. Schwarber is looking to lead the league for the second straight season and the third time since he joined the Phillies in 2022.
Who wins the batting title?
AL: Alvarez (.316**) and Chandler Simpson (.309**) are the only AL batters hitting .300.
NL: Luis Arraez (.312**) leads Gabriel Moreno (.310) with Otto Lopez (.304) needing a super finish. Arraez is going for his fourth batting crown, and Moreno would be the first catcher to lead since Buster Posey in 2012.
Will Alonso make history?
If Alonso does hold on to his RBI lead, he'll become the first player to lead both leagues in RBIs after leading the NL with 131 in 2022 while with the Mets.
A few other races:
• NL RBIs: Alec Burleson (112) leads Sal Stewart (110**) with Crow-Armstrong at 107. Not exactly the top contenders in March. Stewart would become the first rookie to lead his league since Walt Dropo of the 1950 Red Sox (some guy named Ted Williams is the only other rookie to do it).
• MLB strikeout leader: Misiorowski leads Cleveland's Williams, 247 to 244. Misiorowski also leads Schlittler for the overall major league lead in ERA, 1.86 to 1.94.
• A swing and a miss: Colston Montgomery tied Mark Reynolds' single-season record of 223 strikeouts Thursday, so he looks like a sure thing to break that. But Schwarber is close behind with 218 strikeouts.
Saying goodbye
This is the final weekend for Justin Verlander ... and maybe Max Scherzer?
Verlander has announced his retirement, so we know his start Saturday at Comerica Park will be the final one of his illustrious first-ballot Hall of Fame career. Verlander has made only one start for the Detroit Tigers this season after returning to the team that drafted him No. 2 in 2004 (the Padres selected Matt Bush in front of him, one of the biggest draft mistakes of all time).
The three-time Cy Young winner looked like a potential 300-game winner in 2019, when he had 225 wins through his age-36 season and was coming off a 21-win and Cy Young season for the Astros. But Verlander pitched only once in 2020 before his elbow surrendered to time and then sat out all of 2021. Remarkably, he came back in 2022 and won another Cy Young Award with an 18-win season and career-low 1.75 ERA. At the time, 300 wins remained a possibility -- and a goal.
But he would go just 22-26 over the next four seasons, leaving him at 266 wins entering his final career start. After Scherzer and his 224 wins, next on the active wins list are Gerrit Cole at 163 and Chris Sale at 159. We're not only not going to see a 300-game winner for ... well, who knows ... but we might not even see a 200-game winner for a long time. Indeed, Verlander and Scherzer will go down as perhaps the last of the true old-school guys who pitched 200-plus innings -- and more at their peak -- year after year.
Scherzer, who has a 6.14 ERA in 17 starts this season, hasn't officially announced his retirement, recently saying he'll have an announcement on his future in the coming days. He just pitched on Wednesday but might come back on short rest to make one final start at home for his Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday. Maybe he wants to try to pass his former teammate on the all-time strikeout list: Verlander is eighth with 3,554 strikeouts, while Scherzer is four behind at 3,550.
The two were teammates for five seasons in Detroit, where they had, let us say, a bit of a rivalry. Here's hoping Scherzer gets one last opportunity, if this is indeed the end, and finishes in a dead heat with Verlander. Then they can enter Cooperstown together.