There's no way you'd be tipping Collingwood to win this year's premiership if your life depended on making the right pick.
There's clearly better-equipped teams than the Pies in the running for the flag. Collingwood has injury concerns, a tough run home, and not the same depth of top-end talent as the hotter favourites.
And yet after Saturday night's fifth consecutive win, this time over Carlton, there's one thing that seems increasingly difficult to dispute. That nobody is going to relish playing Collingwood in September.
The funny thing about the Magpies under Craig McRae is that whenever people start looking for reasons they can't keep doing it, they simply revert to doing what they've always done best.
They become organised. They become disciplined. They become ruthlessly committed to their system. And that commitment to system over individual talent continues to hold them in good stead.
That was the case even in the glorious premiership year of 2023, when Collingwood ranked No.1 in only two of 32 statistical categories provided by Champion Data.
Significantly, those areas were points from the defensive half and defensive midfield to inside 50 transition. Significant, because Collingwood's ball movement has been a lot better over this recent winning period than it had been for much of this season.
You don't even really need the numbers to see that, either. All you need is the recent performances of key forwards Dan McStay and Tim Membrey. The former has kicked eight goals in the past three games, the latter 13 in five games, as good a spell as he's had in his time in black-and-white.
That form has in no small measure been aided by some quicker, cleaner delivery into a forward 50 now with a bit of room to move, even without the presence of the likes of Jamie Elliott and Lachie Schultz.
Hats off, too, to the patience of the Collingwood brains trust with some of the lesser lights who are usually the first suspects put up against the wall when the Magpies underperform.
Angus Anderson reminds some of us older types of fictional Magpie skipper Danny Rowe from the classic Australian play turned movie 'The Club', and there's something refreshingly old fashioned about the way he plays, too. He's been a handy addition for the Pies this year.
Ed Allan and Harvey Harrison are both continuing to make progress, and Saturday night was a taste of what young key forward Charlie West has to offer.
The pre-season feeling that the Pies needed all hands on deck to have a chance in 2026 hasn't altered, hence the pessimism at the loss for the season of Elliott and skipper Darcy Moore. But the future for Collingwood is perhaps a fair bit brighter than many would have believed.
And yes, much of that I believe still goes beyond the nuts and bolts of the list. It's in the philosophy and self-belief coach Craig McRae has instilled in his playing group across five years now.
Of course, Nick Daicos is a massive part of any Collingwood plans. And we got a sample of how difficult life can be without him when the Pies were smashed by Brisbane at the Gabba back at Easter time.
But there are few, if any other Magpies, who can't be replaced by an alternative who can at least keep the Pies consistently competitive.
The Magpies also remain one of the competition's best-drilled teams without the ball. Their pressure is coordinated rather than frantic. Their defenders trust the players in front of them. Their midfield works tirelessly both ways.
There are more physically imposing teams in the AFL. There are probably more naturally gifted ones too. There may not be another side, however, in which 23 players so consistently understand and execute their responsibilities.
That's coaching. And as this columnist has said repeatedly over the past few years, McRae is an extremely adept one.
There's no doubt the Pies are going to be massively tested in the run home, starting on Thursday with their return to the scene of last year's famous qualifying final victory over Adelaide.
There's MCG clashes with Geelong, Hawthorn and Brisbane again, and even West Coast in Perth is far from the "gimme" it looked a while back. Indeed, the Eagles have already pushed Collingwood all the way this season at the 'G' in Scott Pendlebury's record-breaking game.
But it wasn't long ago we were asking whether this group was finished. Now, once again, the question is just how far can it go?
No, they're far from the deepest list in the competition. Nor, clearly, the most talented. But there's a decent argument they do possess the competition's clearest identity.
Everyone knows precisely how Collingwood wants to play. More importantly, everyone within the team appears prepared to play that way.
That doesn't guarantee any sort of success in September. But it does at least guarantee this. That if you're another club with genuine flag aspirations, Collingwood won't be appearing anywhere on your September wish list.
You can read more of Rohan Connolly's work at FOOTYOLOGY.